Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5&thinsp;°C global warming target

Chen, Jie; Liu, Yujie; Pan, Tao; Liu, Yanhua; Sun, Fubao; Ge, Quansheng

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018

Articles | Volume 9, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 3

Research article

| Highlight paper

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29 Aug 2018

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 29 Aug 2018

Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 °C global warming target

Jie Chen, Yujie Liu, Tao Pan, Yanhua Liu, Fubao Sun, and Quansheng Ge

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018-supplement

Data sets

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): project framework L. Warszawski, K. Frieler, V. Huber, F. Piontek, O. Serdeczny, and J. Schewe https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110

Estimation of gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling D. Murakami and Y. Yamagata https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.09041

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Short summary

Results show that an additional 6.97 million people will be exposed to droughts in China under a 1.5 ºC target relative to reference period, mostly in the east of China. Demographic change is the primary contributor to exposure. Moderate droughts contribute the most to exposure among 3 grades of drought. Our simulations suggest that drought impact on people will continue to be a large threat to China under the 1.5 ºC target. It will be helpful in guiding adaptation and mitigation strategies.