Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest  dieback in CMIP6 models

Parry, Isobel M.; Ritchie, Paul D. L.; Cox, Peter M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022

Articles | Volume 13, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 13, issue 4

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

24 Nov 2022

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 24 Nov 2022

Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models

Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Peter M. Cox

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022-supplement

Model code and software

Evidence-of-localised-Amazon-rainforest-dieback-in-CMIP6-models I. Parry, P. Ritchie, and P. Cox https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7038389

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3-Veg model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 EC-Earth Consortium https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4507

NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 J. P. Krasting, J. G. John, C. Blanton, C. McHugh, S. Nikonov, A. Radhakrishnan, K. Rand, N. T. Zadeh, V. Balaji, J. Durachta, C. Dupuis, R. Menzel, T. Robinson, S. Underwood, H. Vahlenkamp, K. A. Dunne, P. P. G. Gauthier, P. Ginoux, S. M. Griffies, R. Hallberg, M. Harrison, W. Hurlin, S. Malyshev, V. Naik, F. Paulot, D. J. Paynter, J. Ploshay, B. G. Reichl, D. M. Schwarzkopf, C. J. Seman, L. Silvers, B. Wyman, Y. Zeng, A. Adcroft, J. P. Dunne, R. Dussin, H. Guo, J. He, I. M. Held, L. W. Horowitz, P. Lin, P. C. D. Milly, E. Shevliakova, C. Stock, M. Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, Y. Xie, and M. Zhao https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8473

MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, M. Bittner, S. Legutke, M. Schupfner, F. Wachsmann, V. Gayler, H. Haak, P. de Vrese, T. Raddatz, T. Mauritsen, J.-S. von Storch, J. Behrens, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, T. Crueger, I. Fast, S. Fiedler, S. Hagemann, C. Hohenegger, T. Jahns, S. Kloster, S. Kinne, G. Lasslop, L. Kornblueh, J. Marotzke, D. Matei, K. Meraner, U. Mikolajewicz, K. Modali, W. Müller, J. Nabel, D. Notz, K. Peters-von Gehlen, R. Pincus, H. Pohlmann,J. Pongratz, S. Rast, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, U. Schulzweida, K. Six, B. Stevens, A. Voigt, and E. Roeckner https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6435

NCC NorCPM1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 I. Bethke, Y. Wang, F. Counillon, M. Kimmritz, F. Fransner, A. Samuelsen, H. R. Langehaug, P.-G. Chiu, M. Bentsen, C. Guo, A. Kirkevåg, D. J. L. Oliviè, Ø. Seland, Y. Fan, P. Lawrence, T. Eldevik, and N. Keenlyside https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10861

SNU SAM0-UNICON model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 S. Park and J. Shin https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7782

AS-RCEC TaiESM1.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 W.-L. Lee and H.-C. Liang https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.9702

MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2 Y. Tang, S. Rumbold, R. Ellis, D. Kelley, J. Mulcahy, A. Sellar, J. Walton, and C. Jones https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5792

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Short summary

Despite little evidence of regional Amazon rainforest dieback, many localised abrupt dieback events are observed in the latest state-of-the-art global climate models under anthropogenic climate change. The detected dieback events would still cause severe consequences for local communities and ecosystems. This study suggests that 7 ± 5 % of the northern South America region would experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 °C.