Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021

Research article 11 Feb 2021

Research article | 11 Feb 2021

Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth

Roberto Bilbao et al.

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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (04 Dec 2020) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Anna Mirena Feist-Polner on behalf of the Authors (18 Dec 2020)  Author's response
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (18 Dec 2020) by Gabriele Messori
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Short summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
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