Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-581-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-581-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 May 2026
Research article |
| 21 May 2026
| 21 May 2026
Projected elevation-dependent warming in the Alps: contrasting free-atmosphere and surface trends with surface energy balance drivers
Ian Castellanos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Martin Ménégoz
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Juliette Blanchet
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Julien Beaumet
Atmo Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Grenoble, France
Hubert Gallée
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
now at: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Chantal Staquet
Laboratoire des Écoulements Géophysiques et Industriels, Grenoble, France
Xavier Fettweis
Department of Geography, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium
Related authors
No articles found.
Sebastian Berghald, Juliette Blanchet, Antoine Blanc, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 6421–6442, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6421-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-6421-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Our study analyses extreme precipitation in the French Alps using extreme value theory on long-term observations. We compare daily and hourly observations and find regionally and seasonally different trends. On annual resolution, daily extremes show positive trends in the south and negative trends in the north, while trends in hourly extremes are noisier with an appearing east-west divide between increases in the high Alps and decreases in the pre-Alps.
María Santolaria-Otín, Charles Amory, Martin Ménégoz, Fanny Brun, Xavier Faïn, Xavier Fettweis, Mondher Chekki, Patrick Wagnon, Dibas Shrestha, and Arbindra Khadka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4572, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
High Mountain Asia contains the largest concentration of glacier ice outside the polar regions and supplies water to hundreds of millions of people, yet its climate remains poorly understood because of its complex terrain and limited observations. We produced a high-resolution climate dataset for the Pamir and Central Himalaya covering 1950–2025. It captures seasonal climate and snow changes and will support studies of water resources, glaciers, and natural hazards.
Nicolas Decoopman, Juliette Blanchet, Antoine Blanc, and Cécile Caillaud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 5833–5855, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5833-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5833-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the ability of the convection-permitting regional climate model AROME (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale) to reproduce precipitation extremes and their trends, at daily and hourly scales in France, over 1959–2022. Overall, the results highlight the value of the explicit-convection model for extreme precipitation studies, while also highlighting its limitations for convective extremes.
Christian Torres, Deniz Bozkurt, Vincent Favier, Victoire Buffet, Claudio Bravo, Xavier Fettweis, Thomas Dethinne, Antoine Rabatel, Maximiliano Viale, Sang-Jong Park, and Jorge Arigony-Neto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3508, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated periods when unusually warm conditions in Patagonia occurred at the same time as precipitation events on the Antarctic Peninsula. By combining observations and simulations, we identified 127 such events between 1980 and 2022. These events increased ice melt in Patagonia while enhancing accumulation on the Antarctic Peninsula, highlighting how large-scale weather patterns can simultaneously affect ice-covered regions in different ways.
Marco Tedesco, Racheet Matai, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 20, 4235–4253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4235-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4235-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a machine learning emulator of a climate model simulating melting over Greenland that performs as well as the original model but it is much faster. We show that this emulator can be used as powerful tools to complement regional climate models by enabling computationally efficient ensemble simulations and physically interpretable attribution of past and future Greenland surface melt. Development of regional climate models should go hand in hand with ML-based tools.
Eneko Martin-Martinez, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Fraser William Goldsworth, Jin-Song von Storch, Cristina Arumi, Daria Kuznetsova, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Pablo Ortega
Ocean Sci., 22, 2307–2331, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2307-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-2307-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of Greenland meltwaters on the ocean circulation and the North Atlantic region. To this end, we impose a quasi-realistic distribution of freshwater fluxes in a global climate model with 8-km horizontal resolution, much finer than the standard 100-km scale. The study reveals that the meltwaters disperse unevenly across the North Atlantic, guided by boundary currents and modulated by gradual changes in the large-scale circulation, which undergoes a progressive weakening.
Guillaume Timmermans, Brice Noël, Christoph Kittel, Thomas Dethinne, Nicolas Ghilain, and Xavier Fettweis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2341, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how well a regional climate model reproduces changes in the mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface processes, an important driver of sea level rise. By comparing model results with observations, we show that high-resolution simulations closely match reality. Coarser simulations are less detailed near the edges but remain reliable overall. A resolution of 10 kilometers provides a good balance between accuracy and computing cost for long-term projections.
Paul Fournier, Antoine Blanc, Juliette Blanchet, and Matthieu Lafaysse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2497, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
When rain falls on snow, the combined effect of rainfall and snowmelt can generate flooding. Using hourly weather data across the French Alps over 1958–2024, we identified and characterized such rain-on-snow events and linked them to documented natural hazard events. While these events have become less frequent overall due to shorter snow seasons, the most intense ones have shifted toward lower, more populated elevations, meaning they are increasingly likely to impact communities.
Gerhard Krinner, Aude Champouillon, Juliette Blanchet, and Frédérique Chéruy
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4961–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4961-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4961-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Although the scientific community has made much progress over the last decades, climate models still do not perfectly simulate the present climate. Therefore, the model outputs are usually corrected for these errors. This article presents a method to apply successive stages of repeated error correction that lead to a better simulation of the present climate than in previous studies, in which the same correction method had been applied only once.
Ian Simpson, Edward Hanna, Ryan S. Williams, Linh Luu, Andrew Orr, Julie Jones, Xavier Fettweis, Jose Abraham Torres Alavez, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Ella Gilbert, Sid Gumber, Christoph Kittel, Sihan Li, Damien Maure, Ruth Mottram, Tony Phillips, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Kristiina Verro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2270, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The warming trend in global temperatures has potential to result in accelerated break up of the Antarctic ice shelves, which would contribute to rising sea levels. Here we present a novel database of Antarctic extreme weather events over a selection of the Antarctic ice shelves. We examine air temperature, precipitation, wind and surface pressure. In addition, we examine trends in the frequency of extreme events and the links with weather patterns around Antarctica.
Aude Champouillon, Gerhard Krinner, and Juliette Blanchet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1380, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are essential to quantify future climate change. Despite constant progress, they still exhibit errors in long-term statistics of key variables. Impact studies require using bias correction, typically applied on model outputs. Empirical run-time bias correction (ERBC), however, consist in adding empirical corrective terms to the equations of key variables. Here, we propose an intercomparison of ERBC methods, evaluated on a broad range of criteria, from global to regional scale.
Raf Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Pierre Gentine, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 20, 3131–3149, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3131-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3131-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We study why Greenland ice melts faster by improving how ice brightness is represented. This is important because it controls how much sunlight is absorbed by the ice. Using satellite data and a new transparent machine learning method trained with climate model information, we capture how the shape of the ice sheet, temperature, and meltwater change ice brightness. Our approach outperforms existing climate models and can reduce uncertainty in future sea level rise projections.
Fredrik Boberg, Xavier Fettweis, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 20, 2947–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2947-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2947-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
An ensemble of regional climate model simulations is used to estimate the 21st century change in precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet. For the end of the century, the change is in the range 40 to 170 Gt per year, depending on the emission scenario. Using annual values of 2 m air temperature and precipitation, we estimate an increase in precipitation of 35 Gt per year for every degree of warming.
Jonathon R. Preece, Patrick Alexander, Thomas L. Mote, Gabriel J. Kooperman, Xavier Fettweis, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 20, 2871–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2871-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2871-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Surface melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased dramatically since the turn of the century, aided by an increase in persistent atmospheric circulation patterns that promote anomalously warm conditions. Through modeling experiments, this study shows that surface mass loss would have been reduced by 62% relative to historical conditions if this shift in atmospheric circulation would have occurred under the lower average temperatures of a preindustrial climate.
Ella Gilbert, José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Marte G. Hofsteenge, Willem Jan van de Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Christiaan Timo van Dalum, Xavier Fettweis, Siddharth Gumber, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Damien Maure, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Maurice van Tiggelen, Kristiina Verro, and Priscilla A. Mooney
The Cryosphere, 20, 2629–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2629-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2629-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present a new dataset – the PolarRES ensemble – of four state-of-the-art regional climate models, which capture the full complexity of Antarctica's climate. The ensemble out-performs other available tools, advancing our ability to explore Antarctic climate. While it still has limitations, the PolarRES ensemble offers a novel and exciting way of evaluating climate processes and features, and we encourage researchers to use the data, which are freely available.
Audrey Goutard, Marion Réveillet, Fanny Brun, Delphine Six, Kevin Fourteau, Charles Amory, Xavier Fettweis, Mathieu Fructus, Arbindra Khadka, and Matthieu Lafaysse
The Cryosphere, 20, 2393–2416, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2393-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2393-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
A new scheme has been developed in a snowpack model (SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus), to consider the impact of liquid water dynamics on bare ice, including albedo feedback and refreezing. When applied to the Mera Glacier in Nepal, the model reveals strong seasonal effects on the energy and mass balance, with increased melting in dry seasons and significant refreezing during the monsoon. This development improves mass balance modeling under increasing rainfall and bare ice exposure due to climate warming.
Gabrielle Sorini, Juliette Blanchet, Gérémy Panthou, Théo Vischel, and Yves Tramblay
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1176, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates regional flood trends across West Africa using time-varying extreme-value distributions. While most catchments show declining flood magnitudes up to the 1970s–1990s, recent trends diverge, ranging from decrease to intensification, revealing an original typology of regional hydrosystems. These results refine the narrative of hydrological changes in West Africa and provide clues to their attribution.
Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, Guillaume Evin, and Emmanuel Paquet
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 87–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-87-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-87-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study advances nonstationary precipitation modeling by using single, flexible distributions to analyze trends across the full daily spectrum. We demonstrate that evolving shape parameters are critical for accurately capturing observed differential changes in low, medium, and extreme quantiles. This method ensures statistical consistency, providing reliable trend assessments over the two-component framework common in climate impact analysis.
Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Max Brils, Brice Noël, Nicole Clerx, Nicolas Jullien, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 20, 427–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-427-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-427-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt expands to higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet. This is visible on satellite imagery in the form of rivers of meltwater running across the surface of the ice sheet. We compare model results of meltwater at high elevations on the ice sheet to satellite observations. We find that each of the models shows strengths and weaknesses. A detailed look into the model results reveals potential reasons for the differences between models.
Chloë Marie Paice, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 20, 309–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
To study Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere interactions, we coupled an ice sheet model to a regional climate model and performed simulations of differing coupling complexity over 1000 years under a high-warming climate scenario. They reveal that at first melt at the ice sheet margin is reduced by changing wind patterns. But over time, as the ice sheet melts and its surface lowers, precipitation patterns and cloudiness also change and amplify ice mass loss over the entire ice sheet.
Camille Crapart, Sandrine Anquetin, Juliette Blanchet, and Arona Diedhiou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 163–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-163-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-163-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Our study investigates global dryland dynamics and aridification under future climate scenarios. By employing the Food and Agriculture Organisation Aridity Index and an ensemble of 13 models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we provide projections for dryland distribution and aridity index across three shared socio-economic pathways (2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5) for the near-term (2030–2059) and for the long-term (2070–2099) future.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Amanda Frigola, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Margarida Samsó, Saskia Loosvelt-Tomas, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Daria Kuznetsova, Xia Lin, and Pablo Ortega
Ocean Sci., 21, 3507–3540, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-3507-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compared to standard resolution models, mesoscale eddy-resolving models present a more realistic stratification in the subpolar North Atlantic, an Atlantic overturning profile closer to RAPID observations, and an improved structure of the subpolar gyre and Gulf Stream. Although surface biases in the Central North Atlantic are reduced, the representation of the North Atlantic Current path and strength in mesoscale-resolving models requires further improvement.
Thomas Dethinne, Nicolas Ghilain, Christoph Kittel, Benjamin Lecart, Xavier Fettweis, and François Jonard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3907, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study replace standard vegetation input of a regional climate model with a satellite-based vegetation dataset to assess how vegetation influences climate during extreme events and to test the sensitivity of the model. The results show a non-linear sensitivity to vegetation, and using an observation-based vegetation input allows for a better representation of the extreme events, highlight the need for an advanced representation of vegetation in climate model to improve climate predictions.
Kristiina Verro, Cecilia Äijälä, Roberta Pirazzini, Ruzica Dadic, Damien Maure, Willem Jan van de Berg, Giacomo Traversa, Christiaan T. van Dalum, Petteri Uotila, Xavier Fettweis, Biagio Di Mauro, and Milla Johansson
The Cryosphere, 19, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately representing Antarctic sea ice is essential for reliable climate and ocean model predictions. We evaluated how different models simulate the sea ice's sunlight reflectivity (called albedo) using field and satellite data. Models with simple albedo schemes performed well in limited cases but missed key processes. The advanced scheme in the MetROMS-UHel ocean model provided the most accurate results, including observed day–night albedo changes observed during a field campaign.
Serigne Bassirou Diop, Job Ekolu, Yves Tramblay, Bastien Dieppois, Stefania Grimaldi, Ansoumana Bodian, Juliette Blanchet, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Salamon, and Benjamin Sultan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3161–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3161-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3161-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
West Africa is very vulnerable to river floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
Zhengwen Yan, Jiangjun Ran, Pavel Ditmar, C. K. Shum, Roland Klees, Patrick Smith, and Xavier Fettweis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4253–4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4253-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has greatly improved our understanding of changes in Earth's gravity field over time. A novel mass concentration (mascon) dataset, GCL-Mascon2024, was determined by leveraging the short-arc approach, advanced spatial constraints, a frequency-dependent noise processing strategy, and parameterization-integrating natural boundaries, aiming to enhance accuracy for monitoring mass transportation on Earth.
Weiran Li, Stef Lhermitte, Bert Wouters, Cornelis Slobbe, Max Brils, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 19, 3419–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3419-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Due to recurrent melt and refreezing events in recent decades, the snow conditions over Greenland have changed. To observe this, we use a parameter (leading edge width; LeW) derived from satellite altimetry and analyse its spatial and temporal variations. By comparing the LeW variations with modelled firn parameters, we concluded that the 2012 melt event and the recent and increasingly frequent melt events have a long-lasting impact on the volume scattering of Greenland firn.
Eneko Martin-Martinez, Amanda Frigola, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Daria Kuznetsova, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1343–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of model resolution on different processes in the North Atlantic using three different resolutions of the same climate model. The higher resolutions allow for the explicit simulation of smaller-scale processes. We found differences across resolutions in how denser waters are formed and transported southward, impacting the large-scale circulation of the Atlantic Ocean.
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Verfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated the Antarctic climate from 1985 to 2014. Our model is driven using the ERA-5 reanalysis for one simulation and the EC-Earth global climate model for three others. Most of the simulated trends, such as sea ice extent and precipitation over land, have opposite signs for the two drivers, but agree between the three EC-Earth driven simulations. We conclude that these opposing trends must be due to the different drivers, and that the climate over land is less predictable than over sea.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Ny Riana Randresihaja, Olivier Gourgue, Lauranne Alaerts, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan Lambrechts, Miguel De Le Court, Marilaure Grégoire, and Emmanuel Hanert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas face rising flood threats as storms intensifies with climate change. With an advanced model of the Scheldt Estuary-North Sea, we studied how detailed atmospheric data must be to predict storm surge peaks in estuaries. We found that high-resolution atmospheric data gives the best results, and coarser data with same resolution as current global climate models give poorer results. We show that investing in localized, high-resolution atmospheric data can significantly improve results.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Thomas Arsouze, Mario Acosta, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, Eric Ferrer, Amanda Frigola, Daria Kuznetsova, Eneko Martin-Martinez, Pablo Ortega, and Sergi Palomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-461-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present the high-resolution model version of the EC-Earth global climate model to contribute to HighResMIP. The combined model resolution is about 10–15 km in both the ocean and atmosphere, which makes it one of the finest ever used to complete historical and scenario simulations. This model is compared with two lower-resolution versions, with a 100 km and a 25 km grid. The three models are compared with observations to study the improvements thanks to the increased resolution.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Sara Bacer, Julien Beaumet, Martin Ménégoz, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley atmosphere over the 21st century in order to study the impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pool episodes. We find that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during these episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but that very stable persistent cold-air pool episodes can still form.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Laura J. Dietrich, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Sonja Wahl, Anne-Katrine Faber, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 289–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The contribution of the humidity flux to the surface mass balance in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is uncertain. Here, we evaluate the regional climate model MAR using a multi-annual dataset of eddy covariance measurements and bulk estimates of the humidity flux. The humidity flux largely contributes to the summer surface mass balance (SMB) in the accumulation zone, indicating its potential importance for the annual SMB in a warming climate.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Catherine Ottlé, and Frédérique Cheruy
The Cryosphere, 17, 5095–5130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of topography on snow cover parameterizations using models and observations. Parameterizations without topography-based considerations overestimate snow cover. Incorporating topography reduces snow overestimation by 5–10 % in mountains, in turn reducing cold biases. However, some biases remain, requiring further calibration and more data. Assessing snow cover parameterizations is challenging due to limited and uncertain data in mountainous regions.
Marco Tedesco, Paolo Colosio, Xavier Fettweis, and Guido Cervone
The Cryosphere, 17, 5061–5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a technique to improve the outputs of a model that calculates the gain and loss of Greenland and consequently its contribution to sea level rise. Our technique generates “sharper” images of the maps generated by the model to better understand and quantify where losses occur. This has implications for improving models, understanding what drives the contributions of Greenland to sea level rise, and more.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Damien Maure, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Alison Delhasse, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4645–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the Earth. Studies have already shown that Greenland and the Canadian Arctic are experiencing a record increase in melting rates, while Svalbard has been relatively less impacted. Looking at those regions but also extending the study to Iceland and the Russian Arctic archipelagoes, we see a heterogeneity in the melting-rate response to the Arctic warming, with the Russian archipelagoes experiencing lower melting rates than other regions.
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new supraglacial hydrology model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. This model simulates surface meltwater routing, meltwater drainage, supraglacial lake (SGL) overflow, and formation of lake ice. The model was able to reproduce 80 % of observed lake locations and provides a good match between the observed and modelled temporal evolution of SGLs.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The Alpine region is strongly affected by torrential floods, sometimes leading to severe negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate related risks. In this article we study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run, using a database of reported occurrence of damaging torrential flooding in the Grenoble conurbation since 1851.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, Xavier Fettweis, Tyler Sutterley, Patrick Alexander, David Porter, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 17, 789–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use repeated satellite measurements of the height of the Greenland ice sheet to learn about how three computational models of snowfall, melt, and snow compaction represent actual changes in the ice sheet. We find that the models do a good job of estimating how the parts of the ice sheet near the coast have changed but that two of the models have trouble representing surface melt for the highest part of the ice sheet. This work provides suggestions for how to better model snowmelt.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run. We consider seven atmospheric variables that describe the nature of the air masses involved and the possible triggers of precipitation and we try to isolate the most discriminating variables. The results show that humidity and particularly humidity transport plays the greatest role under westerly flows while instability potential is mostly at play under southerly flows.
Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Xavier Fettweis, Oluwanisola Ibikunle, Carl Leuschen, John Paden, Daniel Gomez-Garcia, and Emily Arnold
The Cryosphere, 17, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Alaskan glaciers' loss of ice mass contributes significantly to ocean surface rise. It is important to know how deeply and how much snow accumulates on these glaciers to comprehend and analyze the glacial mass loss process. We reported the observed seasonal snow depth distribution from our radar data taken in Alaska in 2018 and 2021, developed a method to estimate the annual snow accumulation rate at Mt. Wrangell caldera, and identified transition zones from wet-snow zones to ablation zones.
Guillian Van Achter, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
The Cryosphere, 16, 4745–4761, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the last decades (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under warmer climate conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the sea ice is strongly reduced, and the ocean circulation close to the coast is accelerated. Our research highlights the importance of including representations of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Sébastien Doutreloup, Xavier Fettweis, Ramin Rahif, Essam Elnagar, Mohsen S. Pourkiaei, Deepak Amaripadath, and Shady Attia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3039–3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This data set provides historical (1980–2014) and future (2015–2100) weather data for 12 cities in Belgium. This data set is intended for architects or building or energy designers. In particular, it makes available to all users hourly open-access weather data according to certain standards to recreate a Typical and an Extreme Meteorological Year. In addition, it provides hourly data on heatwaves from 1980 to 2100. Weather data were produced from the outputs of the MAR model simulations.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2797–2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable prediction of floods depends on the quality of the input data such as precipitation. However, estimation of precipitation from the local measurements is known to be difficult, especially for extremes. Regionalization improves the estimates by increasing the quantity of data available for estimation. Here, we compare three regionalization methods based on their robustness and reliability. We apply the comparison to a dense network of daily stations within and outside Switzerland.
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past, 18, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines whether the 1600 Huaynaputina volcano eruption triggered persistent cooling in the North Atlantic. It compares previous paleoclimate simulations with new climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical documents and finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not support, an eruption trigger for persistent cooling. The study also analyzes societal impacts of climatic change in ca. 1600 and the use of historical observations in model–data comparison.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Sara Bacer, Fatima Jomaa, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, Martin Ménégoz, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via the weather type decomposition methodology. We find that blocking frequency, duration, and size are mostly stationary over the 21st century. Additionally, we compare the blocking size results with the size of the blocking events identified via a different approach using a blocking index.
Antoine Blanc, Juliette Blanchet, and Jean-Dominique Creutin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation variability and extremes in the northern French Alps are governed by the atmospheric circulation over western Europe. In this work, we study the past evolution of western Europe large-scale circulation using atmospheric descriptors. We show some discrepancies in the trends obtained from different reanalyses before 1950. After 1950, we find trends in Mediterranean circulations that appear to be linked with trends in seasonal and extreme precipitation in the northern French Alps.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Louis-Philippe Caron, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Oliver Gutjahr, Marie-Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Malcolm J. Roberts, Retish Senan, Laurent Terray, Etienne Tourigny, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 269–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models do not fully reproduce observations: they show differences (biases) in regional temperature, precipitation, or cloud cover. Reducing model biases is important to increase our confidence in their ability to reproduce present and future climate changes. Model realism is set by its resolution: the finer it is, the more physical processes and interactions it can resolve. We here show that increasing resolution of up to ~ 25 km can help reduce model biases but not remove them entirely.
Cited articles
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019.
Amory, C., Kittel, C., Le Toumelin, L., Agosta, C., Delhasse, A., Favier, V., and Fettweis, X.: Performance of MAR (v3.11) in simulating the drifting-snow climate and surface mass balance of Adélie Land, East Antarctica, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3487–3510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, 2021.
Bacer, S., Beaumet, J., Ménégoz, M., Gallée, H., Le Bouëdec, E., and Staquet, C.: Impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pools in an alpine valley during the 21st century, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, 2024.
Collao Barrios, G.: San Rafael Glacier and Northern Patagonia Icefield surface mass balance estimation from different approaches, phdthesis, Université Grenoble Alpes, https://doi.org/10.70675/947359c3z9ec2z4043z865dzcf4c91d7bfc5, 2018.
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020.
Beaumet, J., Ménégoz, M., Morin, S., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Six, D., Vincent, C., Wilhelm, B., and Anquetin, S.: Twentieth century temperature and snow cover changes in the French Alps, Reg. Environ. Change, 21, 114, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01830-x, 2021.
Beaumet, J., Menegoz, M., Gallée, H., and Chamarro, E. M.: MAR-EC-Earth3 HIST (1961–2014) and SSP245 European Alps (2015–2100), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5838345, 2022a.
Beaumet, J., Menegoz, M., and Gallée, H.: MAR-MPI-ESM1-2-HR SSP585 European Alps (2015–2100), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5834376, 2022b.
Beaumet, J., Menegoz, M., and Gallée, H.: MAR-MPI-ESM1-2-HR HIST (1961–2014) and SSP245 European Alps (2015–2100), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5834221, 2022c.
Bozzo, A., Benedetti, A., Flemming, J., Kipling, Z., and Rémy, S.: An aerosol climatology for global models based on the tropospheric aerosol scheme in the Integrated Forecasting System of ECMWF, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1007–1034, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1007-2020, 2020.
Brun, E., David, P., Sudul, M., and Brunot, G.: A numerical model to simulate snow-cover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol., 38, 13–22, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000009552, 1992.
Byrne, M. P., Boos, W. R., and Hu, S.: Elevation-dependent warming: observations, models, and energetic mechanisms, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 763–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-763-2024, 2024.
Castellanos, I., Ménégoz, M., and Gallée, H.: MARv3.14-MPI-ESM1-2-HR HIST European Alps (1961–2014), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17569252, 2025a.
Castellanos, I., Ménégoz, M., and Gallée, H.: MARv3.14-MPI-ESM1-2-HR SSP585 European Alps (2015–2100), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17534365, 2025b.
Castellanos, I.: Ian-CD/PhD: EDW Article, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20274037, 2026.
Chagnaud, G., Gallée, H., Lebel, T., Panthou, G., and Vischel, T.: A Boundary Forcing Sensitivity Analysis of the West African Monsoon Simulated by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional, Atmosphere, 11, 191, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020191, 2020.
Chimborazo, O., Minder, J. R., and Vuille, M.: Observations and Simulated Mechanisms of Elevation-Dependent Warming over the Tropical Andes, J. Clim., 35, 1021–1044, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0379.1, 2022.
Colombo, N., Guyennon, N., Valt, M., Salerno, F., Godone, D., Cianfarra, P., Freppaz, M., Maugeri, M., Manara, V., Acquaotta, F., Petrangeli, A. B., and Romano, E.: Unprecedented snow-drought conditions in the Italian Alps during the early 2020s, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 074014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acdb88, 2023.
Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 9391–9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.
Delhasse, A., Kittel, C., Amory, C., Hofer, S., van As, D., S. Fausto, R., and Fettweis, X.: Brief communication: Evaluation of the near-surface climate in ERA5 over the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 957–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, 2020.
Derksen, C., Essery, R., Gustafsson, D., Menegoz, M., Krinner, G., and de Rosnay, P.: Snow CCI Climate Assessment Report, ESA Contract No.: 4000124098/18/I-NB, Deliverable No.: D5.1, 2025.
Dimri, A. P., Choudhary, A., and Kumar, D.: Elevation Dependent Warming over Indian Himalayan Region, Springer, Cham., 141–156, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29684-1_9, 2020.
Dimri, A. P., Palazzi, E., and Daloz, A. S.: Elevation dependent precipitation and temperature changes over Indian Himalayan region, Clim. Dyn., 59, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06113-z, 2022.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Fettweis, X., Box, J. E., Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Lang, C., van As, D., Machguth, H., and Gallée, H.: Reconstructions of the 1900–2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model, The Cryosphere, 11, 1015–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, 2017.
Fettweis, X., B, A., P.m, D., Ghilain, N., P, P., and C, W.: Évolution actuelle (1960-2021) de l'enneigement dans les Vosges à l'aide du modèle régional du climat MAR, Bulletin de la Société Géographique de Liège, 80, https://doi.org/10.25518/0770-7576.7049, 2023.
Gallée, H. and Schayes, G.: Development of a Three-Dimensional Meso-γ Primitive Equation Model: Katabatic Winds Simulation in the Area of Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 671–685, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0671:DOATDM>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Gallée, H., Peyaud, V., and Goodwin, I.: Simulation of the net snow accumulation along the Wilkes Land transect, Antarctica, with a regional climate model, Ann. Glaciol., 41, 17–22, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756405781813230, 2005.
Glaude, Q., Noel, B., Olesen, M., Van den Broeke, M., van de Berg, W. J., Mottram, R., Hansen, N., Delhasse, A., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Goelzer, H., and Fettweis, X.: A Factor Two Difference in 21st-Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance Projections From Three Regional Climate Models Under a Strong Warming Scenario (SSP5-8.5), Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL111902, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111902, 2024.
Gobiet, A., Kotlarski, S., Beniston, M., Heinrich, G., Rajczak, J., and Stoffel, M.: 21st century climate change in the European Alps – A review, Sci. Total Environ., 493, 1138–1151, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050, 2014.
Grailet, J.-F.: Inclusion of a new radiative transfer scheme in the MAR model and validation on Belgium, BSGLg, https://doi.org/10.25518/0770-7576.7031, 2023.
Hogan, R. J. and Bozzo, A.: A Flexible and Efficient Radiation Scheme for the ECMWF Model, J. Adv. Model. Ea. Syst., 10, 1990–2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001364, 2018.
Isotta, F. A., Frei, C., Weilguni, V., Perčec Tadić, M., Lassègues, P., Rudolf, B., Pavan, V., Cacciamani, C., Antolini, G., Ratto, S. M., Munari, M., Micheletti, S., Bonati, V., Lussana, C., Ronchi, C., Panettieri, E., Marigo, G., and Vertačnik, G.: The climate of daily precipitation in the Alps: development and analysis of a high-resolution grid dataset from pan-Alpine rain-gauge data, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1657–1675, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3794, 2014.
Keil, P., Schmidt, H., Stevens, B., Byrne, M. P., Segura, H., and Putrasahan, D.: Tropical tropospheric warming pattern explained by shifts in convective heating in the Matsuno–Gill model, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 149, 2678–2695, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4526, 2023.
Kotlarski, S., Bosshard, T., Lüthi, D., Pall, P., and Schär, C.: Elevation gradients of European climate change in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, Climatic Change, 112, 189–215, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0195-5, 2012.
Kotlarski, S., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: The elevation dependency of 21st century European climate change: an RCM ensemble perspective, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 3902–3920, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4254, 2015.
Kotlarski, S., Szabó, P., Herrera, S., Räty, O., Keuler, K., Soares, P. M., Cardoso, R. M., Bosshard, T., Pagé, C., Boberg, F., Gutiérrez, J. M., Isotta, F. A., Jaczewski, A., Kreienkamp, F., Liniger, M. A., Lussana, C., and Pianko-Kluczyńska, K.: Observational uncertainty and regional climate model evaluation: A pan-European perspective, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 3730–3749, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5249, 2019.
Kotlarski, S., Gobiet, A., Morin, S., Olefs, M., Rajczak, J., and Samacoïts, R.: 21st Century alpine climate change, Clim. Dyn., 60, 65–86, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06303-3, 2023.
Kouassi, A., Assamoi, P., Bigot, S., Diawara, A., Schayes, G., Yoroba, F., and Kouassi, B.: Étude du climat Ouest-Africain à l'aide du modèle atmosphérique régional M.A.R., Climatologie, 7, 39–55, https://doi.org/10.4267/climatologie.445, 2010.
Kuhn, M. and Olefs, M.: Elevation-Dependent Climate Change in the European Alps, in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, New York, NY, Oxford Academic, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.762, 2020.
Lalande, M., Ménégoz, M., Krinner, G., Ottlé, C., and Cheruy, F.: Improving climate model skill over High Mountain Asia by adapting snow cover parameterization to complex-topography areas, The Cryosphere, 17, 5095–5130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5095-2023, 2023.
Li, B., Chen, Y., and Shi, X.: Does elevation dependent warming exist in high mountain Asia?, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 024012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7f, 2020.
Lüthi, S., Ban, N., Kotlarski, S., Steger, C. R., Jonas, T., and Schär, C.: Projections of Alpine Snow-Cover in a High-Resolution Climate Simulation, Atmosphere, 10, 463, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080463, 2019.
Matiu, M., Petitta, M., Notarnicola, C., and Zebisch, M.: Evaluating Snow in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models with Observations for the European Alps: Biases and Their Relationship to Orography, Temperature, and Precipitation Mismatches, Atmosphere, 11, 46, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010046, 2020.
Matiu, M., Napoli, A., Kotlarski, S., Zardi, D., Bellin, A., and Majone, B.: Elevation-dependent biases of raw and bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX regional climate models in the European Alps, Clim. Dyn., 62, 9013–9030, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07376-y, 2024.
Ménégoz, M., Gallée, H., and Jacobi, H. W.: Precipitation and snow cover in the Himalaya: from reanalysis to regional climate simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3921–3936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3921-2013, 2013.
Ménégoz, M., Valla, E., Jourdain, N. C., Blanchet, J., Beaumet, J., Wilhelm, B., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Morin, S., and Anquetin, S.: Contrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020.
Minder, J. R., Letcher, T. W., and Liu, C.: The Character and Causes of Elevation-Dependent Warming in High-Resolution Simulations of Rocky Mountain Climate Change, J. Clim., 31, 2093–2113, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0321.1, 2018.
Morcrette, J.-J.: Radiation and cloud radiative properties in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts forecasting system, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 96, 9121–9132, https://doi.org/10.1029/89JD01597, 1991.
Morcrette, J.-J.: The Surface Downward Longwave Radiation in the ECMWF Forecast System, J. Clim., 15, 1875–1892, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1875:TSDLRI>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Nabat, P., Somot, S., Boé, J., Corre, L., Katragkou, E., Li, S., Mallet, M., van Meijgaard, E., Pavlidis, V., Pietikäinen, J.-P., Sørland, S., and Solmon, F.: Multi-Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 52, e2024GL112474, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112474, 2025.
Naegeli, K., Neuhaus, C., Salberg, A.-B., Schwaizer, G., Weber, H., Wiesmann, A., Wunderle, S., and Nagler, T.: ESA Snow Climate Change Initiative (Snow_cci): Daily global Snow Cover Fraction – snow on ground (SCFG) from AVHRR (1982–2018), version 2.0, NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, https://doi.org/10.5285/3F034F4A08854EB59D58E1FA92D207B6, 2022.
Napoli, A., Desbiolles, F., Parodi, A., and Pasquero, C.: Aerosol indirect effects in complex-orography areas: a numerical study over the Great Alpine Region, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3901–3909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3901-2022, 2022.
Napoli, A., Parodi, A., von Hardenberg, J., and Pasquero, C.: Altitudinal dependence of projected changes in occurrence of extreme events in the Great Alpine Region, Int. J. Climatol., 43, 5813–5829, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8222, 2023.
Ohmura, A.: Enhanced temperature variability in high-altitude climate change, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 110, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0687-x, 2012.
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016.
Palazzi, E., Filippi, L., and von Hardenberg, J.: Insights into elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas from CMIP5 model simulations, Clim. Dyn., 48, 3991–4008, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3316-z, 2017.
Palazzi, E., Mortarini, L., Terzago, S., and von Hardenberg, J.: Elevation-dependent warming in global climate model simulations at high spatial resolution, Clim. Dyn., 52, 2685–2702, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4287-z, 2019.
Pepin, N., Bradley, R. S., Diaz, H. F., Baraer, M., Caceres, E. B., Forsythe, N., Fowler, H., Greenwood, G., Hashmi, M. Z., Liu, X. D., Miller, J. R., Ning, L., Ohmura, A., Palazzi, E., Rangwala, I., Schöner, W., Severskiy, I., Shahgedanova, M., Wang, M. B., Williamson, S. N., Yang, D. Q., and Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group: Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 424–430, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563, 2015.
Pepin, N., Apple, M., Knowles, J., Terzago, S., Arnone, E., Hänchen, L., Napoli, A., Potter, E., Steiner, J., Williamson, S. N., Ahrens, B., Dhar, T., Dimri, A. P., Palazzi, E., Rameshan, A., Salzmann, N., Shahgedanova, M., Vidal Jr, J. de D., and Zardi, D.: Elevation-dependent climate change in mountain environments, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 6, 772–788, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00740-4, 2025.
Pepin, N. C. and Seidel, D. J.: A global comparison of surface and free-air temperatures at high elevations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005047, 2005.
Pepin, N. C., Arnone, E., Gobiet, A., Haslinger, K., Kotlarski, S., Notarnicola, C., Palazzi, E., Seibert, P., Serafin, S., Schöner, W., Terzago, S., Thornton, J. M., Vuille, M., and Adler, C.: Climate Changes and Their Elevational Patterns in the Mountains of the World, Rev. Geophys., 60, e2020RG000730, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000730, 2022.
Philipona, R.: Greenhouse warming and solar brightening in and around the Alps, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1530–1537, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3531, 2013.
Poli, P., Hersbach, H., Dee, D. P., Berrisford, P., Simmons, A. J., Vitart, F., Laloyaux, P., Tan, D. G. H., Peubey, C., Thépaut, J.-N., Trémolet, Y., Hólm, E. V., Bonavita, M., Isaksen, L., and Fisher, M.: ERA-20C: An Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century, J. Clim., 29, 4083–4097, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0556.1, 2016.
Prein, A. F. and Gobiet, A.: Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 305–327, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4706, 2017.
Rahbek, C., Borregaard, M. K., Colwell, R. K., Dalsgaard, B., Holt, B. G., Morueta-Holme, N., Nogues-Bravo, D., Whittaker, R. J., and Fjeldså, J.: Humboldt's enigma: What causes global patterns of mountain biodiversity?, Science, 365, 1108–1113, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax0149, 2019.
Rangwala, I., Miller, J. R., Russell, G. L., and Xu, M.: Using a global climate model to evaluate the influences of water vapor, snow cover and atmospheric aerosol on warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the twenty-first century, Clim. Dyn., 34, 859–872, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0564-1, 2010.
Romps, D. M.: Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 123–138, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3542.1, 2011.
Rottler, E., Kormann, C., Francke, T., and Bronstert, A.: Elevation-dependent warming in the Swiss Alps 1981–2017: Features, forcings and feedbacks, I. J. Climatol., 39, 2556–2568, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5970, 2019.
Ruckstuhl, C., Philipona, R., Morland, J., and Ohmura, A.: Observed relationship between surface specific humidity, integrated water vapor, and longwave downward radiation at different altitudes, J. Geophys. Res., 112, 2006JD007850, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007850, 2007.
Sandu, I., van Niekerk, A., Shepherd, T. G., Vosper, S. B., Zadra, A., Bacmeister, J., Beljaars, A., Brown, A. R., Dörnbrack, A., McFarlane, N., Pithan, F., and Svensson, G.: Impacts of orography on large-scale atmospheric circulation, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 2, 10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0065-9, 2019.
Sobolowski, S., Somot, S., Fernandez, J., Evin, G., Brands, S., Maraun, D., Kotlarski, S., Jury, M., Benestad, R. E., Teichmann, C., Christensen, O. B., Bülow, K., Buonomo, E., Katragkou, E., Steger, C., Sørland, S., Nikulin, G., McSweeney, C., Dobler, A., Palmer, T., Wilcke, R., Boé, J., Brunner, L., Ribes, A., Qasmi, S., Nabat, P., Sevault, F., and Oudar, T.: GCM Selection and Ensemble Design: Best Practices and Recommendations from the EURO-CORDEX Community, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 106, E1834–E1850, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0189.1, 2025.
Terzago, S., von Hardenberg, J., Palazzi, E., and Provenzale, A.: Snow water equivalent in the Alps as seen by gridded data sets, CMIP5 and CORDEX climate models, The Cryosphere, 11, 1625–1645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1625-2017, 2017.
Thornton, J. M., Palazzi, E., Pepin, N. C., Cristofanelli, P., Essery, R., Kotlarski, S., Giuliani, G., Guigoz, Y., Kulonen, A., Pritchard, D., Li, X., Fowler, H. J., Randin, C. F., Shahgedanova, M., Steinbacher, M., Zebisch, M., and Adler, C.: Toward a definition of Essential Mountain Climate Variables, One Earth, 4, 805–827, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.05.005, 2021.
Toledo, O., Palazzi, E., Cely Toro, I. M., and Mortarini, L.: Comparison of elevation-dependent warming and its drivers in the tropical and subtropical Andes, Clim. Dyn., 58, 3057–3074, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06081-4, 2022.
Tudoroiu, M., Eccel, E., Gioli, B., Gianelle, D., Schume, H., Genesio, L., and Miglietta, F.: Negative elevation-dependent warming trend in the Eastern Alps, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 044021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044021, 2016.
Uppala, S. M., KÅllberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., Berg, L. V. D., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. a. E. M., Jenne, R., Mcnally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176, 2005.
Vallis, G. K., Zurita-Gotor, P., Cairns, C., and Kidston, J.: Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1479–1501, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2456, 2015.
Viviroli, D., Kummu, M., Meybeck, M., Kallio, M., and Wada, Y.: Increasing dependence of lowland populations on mountain water resources, Nat. Sustain., 3, 917–928, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0559-9, 2020.
Warscher, M., Wagner, S., Marke, T., Laux, P., Smiatek, G., Strasser, U., and Kunstmann, H.: A 5 km Resolution Regional Climate Simulation for Central Europe: Performance in High Mountain Areas and Seasonal, Regional and Elevation-Dependent Variations, Atmosphere, 10, 682, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110682, 2019.
Wei, Y., Wang, Y., Lu, Z., Huang, Y., and Huang, F.: Upper Troposphere Warming Amplification over the Tibetan Plateau, J. Clim., 38, 5335–5348, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0567.1, 2025.
Short summary
The Alps host glaciers, distinct ecosystems, socio-economic interests and water resources that are being impacted by climate change. In this study, we aim at understanding how warming occurs in the Alps in projected scenarios and what physical processes drive it. We find under these scenarios that elevations around the snowline will warm faster than elsewhere, because snow retreats to higher elevations. Indeed, snow slows down warming due to its high albedo and the energy consumed to melt it.
The Alps host glaciers, distinct ecosystems, socio-economic interests and water resources that...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint