Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Research article
 | Highlight paper
11 Feb 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 11 Feb 2021

Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth

Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor

Data sets


EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 DCPP dcppA-hindcast EC-Earth-Consortium

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical EC-Earth Consortium

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245 EC-Earth Consortium

Model code and software

Earthdiagnostics: diagnostic tools for NEMO and EC-EARTH models postprocessing, Version 3.5.3 BSC-CNS and J. Vegas-Regidor

startR: Automatically Retrieve Multidimensional Distributed Data Sets BSC-CNS and N. Manubens

s2dv: A Set of Common Tools for Seasonal to Decadal Verification BSC-CNS, A.-C. Ho, and N. Perez-Zanon

Short summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
Final-revised paper