Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022
Research article
 | Highlight paper
24 Nov 2022
Research article  | Highlight paper | 24 Nov 2022

Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models

Isobel M. Parry et al.

Model code and software

Evidence-of-localised-Amazon-rainforest-dieback-in-CMIP6-models I. Parry, P. Ritchie, and P. Cox https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7038389

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3-Veg model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 EC-Earth Consortium https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4507

NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 J. P. Krasting, J. G. John, C. Blanton, C. McHugh, S. Nikonov, A. Radhakrishnan, K. Rand, N. T. Zadeh, V. Balaji, J. Durachta, C. Dupuis, R. Menzel, T. Robinson, S. Underwood, H. Vahlenkamp, K. A. Dunne, P. P. G. Gauthier, P. Ginoux, S. M. Griffies, R. Hallberg, M. Harrison, W. Hurlin, S. Malyshev, V. Naik, F. Paulot, D. J. Paynter, J. Ploshay, B. G. Reichl, D. M. Schwarzkopf, C. J. Seman, L. Silvers, B. Wyman, Y. Zeng, A. Adcroft, J. P. Dunne, R. Dussin, H. Guo, J. He, I. M. Held, L. W. Horowitz, P. Lin, P. C. D. Milly, E. Shevliakova, C. Stock, M. Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, Y. Xie, and M. Zhao https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8473

MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, M. Bittner, S. Legutke, M. Schupfner, F. Wachsmann, V. Gayler, H. Haak, P. de Vrese, T. Raddatz, T. Mauritsen, J.-S. von Storch, J. Behrens, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, T. Crueger, I. Fast, S. Fiedler, S. Hagemann, C. Hohenegger, T. Jahns, S. Kloster, S. Kinne, G. Lasslop, L. Kornblueh, J. Marotzke, D. Matei, K. Meraner, U. Mikolajewicz, K. Modali, W. Müller, J. Nabel, D. Notz, K. Peters-von Gehlen, R. Pincus, H. Pohlmann,J. Pongratz, S. Rast, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, U. Schulzweida, K. Six, B. Stevens, A. Voigt, and E. Roeckner https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6435

NCC NorCPM1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 I. Bethke, Y. Wang, F. Counillon, M. Kimmritz, F. Fransner, A. Samuelsen, H. R. Langehaug, P.-G. Chiu, M. Bentsen, C. Guo, A. Kirkevåg, D. J. L. Oliviè, Ø. Seland, Y. Fan, P. Lawrence, T. Eldevik, and N. Keenlyside https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10861

SNU SAM0-UNICON model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 S. Park and J. Shin https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7782

AS-RCEC TaiESM1.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 W.-L. Lee and H.-C. Liang https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.9702

MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 Y. Tang, S. Rumbold, R. Ellis, D. Kelley, J. Mulcahy, A. Sellar, J. Walton, and C. Jones https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5792

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Chief editor
The health of the amazon ecosystem is a key indicator of the health of our planet. Hence, the editor feels that this paper will attract the attention of a broad audience and the media.
Short summary
Despite little evidence of regional Amazon rainforest dieback, many localised abrupt dieback events are observed in the latest state-of-the-art global climate models under anthropogenic climate change. The detected dieback events would still cause severe consequences for local communities and ecosystems. This study suggests that 7 ± 5 % of the northern South America region would experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 °C.
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