Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-637-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-637-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Sep 2015
Research article |
| 29 Sep 2015
The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM): using scaling to forecast global-scale macroweather from months to decades
Physics, McGill University, 3600 University St., Montreal, Que. H3A 2T8, Canada
L. del Rio Amador
Physics, McGill University, 3600 University St., Montreal, Que. H3A 2T8, Canada
R. Hébert
Physics, McGill University, 3600 University St., Montreal, Que. H3A 2T8, Canada
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Cited
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Regional Climate Sensitivity‐ and Historical‐Based Projections to 2100 R. Hébert & S. Lovejoy 10.1002/2017GL076649
- Comparing estimation techniques for temporal scaling in palaeoclimate time series R. Hébert et al. 10.5194/npg-28-311-2021
- The half-order energy balance equation – Part 2: The inhomogeneous HEBE and 2D energy balance models S. Lovejoy 10.5194/esd-12-489-2021
- Comment on "Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcing" by S. Lovejoy and C. Varotsos (2016) K. Rypdal & M. Rypdal 10.5194/esd-7-597-2016
- The half-order energy balance equation – Part 1: The homogeneous HEBE and long memories S. Lovejoy 10.5194/esd-12-469-2021
- Fractional relaxation noises, motions and the fractional energy balance equation S. Lovejoy 10.5194/npg-29-93-2022
- The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100 R. Procyk et al. 10.5194/esd-13-81-2022
- Macroweather precipitation variability up to global and centennial scales M. de Lima & S. Lovejoy 10.1002/2015WR017455
- Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcings S. Lovejoy & C. Varotsos 10.5194/esd-7-133-2016
- The impact of long-term memory on the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions N. Yuan et al. 10.1038/s41612-022-00298-8
- Long‐Range Forecasting as a Past Value Problem: Untangling Correlations and Causality With Scaling L. Del Rio Amador & S. Lovejoy 10.1029/2020GL092147
- Review article: Scaling, dynamical regimes, and stratification. How long does weather last? How big is a cloud? S. Lovejoy 10.5194/npg-30-311-2023
- Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records? T. Nilsen et al. 10.5194/esd-7-419-2016
- Bayesian multiproxy temperature reconstruction with black spruce ring widths and stable isotopes from the northern Quebec taiga F. Gennaretti et al. 10.1007/s00382-017-3565-5
- The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales C. Franzke et al. 10.1029/2019RG000657
- Understanding long-term memory in global mean temperature: An attribution study based on model simulations M. QIU et al. 10.1080/16742834.2020.1778418
- Identifying the sources of seasonal predictability based on climate memory analysis and variance decomposition D. Nian et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05444-7
- On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory? N. Yuan et al. 10.1007/s00382-018-4168-5
- The multi-scale structure of atmospheric energetic constraints on globally averaged precipitation M. Nogueira 10.5194/esd-10-219-2019
- Using regional scaling for temperature forecasts with the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) L. Del Rio Amador & S. Lovejoy 10.1007/s00382-021-05737-5
- The Fractional MacroEvolution Model: a simple quantitative scaling macroevolution model S. Lovejoy & A. Spiridonov 10.1017/pab.2023.38
- Predicting the global temperature with the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) L. Del Rio Amador & S. Lovejoy 10.1007/s00382-019-04791-4
- CanStoc: A Hybrid Stochastic–GCM System for Monthly, Seasonal and Interannual Predictions S. Lovejoy & L. Del Rio Amador 10.3390/meteorology2040029
- The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models S. Lovejoy & M. de Lima 10.1063/1.4927223
- How accurately do we know the temperature of the surface of the earth? S. Lovejoy 10.1007/s00382-017-3561-9
- Mars' atmosphere: The sister planet, our statistical twin W. Chen et al. 10.1002/2016JD025211
- Multifractality distinguishes reactive from proactive cascades in postural control D. Kelty-Stephen et al. 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110471
- Using scaling for macroweather forecasting including the pause S. Lovejoy 10.1002/2015GL065665
- An observation-based scaling model for climate sensitivity estimates and global projections to 2100 R. Hébert et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05521-x
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Regional Climate Sensitivity‐ and Historical‐Based Projections to 2100 R. Hébert & S. Lovejoy 10.1002/2017GL076649
- Comparing estimation techniques for temporal scaling in palaeoclimate time series R. Hébert et al. 10.5194/npg-28-311-2021
- The half-order energy balance equation – Part 2: The inhomogeneous HEBE and 2D energy balance models S. Lovejoy 10.5194/esd-12-489-2021
- Comment on "Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcing" by S. Lovejoy and C. Varotsos (2016) K. Rypdal & M. Rypdal 10.5194/esd-7-597-2016
- The half-order energy balance equation – Part 1: The homogeneous HEBE and long memories S. Lovejoy 10.5194/esd-12-469-2021
- Fractional relaxation noises, motions and the fractional energy balance equation S. Lovejoy 10.5194/npg-29-93-2022
- The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100 R. Procyk et al. 10.5194/esd-13-81-2022
- Macroweather precipitation variability up to global and centennial scales M. de Lima & S. Lovejoy 10.1002/2015WR017455
- Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcings S. Lovejoy & C. Varotsos 10.5194/esd-7-133-2016
- The impact of long-term memory on the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions N. Yuan et al. 10.1038/s41612-022-00298-8
- Long‐Range Forecasting as a Past Value Problem: Untangling Correlations and Causality With Scaling L. Del Rio Amador & S. Lovejoy 10.1029/2020GL092147
- Review article: Scaling, dynamical regimes, and stratification. How long does weather last? How big is a cloud? S. Lovejoy 10.5194/npg-30-311-2023
- Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records? T. Nilsen et al. 10.5194/esd-7-419-2016
- Bayesian multiproxy temperature reconstruction with black spruce ring widths and stable isotopes from the northern Quebec taiga F. Gennaretti et al. 10.1007/s00382-017-3565-5
- The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales C. Franzke et al. 10.1029/2019RG000657
- Understanding long-term memory in global mean temperature: An attribution study based on model simulations M. QIU et al. 10.1080/16742834.2020.1778418
- Identifying the sources of seasonal predictability based on climate memory analysis and variance decomposition D. Nian et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05444-7
- On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory? N. Yuan et al. 10.1007/s00382-018-4168-5
- The multi-scale structure of atmospheric energetic constraints on globally averaged precipitation M. Nogueira 10.5194/esd-10-219-2019
- Using regional scaling for temperature forecasts with the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) L. Del Rio Amador & S. Lovejoy 10.1007/s00382-021-05737-5
- The Fractional MacroEvolution Model: a simple quantitative scaling macroevolution model S. Lovejoy & A. Spiridonov 10.1017/pab.2023.38
- Predicting the global temperature with the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) L. Del Rio Amador & S. Lovejoy 10.1007/s00382-019-04791-4
- CanStoc: A Hybrid Stochastic–GCM System for Monthly, Seasonal and Interannual Predictions S. Lovejoy & L. Del Rio Amador 10.3390/meteorology2040029
6 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models S. Lovejoy & M. de Lima 10.1063/1.4927223
- How accurately do we know the temperature of the surface of the earth? S. Lovejoy 10.1007/s00382-017-3561-9
- Mars' atmosphere: The sister planet, our statistical twin W. Chen et al. 10.1002/2016JD025211
- Multifractality distinguishes reactive from proactive cascades in postural control D. Kelty-Stephen et al. 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110471
- Using scaling for macroweather forecasting including the pause S. Lovejoy 10.1002/2015GL065665
- An observation-based scaling model for climate sensitivity estimates and global projections to 2100 R. Hébert et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05521-x
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Latest update: 23 Nov 2024
Short summary
Numerical climate models forecast the weather well beyond the deterministic limit. In this “macroweather” regime, they are random number generators. Stochastic models can have more realistic noises and can be forced to converge to the real-world climate. Existing stochastic models do not exploit the very long atmospheric and oceanic memories. With skill up to decades, our new ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) exploits this to make forecasts more accurate than GCMs.
Numerical climate models forecast the weather well beyond the deterministic limit. In this...
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