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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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In this paper we explore the potential of variability for constraining the equilibrium response of the climate system to external forcing. We show that the constraint is inherently skewed, with a long tail to high sensitivity, and that while the variability may contain some useful information, it is unlikely to generate a tight constraint.
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ESD | Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
ESD | Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
ESD | Articles | Volume 11, issue 3

Research article 03 Aug 2020

Research article | 03 Aug 2020

What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?

James D. Annan et al.

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Short summary
In this paper we explore the potential of variability for constraining the equilibrium response of the climate system to external forcing. We show that the constraint is inherently skewed, with a long tail to high sensitivity, and that while the variability may contain some useful information, it is unlikely to generate a tight constraint.
Read more
Citation
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint
Earth System Dynamics

An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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