Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 01 Mar 2021
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Kevin Debeire
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Datenwissenschaften, Jena, Germany
Veronika Eyring
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Erich Fischer
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
John Fyfe
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Pierre Friedlingstein
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
LMD/IPSL, ENS, PSL Université, Ècole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Paris, France
Reto Knutti
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
Jason Lowe
Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter, UK
Priestley International Center for Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Brian O'Neill
Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA
currently at: Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Benjamin Sanderson
CNRS/Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Toulouse, France
Detlef Vuuren
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Keywan Riahi
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Malte Meinshausen
Climate & Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Zebedee Nicholls
Climate & Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Katarzyna B. Tokarska
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
George Hurtt
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
Jean-Francois Lamarque
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Gerald Meehl
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Richard Moss
Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Susanne E. Bauer
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Olivier Boucher
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France
Victor Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
also at: Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Young-Hwa Byun
National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration, Seogwipo, South Korea
Martin Dix
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
Silvio Gualdi
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Jasmin G. John
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Slava Kharin
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
YoungHo Kim
Ocean Circulation & Climate Change Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Busan, South Korea
also at: Department of Oceanography, Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea
Tsuyoshi Koshiro
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Libin Ma
Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Jiangsu, China
Dirk Olivié
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Swapna Panickal
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Fangli Qiao
First Institute of Oceanography (FIO), Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Qingdao, China
Xinyao Rong
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
Nan Rosenbloom
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Martin Schupfner
Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg, Germany
Roland Séférian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Alistair Sellar
Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter, UK
Tido Semmler
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Xiaoying Shi
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
Zhenya Song
First Institute of Oceanography (FIO), Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Qingdao, China
Christian Steger
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
Ronald Stouffer
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Neil Swart
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Kaoru Tachiiri
Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA
Hiroaki Tatebe
Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
Aurore Voldoire
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Evgeny Volodin
Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Moscow, Russian Federation
Klaus Wyser
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Xiaoge Xin
Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Shuting Yang
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Yongqiang Yu
LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
Viewed
Total article views: 17,766 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 16 Sep 2020)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12,794 | 4,850 | 122 | 17,766 | 165 | 194 |
- HTML: 12,794
- PDF: 4,850
- XML: 122
- Total: 17,766
- BibTeX: 165
- EndNote: 194
Total article views: 14,475 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 01 Mar 2021)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,890 | 3,474 | 111 | 14,475 | 141 | 161 |
- HTML: 10,890
- PDF: 3,474
- XML: 111
- Total: 14,475
- BibTeX: 141
- EndNote: 161
Total article views: 3,291 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 16 Sep 2020)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,904 | 1,376 | 11 | 3,291 | 24 | 33 |
- HTML: 1,904
- PDF: 1,376
- XML: 11
- Total: 3,291
- BibTeX: 24
- EndNote: 33
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 17,766 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 15,454 with geography defined
and 2,312 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 14,475 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 12,914 with geography defined
and 1,561 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,291 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 2,540 with geography defined
and 751 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluation and projection of precipitation in Pakistan using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations A. Abbas et al. 10.1002/joc.7602
- Impact of climate change on cherry blossom viewing tourism: analysis and simulation based on Weibo proxy data S. Wang et al. 10.1080/13683500.2022.2049711
- CHP performance under the warming climate: a case study for Russia V. Klimenko et al. 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123099
- A Moderate Mitigation Can Significantly Delay the Emergence of Compound Hot Extremes F. Ma et al. 10.1029/2021JD035427
- Probabilistic Assessment of Extreme Heat Stress on Indian Wheat Yields Under Climate Change M. Zachariah et al. 10.1029/2021GL094702
- Using Large Ensembles to Identify Regions of Systematic Biases in Moderate‐to‐Heavy Daily Precipitation N. Goldenson et al. 10.1029/2020GL092026
- Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions H. Song et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-25019-2
- Integrated assessment of localized SSP–RCP narratives for climate change adaptation in coupled human-water systems M. Alizadeh et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153660
- Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula H. Sung et al. 10.3390/jmse9101094
- Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models A. Dosio et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05859-w
- Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks C. Smith & P. Forster 10.1029/2021GL094948
- Increasing Heat‐Stress Inequality in a Warming Climate M. Alizadeh et al. 10.1029/2021EF002488
- Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management D. Ficklin et al. 10.1029/2021EF002487
- Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts J. Silva et al. 10.1111/fwb.13885
- Mean and extreme precipitation changes over China under SSP scenarios: results from high-resolution dynamical downscaling for CORDEX East Asia L. Zou & T. Zhou 10.1007/s00382-021-05947-x
- Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100 R. Pielke Jr et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf
- Heat wave magnitude over India under changing climate: Projections from CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments J. Das & N. Umamahesh 10.1002/joc.7246
- Historical global land surface air apparent temperature and its future changes based on CMIP6 projections J. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151656
- Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia R. Fewster et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7
- The Physical Climate at Global Warming Thresholds as Seen in the U.K. Earth System Model 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0234.1
- Assessing the response of soil carbon in Australia to changing inputs and climate using a consistent modelling framework J. Lee et al. 10.5194/bg-18-5185-2021
- Consistent cooling benefits of silvopasture in the tropics L. Zeppetello et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-28388-4
- Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models A. Katzenberger et al. 10.5194/esd-12-367-2021
- Optimizing sowing window, cultivar choice, and plant density to boost maize yield under RCP8.5 climate scenario of CMIP5 M. Ali et al. 10.1007/s00484-022-02253-x
- MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China Y. Zhou et al. 10.3390/f12060752
- Assessing the use of climate change information in State Wildlife Action Plans H. Yocum et al. 10.1111/csp2.608
- CMIP6 Simulations With the CMCC Earth System Model (CMCC‐ESM2) T. Lovato et al. 10.1029/2021MS002814
- Identification of linear response functions from arbitrary perturbation experiments in the presence of noise – Part 2: Application to the land carbon cycle in the MPI Earth System Model G. Torres Mendonça et al. 10.5194/npg-28-533-2021
- Invasion and Extirpation Potential of Native and Invasive Spartina Species Under Climate Change F. Borges et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.696333
- Modelling of the evolution of the multi-behavioural dynamics from the regulatory climate theory Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya 10.1088/1742-6596/2001/1/012018
- Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100 K. Gurney et al. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102478
- Projections of cold air outbreaks in CMIP6 earth system models E. Smith & S. Sheridan 10.1007/s10584-021-03259-x
- Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems D. Tittensor et al. 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
- Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to +2 °C (SWAIS 2C) M. Patterson et al. 10.5194/sd-30-101-2022
- A temperature binning approach for multi-sector climate impact analysis M. Sarofim et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03048-6
34 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluation and projection of precipitation in Pakistan using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations A. Abbas et al. 10.1002/joc.7602
- Impact of climate change on cherry blossom viewing tourism: analysis and simulation based on Weibo proxy data S. Wang et al. 10.1080/13683500.2022.2049711
- CHP performance under the warming climate: a case study for Russia V. Klimenko et al. 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123099
- A Moderate Mitigation Can Significantly Delay the Emergence of Compound Hot Extremes F. Ma et al. 10.1029/2021JD035427
- Probabilistic Assessment of Extreme Heat Stress on Indian Wheat Yields Under Climate Change M. Zachariah et al. 10.1029/2021GL094702
- Using Large Ensembles to Identify Regions of Systematic Biases in Moderate‐to‐Heavy Daily Precipitation N. Goldenson et al. 10.1029/2020GL092026
- Thresholds of temperature change for mass extinctions H. Song et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-25019-2
- Integrated assessment of localized SSP–RCP narratives for climate change adaptation in coupled human-water systems M. Alizadeh et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153660
- Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula H. Sung et al. 10.3390/jmse9101094
- Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models A. Dosio et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05859-w
- Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks C. Smith & P. Forster 10.1029/2021GL094948
- Increasing Heat‐Stress Inequality in a Warming Climate M. Alizadeh et al. 10.1029/2021EF002488
- Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management D. Ficklin et al. 10.1029/2021EF002487
- Predicting climatic threats to an endangered freshwater mussel in Europe: The need to account for fish hosts J. Silva et al. 10.1111/fwb.13885
- Mean and extreme precipitation changes over China under SSP scenarios: results from high-resolution dynamical downscaling for CORDEX East Asia L. Zou & T. Zhou 10.1007/s00382-021-05947-x
- Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100 R. Pielke Jr et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf
- Heat wave magnitude over India under changing climate: Projections from CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments J. Das & N. Umamahesh 10.1002/joc.7246
- Historical global land surface air apparent temperature and its future changes based on CMIP6 projections J. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151656
- Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia R. Fewster et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7
- The Physical Climate at Global Warming Thresholds as Seen in the U.K. Earth System Model 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0234.1
- Assessing the response of soil carbon in Australia to changing inputs and climate using a consistent modelling framework J. Lee et al. 10.5194/bg-18-5185-2021
- Consistent cooling benefits of silvopasture in the tropics L. Zeppetello et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-28388-4
- Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models A. Katzenberger et al. 10.5194/esd-12-367-2021
- Optimizing sowing window, cultivar choice, and plant density to boost maize yield under RCP8.5 climate scenario of CMIP5 M. Ali et al. 10.1007/s00484-022-02253-x
- MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China Y. Zhou et al. 10.3390/f12060752
- Assessing the use of climate change information in State Wildlife Action Plans H. Yocum et al. 10.1111/csp2.608
- CMIP6 Simulations With the CMCC Earth System Model (CMCC‐ESM2) T. Lovato et al. 10.1029/2021MS002814
- Identification of linear response functions from arbitrary perturbation experiments in the presence of noise – Part 2: Application to the land carbon cycle in the MPI Earth System Model G. Torres Mendonça et al. 10.5194/npg-28-533-2021
- Invasion and Extirpation Potential of Native and Invasive Spartina Species Under Climate Change F. Borges et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.696333
- Modelling of the evolution of the multi-behavioural dynamics from the regulatory climate theory Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya 10.1088/1742-6596/2001/1/012018
- Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100 K. Gurney et al. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102478
- Projections of cold air outbreaks in CMIP6 earth system models E. Smith & S. Sheridan 10.1007/s10584-021-03259-x
- Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems D. Tittensor et al. 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
- Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to +2 °C (SWAIS 2C) M. Patterson et al. 10.5194/sd-30-101-2022
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 20 Mar 2023
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint