Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Research article
 | 
28 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 28 Oct 2022

Exploring the relationship between temperature forecast errors and Earth system variables

Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Sungmin O, Alexander Brenning, Randal D. Koster, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Ulrich Weber, Gabriele Arduini, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, and René Orth

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Short summary
Subseasonal forecasts facilitate early warning of extreme events; however their predictability sources are not fully explored. We find that global temperature forecast errors in many regions are related to climate variables such as solar radiation and precipitation, as well as land surface variables such as soil moisture and evaporative fraction. A better representation of these variables in the forecasting and data assimilation systems can support the accuracy of temperature forecasts.
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