Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Research article
 | 
03 Aug 2020
Research article |  | 03 Aug 2020

What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?

James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens

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Short summary
In this paper we explore the potential of variability for constraining the equilibrium response of the climate system to external forcing. We show that the constraint is inherently skewed, with a long tail to high sensitivity, and that while the variability may contain some useful information, it is unlikely to generate a tight constraint.
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