Articles | Volume 8, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
05 Jul 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 05 Jul 2017
Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Anders Levermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, USA
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Cited
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impact of 1.5 K global warming on urban air pollution and heat island with outlook on human health effects J. Mika et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2018.05.013
- Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited: A rejoinder J. Selby et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.08.001
- Water resources planning in the Upper Niger River basin: Are there gaps between water demand and supply? S. Liersch et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.12.006
- The Role of Nonlinear Drying above the Boundary Layer in the Mid-Holocene African Monsoon V. Dixit et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0234.1
- Sahel Rainfall Projections Constrained by Past Sensitivity to Global Warming J. Schewe & A. Levermann https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098286
- The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery A. Giannini & A. Kaplan https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2341-9
- Modelling temperature‐precipitation pressures on African timber heritage J. Richards et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8273
- Global precipitation change during the Holocene: a combination of records and simulations W. Ye & Y. Li https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-1047-5
- Variations in the Peczely Macro-Synoptic Types (1881–2020) with Attention to Weather Extremes in the Pannonian Basin J. Mika et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081071
- A global dust emission dataset for estimating dust radiative forcings in climate models D. Leung et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2311-2025
- Climate data uncertainty for agricultural impact assessments in West Africa P. Romanovska et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04430-3
- Recent climate trends for the Volta Basin in West Africa D. Darko et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3303
- Wintering range of western yellow wagtail <em>Motacilla flava</em> in Africa and Europe in a historical perspective F. Ferlini https://doi.org/10.4081/rio.2020.430
- The Physical Climate at Global Warming Thresholds as Seen in the U.K. Earth System Model https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0234.1
- The Pterophoridae fauna of Mali (Insecta: Lepidoptera) P. Ustjuzhanin et al. https://doi.org/10.57065/shilap.922
- Rainfall variabilities and droughts in the Savannah zone of Ghana from 1960-2015 A. Incoom et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2020.e00571
- Observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks in the Sahel dominated by a moisture recycling mechanism Y. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02021-1
- Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa U. Akumaga & A. Tarhule https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120497
- Mortality impact of low annual crop yields in a subsistence farming population of Burkina Faso under the current and a 1.5 °C warmer climate in 2100 K. Belesova et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.027
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impact of 1.5 K global warming on urban air pollution and heat island with outlook on human health effects J. Mika et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2018.05.013
- Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited: A rejoinder J. Selby et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.08.001
- Water resources planning in the Upper Niger River basin: Are there gaps between water demand and supply? S. Liersch et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.12.006
- The Role of Nonlinear Drying above the Boundary Layer in the Mid-Holocene African Monsoon V. Dixit et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0234.1
- Sahel Rainfall Projections Constrained by Past Sensitivity to Global Warming J. Schewe & A. Levermann https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098286
- The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery A. Giannini & A. Kaplan https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2341-9
- Modelling temperature‐precipitation pressures on African timber heritage J. Richards et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8273
- Global precipitation change during the Holocene: a combination of records and simulations W. Ye & Y. Li https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-1047-5
- Variations in the Peczely Macro-Synoptic Types (1881–2020) with Attention to Weather Extremes in the Pannonian Basin J. Mika et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081071
- A global dust emission dataset for estimating dust radiative forcings in climate models D. Leung et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2311-2025
- Climate data uncertainty for agricultural impact assessments in West Africa P. Romanovska et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04430-3
- Recent climate trends for the Volta Basin in West Africa D. Darko et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3303
- Wintering range of western yellow wagtail <em>Motacilla flava</em> in Africa and Europe in a historical perspective F. Ferlini https://doi.org/10.4081/rio.2020.430
- The Physical Climate at Global Warming Thresholds as Seen in the U.K. Earth System Model https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0234.1
- The Pterophoridae fauna of Mali (Insecta: Lepidoptera) P. Ustjuzhanin et al. https://doi.org/10.57065/shilap.922
- Rainfall variabilities and droughts in the Savannah zone of Ghana from 1960-2015 A. Incoom et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2020.e00571
- Observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks in the Sahel dominated by a moisture recycling mechanism Y. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02021-1
- Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa U. Akumaga & A. Tarhule https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120497
- Mortality impact of low annual crop yields in a subsistence farming population of Burkina Faso under the current and a 1.5 °C warmer climate in 2100 K. Belesova et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.027
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Aug 2026
Short summary
Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations show that threshold behavior can follow from the internal dynamics of monsoons. So far, however, the possibility of abrupt changes has not been explored for modern monsoon systems. We analyze state-of-the-art climate model simulations and show that some models project abrupt changes in Sahel rainfall in response to a dynamic shift in the West African monsoon under 21st century climate change.
Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations...
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