Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jun 2018
Research article |
| 13 Jun 2018
| 13 Jun 2018
Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming
University of Rhode Island, Graduate School of Oceanography, Narragansett, RI, USA
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
David Paynter
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Jasmin G. John
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
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Cited
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level K. Tachiiri et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199
- The Paris Target, Human Rights, and IPCC Weaknesses: Legal Arguments in Favour of Smaller Carbon Budgets F. Ekardt et al. 10.3390/environments9090112
- Energetic overturning flows, dynamic interocean exchanges, and ocean warming observed in the South Atlantic M. Chidichimo et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00644-x
- Anthropogenic aerosol drives uncertainty in future climate mitigation efforts E. Larson & R. Portmann 10.1038/s41598-019-52901-3
- Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2°C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models I. Melnikova et al. 10.1029/2020EF001967
- Effects of Ocean Slow Response under Low Warming Targets S. Long et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0213.1
- A weakened AMOC may prolong greenhouse gas–induced Mediterranean drying even with significant and rapid climate change mitigation T. Delworth et al. 10.1073/pnas.2116655119
- Environmental advocacy model for Indonesia: lessons from Greta Thunberg's speeches in 2018-2022 . Novrel Esa Yubel & . Nur Azizah 10.25139/jsk.v8i2.7964
- Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates P. Brown et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0239520
- Surface Temperature Changes Projected by FGOALS Models under Low Warming Scenarios in CMIP5 and CMIP6 S. Long et al. 10.1007/s00376-020-0177-5
- Risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways A. Meyer et al. 10.1098/rstb.2021.0394
- Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot K. Tokarska et al. 10.1029/2019EF001312
- Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers T. Frölicher et al. 10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020
- Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target J. Terhaar et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9
- Persistence of North Atlantic ocean heat uptake following CO2 concentration maximum Y. Zhang & C. Chen 10.1007/s00382-024-07397-7
- Model Uncertainty in the Projected Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Change under Low-Emission Scenarios S. Long & G. Li 10.3390/atmos12020248
- Post COP26: does the 1.5°C climate target remain alive? A. Wiltshire et al. 10.1002/wea.4331
- Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations J. Schwinger et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022
- Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM S. Wu et al. 10.3390/jmse10091231
- Persistent austral winter storm track weakening beyond doubling of CO2 concentrations R. Chemke 10.1038/s41467-025-57285-9
- Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2 F. Burger et al. 10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020
- Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries P. Roldán-Gómez et al. 10.5194/esd-16-1-2025
- The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL‐ESM 4.1): Overall Coupled Model Description and Simulation Characteristics J. Dunne et al. 10.1029/2019MS002015
- Undoing Equivalence: Rethinking Carbon Accounting for Just Carbon Removal W. Carton et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.664130
- Irreversibility of Marine Climate Change Impacts Under Carbon Dioxide Removal X. Li et al. 10.1029/2020GL088507
- Local Drivers of Marine Heatwaves: A Global Analysis With an Earth System Model L. Vogt et al. 10.3389/fclim.2022.847995
- Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world H. Baker et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0190-1
- Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time N. Bauer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/accd83
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level K. Tachiiri et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199
- The Paris Target, Human Rights, and IPCC Weaknesses: Legal Arguments in Favour of Smaller Carbon Budgets F. Ekardt et al. 10.3390/environments9090112
- Energetic overturning flows, dynamic interocean exchanges, and ocean warming observed in the South Atlantic M. Chidichimo et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00644-x
- Anthropogenic aerosol drives uncertainty in future climate mitigation efforts E. Larson & R. Portmann 10.1038/s41598-019-52901-3
- Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2°C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models I. Melnikova et al. 10.1029/2020EF001967
- Effects of Ocean Slow Response under Low Warming Targets S. Long et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0213.1
- A weakened AMOC may prolong greenhouse gas–induced Mediterranean drying even with significant and rapid climate change mitigation T. Delworth et al. 10.1073/pnas.2116655119
- Environmental advocacy model for Indonesia: lessons from Greta Thunberg's speeches in 2018-2022 . Novrel Esa Yubel & . Nur Azizah 10.25139/jsk.v8i2.7964
- Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates P. Brown et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0239520
- Surface Temperature Changes Projected by FGOALS Models under Low Warming Scenarios in CMIP5 and CMIP6 S. Long et al. 10.1007/s00376-020-0177-5
- Risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways A. Meyer et al. 10.1098/rstb.2021.0394
- Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot K. Tokarska et al. 10.1029/2019EF001312
- Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers T. Frölicher et al. 10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020
- Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target J. Terhaar et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9
- Persistence of North Atlantic ocean heat uptake following CO2 concentration maximum Y. Zhang & C. Chen 10.1007/s00382-024-07397-7
- Model Uncertainty in the Projected Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Change under Low-Emission Scenarios S. Long & G. Li 10.3390/atmos12020248
- Post COP26: does the 1.5°C climate target remain alive? A. Wiltshire et al. 10.1002/wea.4331
- Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations J. Schwinger et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022
- Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM S. Wu et al. 10.3390/jmse10091231
- Persistent austral winter storm track weakening beyond doubling of CO2 concentrations R. Chemke 10.1038/s41467-025-57285-9
- Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2 F. Burger et al. 10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020
- Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries P. Roldán-Gómez et al. 10.5194/esd-16-1-2025
- The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL‐ESM 4.1): Overall Coupled Model Description and Simulation Characteristics J. Dunne et al. 10.1029/2019MS002015
- Undoing Equivalence: Rethinking Carbon Accounting for Just Carbon Removal W. Carton et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.664130
- Irreversibility of Marine Climate Change Impacts Under Carbon Dioxide Removal X. Li et al. 10.1029/2020GL088507
- Local Drivers of Marine Heatwaves: A Global Analysis With an Earth System Model L. Vogt et al. 10.3389/fclim.2022.847995
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may require carbon removal from the atmosphere. We explore how the climate system differs when we achieve the 1.5 °C limit by rapid emissions reductions versus when we overshoot this limit, hitting 2 °C at mid-century before removing CO2 from the atmosphere. We show that sea level, ocean acidification, regional warming, and ocean circulation are very different under the overshoot pathway at 2100, despite hitting the 1.5 °C target for surface warming.
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may require carbon removal from the atmosphere. We explore how...
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