Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Research article
04 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 04 Jul 2022

A non-stationary extreme-value approach for climate projection ensembles: application to snow loads in the French Alps

Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin

Data sets

The S2M meteorological and snow cover reanalysis in the French mountainous areas (1958-present) M. Vernay, M. Lafaysse, P. Hagenmuller, R. Nheili, D. Verfaillie, and S. Morin

2013 Global mean temperature of CMIP5 monthly historical and RCP experiments KNMI

Model code and software

guillaumeevin/pynonstationarygev: pynonstationarygev (v1.0.0) G. Evin

Short summary
Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Final-revised paper