Lifetime of soil moisture perturbations in a coupled land–atmosphere simulation

Abstract. In order to evaluate whether the initialization of soil moisture has the potential to improve the prediction skill of earth system models (ESMs) on seasonal to decadal timescales, an elaborate experiment was conducted. For this task a coupled land–atmosphere model with prescribed ocean was utilized. The experiment design considered soil moisture initialization in different seasons and years and yielded information about the lifetime (memory) of extreme yet realistic soil moisture perturbations. Our analyses were focused on root zone soil moisture (RootSM) as it comprises the part of the soil that directly interacts with the atmosphere via bare-soil evaporation and transpiration. We found that RootSM memory differs not only spatially but also depends on the time of initialization. A long memory of up to 1 year is evident mostly for dry soil moisture regimes after heavy precipitation periods or prior to snow covered conditions. Short memory below 2 weeks prevails in wet soil moisture regimes and prior to distinct precipitation periods or snowmelt. Furthermore, RootSM perturbations affect other land surface states, e.g. soil temperature and leaf carbon content, and even induce anomalies with specific memory in these variables. Especially for deep-layer soil temperature, these anomalies can last for up to several years. As long as RootSM memory is evident, we found that anomalies occur periodically in other land surface states whenever climate conditions allow for interactions between that state and RootSM. Additionally, anomaly recurrence is visible for RootSM itself. This recurrence is related to the thickness of the soil layer below the root zone and can affect RootSM for several years. From our findings we conclude that soil moisture initialization has the potential to improve the predictive skill of climate models on seasonal scales and beyond. However, a sophisticated, multilayered soil hydrology scheme is necessary to allow for the interactions between RootSM and the deep-soil layer reservoir.