Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Apr 2021
Research article |
| 26 Apr 2021
| 26 Apr 2021
Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Jon I. Robson
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Matthew Menary
LOCEAN, Sorbonne Universités, Paris, France
Rowan T. Sutton
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Adam Blaker
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, UK
Agathe Germe
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, UK
Jöel J.-M. Hirschi
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, UK
Bablu Sinha
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, UK
Leon Hermanson
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Stephen Yeager
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Prediction, College Station, TX, USA
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Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
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Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
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Short summary
Short summary
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Gokhan Danabasoglu, Frederic S. Castruccio, Burcu Boza, Alice M. Barthel, Arne Biastoch, Adam Blaker, Alexandra Bozec, Diego Bruciaferri, Frank O. Bryan, Eric P. Chassignet, Yao Fu, Ian Grooms, Catherine Guiavarc'h, Hakase Hayashida, Andrew McC. Hogg, Ryan M. Holmes, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrew E. Kiss, M. Susan Lozier, Gustavo Marques, Alex Megann, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Dave Storkey, Luke van Roekel, Jon Wolfe, Xiaobiao Xu, and Rong Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5406, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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A comparison of simulated and observed overturning transports across the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program sections for the 2014–2022 period is presented. Eighteen ocean simulations participate in the study. The simulated transports are in general agreement with observations. Analyzing overturning circulations in both depth and density space together provides a more complete picture of the overturning properties. The study serves as a benchmark for evaluation of ocean models.
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, Etienne Tourigny, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1923–1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025, 2025
Short summary
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We present 30 year long initialized climate predictions run with the EC-Earth3 model. The predictions show high skill in most regions for near-surface temperatures, with some added skill from initialization for the first decade, but only very limited added skill beyond. The predictions exhibit drift associated with a persistent slowdown in Atlantic Meridonial Overturning Circulation , leaving the initialised predictions in a different climate state than the historical climate simulations.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
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In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Carmine Donatelli, Christopher M. Little, Rui M. Ponte, and Stephen G. Yeager
Ocean Sci., 21, 2367–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2367-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2367-2025, 2025
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Assessing the spatiotemporal properties of intrinsic sea level variability is vital to improving predictions of coastal sea level changes. Here, we examined intrinsic sea level variability along the Southeast United States coast, an area of high and increasing societal vulnerability to sea level change, using numerical modeling. Our findings reveal that intrinsic coastal sea level variability is not negligible as previously thought and may exhibit predictability despite its chaotic nature.
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Pablo Ortega, and Markus G. Donat
Ocean Sci., 21, 2283–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2283-2025, 2025
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The overshoot scenarios, in which temperatures exceed the targets of the Paris Agreement and are brought back afterwards with a net-negative emission strategy, are known to activate irreversible processes in the climate system. This work analyses in detail the impact of some of these mechanisms, with a particular focus on those associated with ocean circulation and sea ice changes.
Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran López-Martí, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658, 2025
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Short summary
Short summary
The paper assessed the impact of horizontal resolution of the EC-Earth climate model on its ability to predict El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The high-resolution simulations show better forecast skill linked to improved simulation of the tropical Pacific mean state and teleconnections with the equatorial Atlantic. However, the remaining poor skill in the western Pacific highlights the importance of better understanding ENSO simulation errors and mean state biases to improve forecasts.
Roberto Bilbao, Thomas J. Aubry, Matthew Toohey, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, and Etienne Tourigny
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 6239–6254, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025, 2025
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Large volcanic eruptions are unpredictable and can have significant climatic impacts. If one occurs, operational decadal forecasts will become invalid and must be rerun including the volcanic forcing. By analyzing the climate response in EC-Earth3 retrospective predictions, we show that idealised forcings produced with two simple models could be used in operational decadal forecasts to account for the radiative impacts of the next major volcanic eruption.
Eneko Martin-Martinez, Amanda Frigola, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Daria Kuznetsova, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1343–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025, 2025
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We investigate the impact of model resolution on different processes in the North Atlantic using three different resolutions of the same climate model. The higher resolutions allow for the explicit simulation of smaller-scale processes. We found differences across resolutions in how denser waters are formed and transported southward, impacting the large-scale circulation of the Atlantic Ocean.
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Verfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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We simulated the Antarctic climate from 1985 to 2014. Our model is driven using the ERA-5 reanalysis for one simulation and the EC-Earth global climate model for three others. Most of the simulated trends, such as sea ice extent and precipitation over land, have opposite signs for the two drivers, but agree between the three EC-Earth driven simulations. We conclude that these opposing trends must be due to the different drivers, and that the climate over land is less predictable than over sea.
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Jenni Kontkanen, Irina Sandu, Mario Acosta, Mohammed Hussam Al Turjmam, Ivan Alsina-Ferrer, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Leo Arriola, Marvin Axness, Marc Batlle Martín, Peter Bauer, Tobias Becker, Daniel Beltrán, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Sebastien Cabaniols, Silvia Caprioli, Miguel Castrillo, Aparna Chandrasekar, Suvarchal Cheedela, Victor Correal, Emanuele Danovaro, Paolo Davini, Jussi Enkovaara, Claudia Frauen, Barbara Früh, Aina Gaya Àvila, Paolo Ghinassi, Rohit Ghosh, Supriyo Ghosh, Iker González, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Ioan Hadade, Christopher Haine, Carl Hartick, Utz-Uwe Haus, Shane Hearne, Heikki Järvinen, Bernat Jiménez, Amal John, Marlin Juchem, Thomas Jung, Jessica Kegel, Matthias Kelbling, Kai Keller, Bruno Kinoshita, Theresa Kiszler, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Joonas Kolstela, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Aleksander Lacima-Nadolnik, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, Jonni Lehtiranta, Tuomas Lunttila, Anna Luoma, Pekka Manninen, Alexey Medvedev, Sebastian Milinski, Ali Omar Abdelazim Mohammed, Sebastian Müller, Devaraju Naryanappa, Natalia Nazarova, Sami Niemelä, Bimochan Niraula, Henrik Nortamo, Aleksi Nummelin, Matteo Nurisso, Pablo Ortega, Stella Paronuzzi, Xabier Pedruzo Bagazgoitia, Charles Pelletier, Carlos Peña, Suraj Polade, Himansu Pradhan, Rommel Quintanilla, Tiago Quintino, Thomas Rackow, Jouni Räisänen, Maqsood Mubarak Rajput, René Redler, Balthasar Reuter, Nuno Rocha Monteiro, Francesc Roura-Adserias, Silva Ruppert, Susan Sayed, Reiner Schnur, Tanvi Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Outi Sievi-Korte, Albert Soret, Christian Steger, Bjorn Stevens, Jan Streffing, Jaleena Sunny, Luiggi Tenorio, Stephan Thober, Ulf Tigerstedt, Oriol Tinto, Juha Tonttila, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Lauri Tuppi, Ginka Van Thielen, Emanuele Vitali, Jost von Hardenberg, Ingo Wagner, Nils Wedi, Jan Wehner, Sven Willner, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Florian Ziemen, and Janos Zimmermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2198, 2025
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The Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) pioneers the operationalisation of climate projections. The system produces global simulations with local granularity for adaptation decision-making. Applications are embedded to generate tailored indicators. A unified workflow orchestrates all components in several supercomputers. Data management ensures consistency and streaming enables real-time use. It is a complementary innovation to initiatives like CMIP, CORDEX, and climate services.
Stephen E. Darby, Ivan D. Haigh, Melissa Wood, Bui Duong, Tien Le Thuy Du, Thao Phuong Bui, Justin Sheffield, Hal Voepel, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3506, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We use model simulations to see what changes have been occurring to Mekong and Red River flows, 1970–2019, due to changes in tropical cyclone (TC)-linked precipitation. Results suggest that the highest river flows in multiple sub-catchments have been increasing over time, with coastal zones most intensely affected due to the combination of TC track and wet soils from prior rainfall. Climate change may exacerbate this TC-linked risk in the future making it a topic of strategic importance.
Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1001–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025, 2025
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Climate models can be used to skilfully predict decadal changes in North Atlantic ocean heat content. However, significant regional differences among these models reveal large uncertainties in the influence of external forcings. This study examines eight climate models to understand the differences in their predictive capacity for the North Atlantic, investigating the importance of external forcings and key model characteristics such as ocean stratification and the local atmospheric forcing.
Wah Kin Michael Lai, Jon Robson, Laura Wilcox, Nick Dunstone, and Rowan Sutton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2598, 2025
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In a climate model at two different resolutions, anthropogenic aerosols induce a fast cooling followed by a delayed warming in the subpolar North Atlantic. The delayed warming is stronger at higher resolution due to a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) response. This difference is due to the lower resolution model having more sea ice which insulates the ocean. This result show that the North Atlantic response to external forcing is sensitive to regional differences.
Mehdi Pasha Karami, Torben Koenigk, Shiyu Wang, René Navarro Labastida, Tim Kruschke, Aude Carreric, Pablo Ortega, Klaus Wyser, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Agatha M. de Boer, Marie Sicard, and Aitor Aldama Campino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653, 2025
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This study uses a high-resolution global climate model to simulate future climate, focusing on the Arctic and North Atlantic. The model captures observed sea ice loss and Atlantic circulation trends, projecting a nearly ice-free Arctic by 2040. It introduces a new method to quantify deep water formation, revealing how different ocean regions contribute to the weakening of overturning circulation in a warming climate.
Ingo Richter, Ping Chang, Ping-Gin Chiu, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Takeshi Doi, Dietmar Dommenget, Guillaume Gastineau, Zoe E. Gillett, Aixue Hu, Takahito Kataoka, Noel S. Keenlyside, Fred Kucharski, Yuko M. Okumura, Wonsun Park, Malte F. Stuecker, Andréa S. Taschetto, Chunzai Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Sang-Wook Yeh
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2587–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2587-2025, 2025
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Tropical ocean basins influence each other through multiple pathways and mechanisms, referred to here as tropical basin interaction (TBI). Many researchers have examined TBI using comprehensive climate models but have obtained conflicting results. This may be partly due to differences in experiment protocols and partly due to systematic model errors. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) aims to address this problem by designing a set of TBI experiments that will be performed by multiple models.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1307–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025, 2025
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HighResMIP2 is a model intercomparison project focusing on high-resolution global climate models, that is, those with grid spacings of 25 km or less in the atmosphere and ocean, using simulations of decades to a century in length. We are proposing an update of our simulation protocol to make the models more applicable to key questions for climate variability and hazard in present-day and future projections and to build links with other communities to provide more robust climate information.
Amanda Frigola, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Margarida Samsó, Saskia Loosvelt-Tomas, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Daria Kuznetsova, Xia Lin, and Pablo Ortega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-547, 2025
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We examine the performance of coupled climate models at unprecedented resolutions, capable of resolving ocean eddies in extensive areas of the North Atlantic. Eddy-resolving models present more realistic density profiles and stronger deep water convection in the subpolar North Atlantic. The strength and structure of the Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Current, and subpolar gyre are also improved at high resolution, and so is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
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We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-17, 2025
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Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variance. Three distinct phases of physical variability are identified: from 1850 to 1990, internal variability dominates; from 1990 to 2050, dynamical adjustment related to AMOC decline takes over; after 2050, differences between forcing scenarios become dominant. Beyond these physical factors, model variability remains the major source of uncertainty.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
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The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Alex T. Archibald, Bablu Sinha, Maria R. Russo, Emily Matthews, Freya A. Squires, N. Luke Abraham, Stephane J.-B. Bauguitte, Thomas J. Bannan, Thomas G. Bell, David Berry, Lucy J. Carpenter, Hugh Coe, Andrew Coward, Peter Edwards, Daniel Feltham, Dwayne Heard, Jim Hopkins, James Keeble, Elizabeth C. Kent, Brian A. King, Isobel R. Lawrence, James Lee, Claire R. Macintosh, Alex Megann, Bengamin I. Moat, Katie Read, Chris Reed, Malcolm J. Roberts, Reinhard Schiemann, David Schroeder, Timothy J. Smyth, Loren Temple, Navaneeth Thamban, Lisa Whalley, Simon Williams, Huihui Wu, and Mingxi Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 135–164, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-135-2025, 2025
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Here, we present an overview of the data generated as part of the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) programme that are available through dedicated repositories at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA; www.ceda.ac.uk) and the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC; bodc.ac.uk). The datasets described here cover the North Atlantic Ocean, the atmosphere above (it including its composition), and Arctic sea ice.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
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We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Raffaele Bernardello, Valentina Sicardi, Vladimir Lapin, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Etienne Tourigny, and Eric Ferrer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1255–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024, 2024
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The ocean mitigates climate change by absorbing about 25 % of the carbon that is emitted to the atmosphere. However, ocean CO2 uptake is not constant in time, and improving our understanding of the mechanisms regulating this variability can potentially lead to a better predictive capability of its future behavior. In this study, we compare two ocean modeling practices that are used to reconstruct the historical ocean carbon uptake, demonstrating the abilities of one over the other.
Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton
Geosci. Commun., 7, 161–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024, 2024
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Climate change can often seem rather remote, especially when the discussion is about global averages which appear to have little relevance to local experiences. But those global changes are already affecting people, even if they do not fully realise it, and effective communication of this issue is critical. We use long observations and well-understood physical principles to visually highlight how global emissions influence local flood risk in one river basin in the UK.
Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Didier Swingedouw, Leon Hermanson, Panos Athanasiadis, Rosie Eade, Marion Devilliers, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Nick Dunstone, An-Chi Ho, William Merryfield, Juliette Mignot, Dario Nicolì, Margarida Samsó, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Xian Wu, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 501–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-501-2024, 2024
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In recent decades three major volcanic eruptions have occurred: Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991. In this article we explore the climatic impacts of these volcanic eruptions with a purposefully designed set of simulations from six CMIP6 decadal prediction systems. We analyse the radiative and dynamical responses and show that including the volcanic forcing in these predictions is important to reproduce the observed surface temperature variations.
William J. Dow, Christine M. McKenna, Manoj M. Joshi, Adam T. Blaker, Richard Rigby, and Amanda C. Maycock
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-357-2024, 2024
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Changes to sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific are driven partly by patterns of local atmospheric circulation, such as the Aleutian Low. We show that an intensification of the Aleutian Low could contribute to small changes in temperatures across the equatorial Pacific via the initiation of two mechanisms. The effect, although significant, is unlikely to explain fully the recently observed multi-year shift of a pattern of climate variability across the wider Pacific.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
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We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Anne Marie Treguier, Clement de Boyer Montégut, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Andy McC. Hogg, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrew E. Kiss, Julien Le Sommer, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Camille Lique, Hailong Liu, Guillaume Serazin, Dmitry Sidorenko, Qiang Wang, Xiaobio Xu, and Steve Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3849–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3849-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3849-2023, 2023
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The ocean mixed layer is the interface between the ocean interior and the atmosphere and plays a key role in climate variability. We evaluate the performance of the new generation of ocean models for climate studies, designed to resolve
ocean eddies, which are the largest source of ocean variability and modulate the mixed-layer properties. We find that the mixed-layer depth is better represented in eddy-rich models but, unfortunately, not uniformly across the globe and not in all models.
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, 2022
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Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022
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The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
Amélie Simon, Guillaume Gastineau, Claude Frankignoul, Vladimir Lapin, and Pablo Ortega
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 845–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-845-2022, 2022
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The influence of the Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation in midlatitudes depends on persistent sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. In winter, Arctic sea-ice loss and a warm North Pacific Ocean both induce depressions over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, an anticyclone over Greenland, and a stratospheric anticyclone over the Arctic. However, the effects are not additive as the interaction between both signals is slightly destructive.
Rachael N. C. Sanders, Daniel C. Jones, Simon A. Josey, Bablu Sinha, and Gael Forget
Ocean Sci., 18, 953–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-953-2022, 2022
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In 2015, record low temperatures were observed in the North Atlantic. Using an ocean model, we show that surface heat loss in December 2013 caused 75 % of the initial cooling before this "cold blob" was trapped below the surface. The following summer, the cold blob re-emerged due to a strong temperature difference between the surface ocean and below, driving vertical diffusion of heat. Lower than average surface warming then led to the coldest temperature anomalies in August 2015.
Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, and Bablu Sinha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4867–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022, 2022
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This study examines interactions between variations in the strength of polar stratospheric winds and circulation in the North Atlantic in a climate model simulation. It finds that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds with oscillations to sets of consecutive Northern Hemisphere winters, which show all strong or all weak polar vortex conditions. The study also shows that a set of strong vortex winters in the 1990s contributed to the recent slowdown in the observed AMOC.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
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A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 1449–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, 2021
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The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are major currents of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. They transport warm water northward and are key components of the Earth climate system. For this study, we looked at how they affect the sea level of the coasts of Japan, the USA and Canada. We found that the inshore sea level
co-varies with the north-to-south shifts of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. In the paper, we discuss the physical mechanisms that could explain the agreement.
Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Colin G. Jones, Lee de Mora, Till Kuhlbrodt, Ekatarina E. Popova, A. J. George Nurser, Joel Hirschi, Adam T. Blaker, Andrew C. Coward, Edward W. Blockley, and Alistair A. Sellar
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3437–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, 2021
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The ocean plays a key role in modulating the Earth’s climate. Understanding this role is critical when using models to project future climate change. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate their realism against the ocean's observed state. Here we validate UKESM1, a new Earth system model, focusing on the realism of its ocean physics and circulation, as well as its biological cycles and productivity. While we identify biases, generally the model performs well over a wide range of properties.
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
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This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
Adam T. Blaker, Manoj Joshi, Bablu Sinha, David P. Stevens, Robin S. Smith, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 275–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-275-2021, 2021
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FORTE 2.0 is a flexible coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model that can be run on modest hardware. We present two 2000-year simulations which show that FORTE 2.0 is capable of producing a stable climate. Earlier versions of FORTE were used for a wide range of studies, ranging from aquaplanet configurations to investigating the cold European winters of 2009–2010. This paper introduces the updated model for which the code and configuration are now publicly available.
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Short summary
Deep Labrador Sea densities are receiving increasing attention because of their link to many of the processes that govern decadal climate oscillations in the North Atlantic and their potential use as a precursor of those changes. This article explores those links and how they are represented in global climate models, documenting the main differences across models. Models are finally compared with observational products to identify the ones that reproduce the links more realistically.
Deep Labrador Sea densities are receiving increasing attention because of their link to many of...
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