Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Research article
 | 
17 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 17 Mar 2026

Snowball Earth transitions from Last Glacial Maximum conditions provide an independent upper limit on Earth's climate sensitivity

Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Johannes Hörner, and Thorsten Mauritsen

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Latest update: 19 May 2026
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Short summary
Geological evidence indicate persistent tropical sea-ice cover in the deep past, often called Snowball Earth. Using a climate model, we show here that clouds substantially cool down the tropics and facilitate the advance of sea-ice into lower latitudes. We identify a critical threshold temperature close to 0 °C from where cooling down the Earth is accelerated. This value can be used as a constraint on Earth's sensitivity to CO2, as recent cold paleoclimates never entered Snowball Earth.
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