Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 01 Mar 2021
| 01 Mar 2021
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Kevin Debeire
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Datenwissenschaften, Jena, Germany
Veronika Eyring
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Erich Fischer
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
John Fyfe
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Pierre Friedlingstein
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
LMD/IPSL, ENS, PSL Université, Ècole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Paris, France
Reto Knutti
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
Jason Lowe
Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter, UK
Priestley International Center for Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Brian O'Neill
Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA
currently at: Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Benjamin Sanderson
CNRS/Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Toulouse, France
Detlef van Vuuren
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Keywan Riahi
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Malte Meinshausen
Climate & Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Zebedee Nicholls
Climate & Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Katarzyna B. Tokarska
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
George Hurtt
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
Jean-Francois Lamarque
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Gerald Meehl
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Richard Moss
Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Susanne E. Bauer
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Olivier Boucher
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France
Victor Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
also at: Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Young-Hwa Byun
National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration, Seogwipo, South Korea
Martin Dix
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
Silvio Gualdi
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Jasmin G. John
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Slava Kharin
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
YoungHo Kim
Ocean Circulation & Climate Change Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Busan, South Korea
also at: Department of Oceanography, Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea
Tsuyoshi Koshiro
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Libin Ma
Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu, China
Dirk Olivié
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Swapna Panickal
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Fangli Qiao
First Institute of Oceanography (FIO), Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Qingdao, China
Xinyao Rong
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
Nan Rosenbloom
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Martin Schupfner
Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg, Germany
Roland Séférian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Alistair Sellar
Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter, UK
Tido Semmler
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Xiaoying Shi
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
Zhenya Song
First Institute of Oceanography (FIO), Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Qingdao, China
Christian Steger
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
Ronald Stouffer
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Neil Swart
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Kaoru Tachiiri
Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA
Hiroaki Tatebe
Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Aurore Voldoire
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Evgeny Volodin
Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Moscow, Russian Federation
Klaus Wyser
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Xiaoge Xin
Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Shuting Yang
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Yongqiang Yu
LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
Data sets
ESMValCore (Version v2.2.0) B. Andela, B. Brötz, L. de Mora, N. Drost, V. Eyring, N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Zimmermann, L. Bock, F. Diblen, L. Dreyer, P. Earnshaw, B. Hassler, B. Little, and S. Loosveldt-Tomas https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4525749
ESMValTool (Version v2.1.1) B. Andela, B. Brötz, L. de Mora, N. Drost, V. Eyring, N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, B. Mueller, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Zimmermann, K. Adeniyi, P. Amarjiit, E. Arnone, O. Bellprat, P. Berg, L. Bock, L.-P. Caron, N. Carvalhais, I. Cionni, N. Cortesi, S. Corti, B. Crezee, E. L. Davin, P. Davini, C. Deser, F. Diblen, D. Docquier, L. Dreyer, C. Ehbrecht, P. Earnshaw, B. Gier, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P. Goodman, S. Hagemann, J. von Hardenberg, B. Hassler, A. Hunter, C. Kadow, S. Kindermann, S. Koirala, L. Lledó, Q. Lejeune, V. Lembo, B. Little, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, R. Lorenz, T. Lovato, V. Lucarini, F. Massonnet, C. W. Mohr, N. Pérez-Zanón, A. Phillips, J. Russell, M. Sandstad, A. Sellar, D. Senftleben, F. Serva, J. Sillmann, T. Stacke, R. Swaminathan, V. Torralba, and K. Weigel K. https://zenodo.org/record/4300499
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according...
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