Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Mar 2019
Research article |
| 20 Mar 2019
| 20 Mar 2019
Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: predictive skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependency
Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Hendrik Feldmann
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Sebastian Mieruch
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Sciences, Bremerhaven, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Marianne Uhlig
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
Bodo Ahrens
Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt a. M., Frankfurt a. M., Germany
Barbara Früh
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany
Kameswarrao Modali
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Natalie Laube
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Julia Moemken
Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Wolfgang Müller
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Gerd Schädler
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Christoph Kottmeier
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
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Cited
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity D. Krieger et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022
- Simulation of extreme rainfall and streamflow events in small Mediterranean watersheds with a one-way-coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system C. Camera et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2791-2020
- Drift Correction and Sub‐Ensemble Predictive Skill Evaluation of the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble With Application to Regional Studies J. Rosa‐Cánovas et al. 10.1029/2023JD039709
- Combined use of HYSPLIT model and MODIS aerosols optical depth to study the spatiotemporal circulation patterns of Saharan dust events over Central Europe N. Gammoudi et al. 10.1016/j.aeolia.2024.100899
- High-Resolution Decadal Drought Predictions for German Water Boards: A Case Study for the Wupper Catchment A. Paxian et al. 10.3389/fclim.2022.867814
- Skill and added value of the MiKlip regional decadal prediction system for temperature over Europe H. Feldmann et al. 10.1080/16000870.2019.1618678
- Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations F. Ehmele et al. 10.5194/esd-11-469-2020
- The regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe: Hindcast skill for extremes and user‐oriented variables J. Moemken et al. 10.1002/joc.6824
- Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part I: Methodology and Application for Present Climate Conditions J. Moemken & J. Pinto 10.16993/tellusa.50
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity D. Krieger et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022
- Simulation of extreme rainfall and streamflow events in small Mediterranean watersheds with a one-way-coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system C. Camera et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2791-2020
- Drift Correction and Sub‐Ensemble Predictive Skill Evaluation of the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble With Application to Regional Studies J. Rosa‐Cánovas et al. 10.1029/2023JD039709
- Combined use of HYSPLIT model and MODIS aerosols optical depth to study the spatiotemporal circulation patterns of Saharan dust events over Central Europe N. Gammoudi et al. 10.1016/j.aeolia.2024.100899
- High-Resolution Decadal Drought Predictions for German Water Boards: A Case Study for the Wupper Catchment A. Paxian et al. 10.3389/fclim.2022.867814
- Skill and added value of the MiKlip regional decadal prediction system for temperature over Europe H. Feldmann et al. 10.1080/16000870.2019.1618678
- Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations F. Ehmele et al. 10.5194/esd-11-469-2020
- The regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe: Hindcast skill for extremes and user‐oriented variables J. Moemken et al. 10.1002/joc.6824
- Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part I: Methodology and Application for Present Climate Conditions J. Moemken & J. Pinto 10.16993/tellusa.50
Latest update: 02 Nov 2025
Short summary
In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been established to deliver highly resolved forecasts for the timescale of 1 to 10 years for Europe. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for the variables temperature, precipitation, and wind speed is provided, but the performance of the prediction system depends on region, variable, and system generation.
In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been...
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