Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
11 Feb 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 11 Feb 2021
| 11 Feb 2021
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Simon Wild
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Pablo Ortega
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Juan Acosta-Navarro
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Thomas Arsouze
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Louis-Philippe Caron
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Miguel Castrillo
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Rubén Cruz-García
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Ivana Cvijanovic
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Passeig Lluis Companys 23, 08010 Barcelona, Spain
Markus Donat
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Emanuel Dutra
Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Pablo Echevarría
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
An-Chi Ho
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Núria Pérez-Zanon
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Arthur Ramos
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Yohan Ruprich-Robert
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Valentina Sicardi
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Etienne Tourigny
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
Javier Vegas-Regidor
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Jordi Girona 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
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Latest update: 22 Mar 2026
Short summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3...
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