Climate change as an incentive for future human migration

Chen, Min; Caldeira, Ken

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

22 Oct 2020

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 22 Oct 2020

Climate change as an incentive for future human migration

Min Chen and Ken Caldeira

Download

Final revised paper (published on 22 Oct 2020)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 07 Jan 2020)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

SC1: '2 comments', Jonathan Buzan, 11 Feb 2020
- AC1: 'reply to 2 comments', K. Caldeira, 16 Jul 2020
SC2: 'Data presentation comments', James Smoot, 11 Feb 2020
- AC2: 'Formatting comments', K. Caldeira, 16 Jul 2020
RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 May 2020
- AC3: 'Response to Referee #1', K. Caldeira, 16 Jul 2020
RC2: 'NCLIM-19112326', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 May 2020
- AC4: 'Response to Referee #2', K. Caldeira, 16 Jul 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (02 Aug 2020) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by K. Caldeira on behalf of the Authors (18 Aug 2020) Author's response

ED: Publish as is (20 Aug 2020) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by K. Caldeira on behalf of the Authors (31 Aug 2020)

Download

Article (3930 KB)
Full-text XML

Short summary

We examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today’s relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such analyses are unlikely to make accurate predictions but can still be useful for informing discussions about the broad range of incentives that might influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be the areas most adversely affected by climate change.