Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Research article
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30 Aug 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 30 Aug 2018

Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe

Martha M. Vogel, Jakob Zscheischler, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

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Short summary
Climate change projections of temperature extremes are particularly uncertain in central Europe. We demonstrate that varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks in current climate models leads to an enhancement of model differences; thus, they can explain the large uncertainties in extreme temperature projections. Using an observation-based constraint, we show that the strong drying and large increase in temperatures exhibited by models on the hottest day in central Europe are highly unlikely.
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