Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climate change as an incentive for future human migration
Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, 260
Panama Street, Stanford,
CA 94305, USA
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD
20740, USA
Ken Caldeira
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, 260
Panama Street, Stanford,
CA 94305, USA
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A disaster risk and resilience analysis framework provides insights for modelling natural hazard-induced human mobility G. Brutti et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03709-3
- Impact of Climate Change on Livelihoods Due to Forced Migration: Alterations in Climatic Variables and Related Factors in Coastal Bangladesh P. Barua & N. Nargis https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25A-00009.1
- Exploring the Climate Temperature Effects on Settlement Intentions of Older Migrants: Evidence from China H. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19084896
- Applying the analytical hierarchy process to assess environmental migration drivers in coastal Bangladesh K. Parvez & M. Ali https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-03201-0
- From Pahad to Maidan: Climate change and socio-economic dynamics of out-migration in the Uttarakhand Himalayas A. Shah & K. Malakar https://doi.org/10.3389/fhumd.2026.1786808
- Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100 C. Lyon et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15871
- Decision‐making factor interactions influencing climate migration: A systems‐based systematic review E. Nabong et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.828
- Promoting mental health and preventing mental health problems in child and adolescent refugees and asylum seekers: A systematic review on psychosocial interventions B. Della Rocca et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/00207640231214964
- Flucht und Migration im Kontext der Klimakatastrophe C. Nikendei et al. https://doi.org/10.21706/aep-19-4-222
- Climate Change, Drought, and Potential Environmental Migration Flows Under Different Policy Scenarios O. Smirnov et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183221079850
- Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis G. Daoust & J. Selby https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.886
- Acculturation stress and mental health outcomes in a sample of migrant inpatients: Findings from a naturalistic study B. Della Rocca et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/00207640241291506
- Climate Extremes (Flood and Drought) as Drivers of Irregular Youth Migration: Evidence from The Gambia D. Baldeh et al. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2026.147006
- Environmental health, economy, and amenities interactively drive migration patterns among China's older people H. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1354071
- National Eye Institute’s (NEI) coordination efforts and current opportunities for sustainability, adaptation, and climate resilience in global eye health – ARVO 2023 session commentary E. McCance et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41433-023-02854-9
- Use of coercive measures in refugees and asylum seekers: a systematic review B. Della Rocca et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/09540261.2024.2335181
- The emergence of prolonged deadly humid heatwaves X. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7750
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A disaster risk and resilience analysis framework provides insights for modelling natural hazard-induced human mobility G. Brutti et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03709-3
- Impact of Climate Change on Livelihoods Due to Forced Migration: Alterations in Climatic Variables and Related Factors in Coastal Bangladesh P. Barua & N. Nargis https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-25A-00009.1
- Exploring the Climate Temperature Effects on Settlement Intentions of Older Migrants: Evidence from China H. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19084896
- Applying the analytical hierarchy process to assess environmental migration drivers in coastal Bangladesh K. Parvez & M. Ali https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-03201-0
- From Pahad to Maidan: Climate change and socio-economic dynamics of out-migration in the Uttarakhand Himalayas A. Shah & K. Malakar https://doi.org/10.3389/fhumd.2026.1786808
- Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100 C. Lyon et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15871
- Decision‐making factor interactions influencing climate migration: A systems‐based systematic review E. Nabong et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.828
- Promoting mental health and preventing mental health problems in child and adolescent refugees and asylum seekers: A systematic review on psychosocial interventions B. Della Rocca et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/00207640231214964
- Flucht und Migration im Kontext der Klimakatastrophe C. Nikendei et al. https://doi.org/10.21706/aep-19-4-222
- Climate Change, Drought, and Potential Environmental Migration Flows Under Different Policy Scenarios O. Smirnov et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183221079850
- Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis G. Daoust & J. Selby https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.886
- Acculturation stress and mental health outcomes in a sample of migrant inpatients: Findings from a naturalistic study B. Della Rocca et al. https://doi.org/10.1177/00207640241291506
- Climate Extremes (Flood and Drought) as Drivers of Irregular Youth Migration: Evidence from The Gambia D. Baldeh et al. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2026.147006
- Environmental health, economy, and amenities interactively drive migration patterns among China's older people H. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1354071
- National Eye Institute’s (NEI) coordination efforts and current opportunities for sustainability, adaptation, and climate resilience in global eye health – ARVO 2023 session commentary E. McCance et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41433-023-02854-9
- Use of coercive measures in refugees and asylum seekers: a systematic review B. Della Rocca et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/09540261.2024.2335181
- The emergence of prolonged deadly humid heatwaves X. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7750
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 20 Aug 2026
Short summary
We examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today’s relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such analyses are unlikely to make accurate predictions but can still be useful for informing discussions about the broad range of incentives that might influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be the areas most adversely affected by climate change.
We examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today’s...
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