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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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ESD | Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 29 May 2020

Research article | 29 May 2020

Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods

Martin Wegmann et al.

Data sets

Atmospheric Reanalysis of the 20th Century European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/era20c-moda/levtype=sfc/type=an/

Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 2c National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV2c.html

Tibaldi Molteni 2-dimensional blocks M. Rohrer https://github.com/marco-rohrer/TM2D

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/AMO/

Niño 3.4 SST Index National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Nino34/

North Atlantic Oscillation Index Climate Research Unit https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/nao/

Gridded Monthly Sea Ice Extent and Concentration National Snow & Ice Data Center https://nsidc.org/data/g10010

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Short summary
Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which...
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Final-revised paper
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