Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021

Research article 11 Feb 2021

Research article | 11 Feb 2021

Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth

Roberto Bilbao et al.

Data sets

ESGF Node at DKRZ ESGF https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppA-hindcast EC-Earth-Consortium https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4553

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical EC-Earth Consortium https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4700

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245 EC-Earth Consortium https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4880

Model code and software

Earthdiagnostics: diagnostic tools for NEMO and EC-EARTH models postprocessing, Version 3.5.3 BSC-CNS and J. Vegas-Regidor https://earth.bsc.es/gitlab/es/earthdiagnostics

startR: Automatically Retrieve Multidimensional Distributed Data Sets BSC-CNS and N. Manubens https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/startR/index.html

s2dv: A Set of Common Tools for Seasonal to Decadal Verification BSC-CNS, A.-C. Ho, and N. Perez-Zanon https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/s2dv/index.html

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Short summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
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