Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
11 Feb 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 11 Feb 2021
| 11 Feb 2021
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Simon Wild
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Pablo Ortega
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Juan Acosta-Navarro
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Thomas Arsouze
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Louis-Philippe Caron
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Miguel Castrillo
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Rubén Cruz-García
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Ivana Cvijanovic
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Passeig Lluis Companys 23, 08010 Barcelona, Spain
Markus Donat
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Emanuel Dutra
Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Pablo Echevarría
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
An-Chi Ho
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Núria Pérez-Zanon
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Arthur Ramos
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Yohan Ruprich-Robert
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Valentina Sicardi
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Etienne Tourigny
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Javier Vegas-Regidor
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
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Cited
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- On the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Simulations in CMIP6 Models: A New Test-Bed from Climate Network Analysis Y. Ma et al. 10.1007/s13143-022-00286-1
- The effect of initialisation on 20 year multi-decadal climate predictions A. Düsterhus & S. Brune 10.1007/s00382-023-06941-1
- Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes P. De Luca et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf389
- Representation and Annual to Decadal Predictability of Euro‐Atlantic Weather Regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC‐Earth Coupled Climate Model C. Delgado‐Torres et al. 10.1029/2022JD036673
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- SIPN South: six years of coordinated seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions F. Massonnet et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1148899
- Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions D. Befort et al. 10.1029/2022GL098568
- The Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) decadal prediction system D. Nicolì et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-179-2023
- Decadal prediction of Northeast Asian winter precipitation with CMIP6 models X. Xin et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-07063-4
- Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems R. McAdam et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-06101-3
- A Novel Initialization Technique for Decadal Climate Predictions D. Volpi et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.681127
- Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector E. Tsartsali et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100422
- Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre I. Polkova et al. 10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770
- On the Development of GFDL's Decadal Prediction System: Initialization Approaches and Retrospective Forecast Assessment X. Yang et al. 10.1029/2021MS002529
- Prediction of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on Air Quality during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics T. Wang et al. 10.3390/su14084574
- Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events Y. Liu et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9
- CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 DCPP Experiment S. Hu et al. 10.1007/s00376-023-2122-x
- A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model‐Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions R. Saurral et al. 10.1029/2021MS002570
- Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions J. Acosta Navarro et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b
- Near-term temperature extremes in Iran using the decadal climate prediction project (DCPP) N. Asadi-RahimBeygi et al. 10.1007/s00477-023-02579-x
- Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe G. Sgubin et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05863-0
- Understanding Changes in the Hydrometeorological Conditions towards Climate-Resilient Agricultural Interventions in Ethiopia S. Sahoo & A. Govind 10.3390/agronomy13020387
- Decadal prediction skill for Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP6 models Y. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100377
- Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: an analysis with the EC-Earth3 model T. Carmo-Costa et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway H. Langehaug et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1
- The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 R. Döscher et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022
- Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections G. Hegerl et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
- Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system R. Mahmood et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
- On the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Simulations in CMIP6 Models: A New Test-Bed from Climate Network Analysis Y. Ma et al. 10.1007/s13143-022-00286-1
- The effect of initialisation on 20 year multi-decadal climate predictions A. Düsterhus & S. Brune 10.1007/s00382-023-06941-1
- Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes P. De Luca et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf389
- Representation and Annual to Decadal Predictability of Euro‐Atlantic Weather Regimes in the CMIP6 Version of the EC‐Earth Coupled Climate Model C. Delgado‐Torres et al. 10.1029/2022JD036673
- AMOC Recent and Future Trends: A Crucial Role for Oceanic Resolution and Greenland Melting? D. Swingedouw et al. 10.3389/fclim.2022.838310
- SIPN South: six years of coordinated seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions F. Massonnet et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1148899
- Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions D. Befort et al. 10.1029/2022GL098568
- The Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) decadal prediction system D. Nicolì et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-179-2023
- Decadal prediction of Northeast Asian winter precipitation with CMIP6 models X. Xin et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-07063-4
- Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems R. McAdam et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-06101-3
- A Novel Initialization Technique for Decadal Climate Predictions D. Volpi et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.681127
- Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector E. Tsartsali et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100422
- Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre I. Polkova et al. 10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770
- On the Development of GFDL's Decadal Prediction System: Initialization Approaches and Retrospective Forecast Assessment X. Yang et al. 10.1029/2021MS002529
- Prediction of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on Air Quality during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics T. Wang et al. 10.3390/su14084574
- Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events Y. Liu et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9
- CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 DCPP Experiment S. Hu et al. 10.1007/s00376-023-2122-x
- A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model‐Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions R. Saurral et al. 10.1029/2021MS002570
- Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions J. Acosta Navarro et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b
- Near-term temperature extremes in Iran using the decadal climate prediction project (DCPP) N. Asadi-RahimBeygi et al. 10.1007/s00477-023-02579-x
- Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe G. Sgubin et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05863-0
- Understanding Changes in the Hydrometeorological Conditions towards Climate-Resilient Agricultural Interventions in Ethiopia S. Sahoo & A. Govind 10.3390/agronomy13020387
- Decadal prediction skill for Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP6 models Y. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100377
Latest update: 25 Apr 2024
Short summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3...
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