Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik; Sørbye, Sigrunn Holbek; Fredriksen, Hege-Beate; Rue, Håvard; Rypdal, Martin

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 2

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

08 Apr 2020

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 08 Apr 2020

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, and Martin Rypdal

Data sets

INLA.climate E. Myrvoll-Nilsen https://github.com/eirikmn/INLA.climate

Short summary

This paper presents efficient Bayesian methods for linear response models of global mean surface temperature that take into account long-range dependence. We apply the methods to the instrumental temperature record and historical model runs in the CMIP5 ensemble to provide estimates of the transient climate response and temperature projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways.