Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth

Bilbao, Roberto; Wild, Simon; Ortega, Pablo; Acosta-Navarro, Juan; Arsouze, Thomas; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Castrillo, Miguel; Cruz-García, Rubén; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier; Donat, Markus; Dutra, Emanuel; Echevarría, Pablo; Ho, An-Chi; Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Pérez-Zanon, Núria; Ramos, Arthur; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Sicardi, Valentina; Tourigny, Etienne; Vegas-Regidor, Javier

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

11 Feb 2021

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 11 Feb 2021

Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth

Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021-supplement

Data sets

ESGF Node at DKRZ ESGF https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppA-hindcast EC-Earth-Consortium https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4553

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical EC-Earth Consortium https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4700

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245 EC-Earth Consortium https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4880

Model code and software

Earthdiagnostics: diagnostic tools for NEMO and EC-EARTH models postprocessing, Version 3.5.3 BSC-CNS and J. Vegas-Regidor https://earth.bsc.es/gitlab/es/earthdiagnostics

startR: Automatically Retrieve Multidimensional Distributed Data Sets BSC-CNS and N. Manubens https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/startR/index.html

s2dv: A Set of Common Tools for Seasonal to Decadal Verification BSC-CNS, A.-C. Ho, and N. Perez-Zanon https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/s2dv/index.html

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Short summary

This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.