Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case

Abstract. The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedback coefficient connecting the methane concentration in atmosphere and temperature, and on the tundra permafrost methane pool.