Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Research article
 | 
04 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 04 Jul 2022

A non-stationary extreme-value approach for climate projection ensembles: application to snow loads in the French Alps

Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin

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Latest update: 06 Nov 2025
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Short summary
Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
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