Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-295-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-295-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Apr 2016
Research article |
| 07 Apr 2016
The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks
A. Kessler
Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Pierre and Marie Curie University, Paris, France
Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Cited
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Improved atmospheric constraints on Southern Ocean CO 2 exchange Y. Jin et al. 10.1073/pnas.2309333121
- Seasonal Variability of the Surface Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Synthesis K. Rodgers et al. 10.1029/2023GB007798
- The Variable Southern Ocean Carbon Sink N. Gruber et al. 10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063407
- Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models H. Hewitt et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00164-w
- The emergence of the Gulf Stream and interior western boundary as key regions to constrain the future North Atlantic carbon uptake N. Goris et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023
- Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget J. Hauck et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.571720
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
- Eddy‐Driven Transport of Particulate Organic Carbon‐Rich Coastal Water Off the West Antarctic Peninsula R. Castelao et al. 10.1029/2020JC016791
- Quantifying the Role of Seasonality in the Marine Carbon Cycle Feedback: An ESM2M Case Study A. Fassbender et al. 10.1029/2021GB007018
- Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks T. Hajima et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020
- Summer trends and drivers of sea surface fCO<sub>2</sub> and pH changes observed in the southern Indian Ocean over the last two decades (1998–2019) C. Leseurre et al. 10.5194/bg-19-2599-2022
- Extratropical storms induce carbon outgassing over the Southern Ocean M. Carranza et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00657-7
- Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink constrained by sea surface salinity J. Terhaar et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abd5964
- Revisiting Interior Water Mass Responses to Surface Forcing Changes and the Subsequent Effects on Overturning in the Southern Ocean J. Tesdal et al. 10.1029/2022JC019105
- ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation C. Heinze et al. 10.5194/esd-10-379-2019
- Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 R. Séférian et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0
- Ventilation of the Southern Ocean Pycnocline A. Morrison et al. 10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-011012
- Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control T. Xue et al. 10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024
- Quantifying Errors in Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Carbon Sink Variability L. Gloege et al. 10.1029/2020GB006788
- Ocean biogeochemistry in the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 (NorESM2) J. Tjiputra et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020
- Narrowing the spread in CMIP5 model projections of air-sea CO2 fluxes L. Wang et al. 10.1038/srep37548
- Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictability F. Fransner et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00386
- Storms drive outgassing of CO2 in the subpolar Southern Ocean S. Nicholson et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27780-w
- The Heat and Carbon Characteristics of Modeled Mesoscale Eddies in the South–East Atlantic Ocean T. Smith et al. 10.1029/2023JC020337
- Anthropogenic CO2, air–sea CO2 fluxes, and acidification in the Southern Ocean: results from a time-series analysis at station OISO-KERFIX (51° S–68° E) N. Metzl et al. 10.5194/os-20-725-2024
- Constraining Projection-Based Estimates of the Future North Atlantic Carbon Uptake N. Goris et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0564.1
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Arctic Ocean annual high in $${{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}$$ could shift from winter to summer J. Orr et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-05205-y
- The Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle 1985–2018: Mean, Seasonal Cycle, Trends, and Storage J. Hauck et al. 10.1029/2023GB007848
- Estimation of Ocean Biogeochemical Parameters in an Earth System Model Using the Dual One Step Ahead Smoother: A Twin Experiment T. Singh et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.775394
- Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S T. Bourgeois et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5
- The seasonal cycle of <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes in the Southern Ocean: diagnosing anomalies in CMIP5 Earth system models N. Mongwe et al. 10.5194/bg-15-2851-2018
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Improved atmospheric constraints on Southern Ocean CO 2 exchange Y. Jin et al. 10.1073/pnas.2309333121
- Seasonal Variability of the Surface Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Synthesis K. Rodgers et al. 10.1029/2023GB007798
- The Variable Southern Ocean Carbon Sink N. Gruber et al. 10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063407
- Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models H. Hewitt et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00164-w
- The emergence of the Gulf Stream and interior western boundary as key regions to constrain the future North Atlantic carbon uptake N. Goris et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023
- Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget J. Hauck et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.571720
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
- Eddy‐Driven Transport of Particulate Organic Carbon‐Rich Coastal Water Off the West Antarctic Peninsula R. Castelao et al. 10.1029/2020JC016791
- Quantifying the Role of Seasonality in the Marine Carbon Cycle Feedback: An ESM2M Case Study A. Fassbender et al. 10.1029/2021GB007018
- Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks T. Hajima et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020
- Summer trends and drivers of sea surface fCO<sub>2</sub> and pH changes observed in the southern Indian Ocean over the last two decades (1998–2019) C. Leseurre et al. 10.5194/bg-19-2599-2022
- Extratropical storms induce carbon outgassing over the Southern Ocean M. Carranza et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00657-7
- Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink constrained by sea surface salinity J. Terhaar et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abd5964
- Revisiting Interior Water Mass Responses to Surface Forcing Changes and the Subsequent Effects on Overturning in the Southern Ocean J. Tesdal et al. 10.1029/2022JC019105
- ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation C. Heinze et al. 10.5194/esd-10-379-2019
- Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 R. Séférian et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0
- Ventilation of the Southern Ocean Pycnocline A. Morrison et al. 10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-011012
- Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control T. Xue et al. 10.5194/bg-21-2473-2024
- Quantifying Errors in Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Carbon Sink Variability L. Gloege et al. 10.1029/2020GB006788
- Ocean biogeochemistry in the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 (NorESM2) J. Tjiputra et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020
- Narrowing the spread in CMIP5 model projections of air-sea CO2 fluxes L. Wang et al. 10.1038/srep37548
- Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictability F. Fransner et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00386
- Storms drive outgassing of CO2 in the subpolar Southern Ocean S. Nicholson et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27780-w
- The Heat and Carbon Characteristics of Modeled Mesoscale Eddies in the South–East Atlantic Ocean T. Smith et al. 10.1029/2023JC020337
- Anthropogenic CO2, air–sea CO2 fluxes, and acidification in the Southern Ocean: results from a time-series analysis at station OISO-KERFIX (51° S–68° E) N. Metzl et al. 10.5194/os-20-725-2024
- Constraining Projection-Based Estimates of the Future North Atlantic Carbon Uptake N. Goris et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0564.1
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Arctic Ocean annual high in $${{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}$$ could shift from winter to summer J. Orr et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-05205-y
- The Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle 1985–2018: Mean, Seasonal Cycle, Trends, and Storage J. Hauck et al. 10.1029/2023GB007848
- Estimation of Ocean Biogeochemical Parameters in an Earth System Model Using the Dual One Step Ahead Smoother: A Twin Experiment T. Singh et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.775394
- Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S T. Bourgeois et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5
- The seasonal cycle of <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes in the Southern Ocean: diagnosing anomalies in CMIP5 Earth system models N. Mongwe et al. 10.5194/bg-15-2851-2018
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
The uncertainty of ocean carbon uptake in ESMs is projected to grow 2-fold by the end of the 21st century. We found that models that take up anomalously low (high) CO2 in the Southern Ocean (SO) today project low (high) cumulative CO2 uptake in the 21st century; thus the SO can be used to constrain future global uptake uncertainty. Inter-model spread in the SO carbon sink arises from variations in the pCO2 seasonality, specifically bias in the simulated timing and amplitude of NPP and SST.
The uncertainty of ocean carbon uptake in ESMs is projected to grow 2-fold by the end of the...
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