Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021

Research article 01 Mar 2021

Research article | 01 Mar 2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Claudia Tebaldi et al.

Data sets

ESMValCore (Version v2.2.0) B. Andela, B. Brötz, L. de Mora, N. Drost, V. Eyring, N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Zimmermann, L. Bock, F. Diblen, L. Dreyer, P. Earnshaw, B. Hassler, B. Little, and S. Loosveldt-Tomas https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4525749

ESMValTool (Version v2.1.1) B. Andela, B. Brötz, L. de Mora, N. Drost, V. Eyring, N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, B. Mueller, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Zimmermann, K. Adeniyi, P. Amarjiit, E. Arnone, O. Bellprat, P. Berg, L. Bock, L.-P. Caron, N. Carvalhais, I. Cionni, N. Cortesi, S. Corti, B. Crezee, E. L. Davin, P. Davini, C. Deser, F. Diblen, D. Docquier, L. Dreyer, C. Ehbrecht, P. Earnshaw, B. Gier, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P. Goodman, S. Hagemann, J. von Hardenberg, B. Hassler, A. Hunter, C. Kadow, S. Kindermann, S. Koirala, L. Lledó, Q. Lejeune, V. Lembo, B. Little, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, R. Lorenz, T. Lovato, V. Lucarini, F. Massonnet, C. W. Mohr, N. Pérez-Zanón, A. Phillips, J. Russell, M. Sandstad, A. Sellar, D. Senftleben, F. Serva, J. Sillmann, T. Stacke, R. Swaminathan, V. Torralba, and K. Weigel K. https://zenodo.org/record/4300499

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Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
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