Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Research article
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08 Apr 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 08 Apr 2020

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, and Martin Rypdal

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Short summary
This paper presents efficient Bayesian methods for linear response models of global mean surface temperature that take into account long-range dependence. We apply the methods to the instrumental temperature record and historical model runs in the CMIP5 ensemble to provide estimates of the transient climate response and temperature projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways.
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