Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1025-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1025-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Simulating the impact of an AMOC weakening on the Antarctic Ice Sheet using a coupled climate and ice-sheet model
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Moritz Kreuzer
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Willem Huiskamp
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Stefan Petri
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Georg Feulner
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Didier Swingedouw, Laura Jackson, Aixue Hu, Anastasia Romanou, Nicole C. Laureanti, Wilbert Weijer, Sina Loriani, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Lucas Almeida, Alessio Bellucci, Reyk Börner, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Donovan P. Dennis, Marion Devilliers, Sybren Drijfhout, Jonathan Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Guillaume Gastineau, Heiko Goelzer, Chuncheng Guo, Urs Hofmann, Anna Höse, Colin Jones, Torben Koenigk, Ann Kristin Klose, Valerio Lembo, Jose Licon-Salaiz, Ken Mankoff, Virna Meccia, Irina Melnikova, Oliver Mehling, Laurie Menviel, Juliette Mignot, Jon I. Robson, Gavin A. Schmidt, Robin Smith, Yuchen Sun, Irene Trombini, Matteo Willeit, Richard Wood, Fanghua Wu, Lin Zhaohui, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a plan for climate model experiments to better understand how changes in freshwater in the North Atlantic affect major ocean currents. We designed coordinated simulations to test their response to warming, added freshwater, and possible recovery after weakening. Comparing results across models and past climate evidence helps improve confidence in projections and assess risks of large ocean circulation changes.
Niki Lohmann, David Strahl, Annika Högner, Willem Huiskamp, Matthias Boehm, and Nico Wunderling
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 313–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Causal inference methods could be used to study the interaction of climate tipping elements, which may degrade abruptly due to climate change. We compare three of these methods to determine their reliability and apply two of them to the Arctic summer sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our results imply that a weaker AMOC would stabilize Arctic summer sea ice, and that a loss of Arctic summer sea ice would likely stabilize the AMOC in the short term.
Sullyandro Oliveira Guimarães, Masoud Rostami, and Stefan Petri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-512, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the intermediate-complexity Aeolus 2.0 moist-convective thermal rotating shallow-water model to investigate subtropical and midlatitude heatwaves, incorporating background winds, baroclinicity, topography, and Coriolis effects. By explicitly linking moist convection, wave dynamics, and large-scale circulation, the study bridges theoretical models and comprehensive climate simulations, improving physical understanding of heatwave persistence and amplification in a warming climate.
Sasha Roewer, Lukas Fiedler, Marius Årthun, Willem Huiskamp, and Stefan Rahmstorf
Ocean Sci., 22, 1195–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1195-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1195-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening in response to global warming, while the Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation (NOC) is projected to strengthen. We suggest a feedback mechanism in which a weakened AMOC leads to reduced salt transport into the North Atlantic, decreasing the density in that region and potentially strengthening the NOC.
Didier Swingedouw, Laura Jackson, Aixue Hu, Anastasia Romanou, Nicole C. Laureanti, Wilbert Weijer, Sina Loriani, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Lucas Almeida, Alessio Bellucci, Reyk Börner, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Donovan P. Dennis, Marion Devilliers, Sybren Drijfhout, Jonathan Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Guillaume Gastineau, Heiko Goelzer, Chuncheng Guo, Urs Hofmann, Anna Höse, Colin Jones, Torben Koenigk, Ann Kristin Klose, Valerio Lembo, Jose Licon-Salaiz, Ken Mankoff, Virna Meccia, Irina Melnikova, Oliver Mehling, Laurie Menviel, Juliette Mignot, Jon I. Robson, Gavin A. Schmidt, Robin Smith, Yuchen Sun, Irene Trombini, Matteo Willeit, Richard Wood, Fanghua Wu, Lin Zhaohui, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a plan for climate model experiments to better understand how changes in freshwater in the North Atlantic affect major ocean currents. We designed coordinated simulations to test their response to warming, added freshwater, and possible recovery after weakening. Comparing results across models and past climate evidence helps improve confidence in projections and assess risks of large ocean circulation changes.
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 2263–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2263-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of access depths on ice-shelf melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that could channel warm water masses to the base of the ice sheet. We identify oceanic gateways in several Antarctic regions and estimate an upper bound of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 1181–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the melting of floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that compared to climatic changes, the effect of relative sea level on ice-shelf melting is small.
Markus Drüke, Wolfgang Lucht, Werner von Bloh, Stefan Petri, Boris Sakschewski, Arne Tobian, Sina Loriani, Sibyll Schaphoff, Georg Feulner, and Kirsten Thonicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 467–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The planetary boundary framework characterizes major risks of destabilization of the Earth system. We use the comprehensive Earth system model POEM to study the impact of the interacting boundaries for climate change and land system change. Our study shows the importance of long-term effects on carbon dynamics and climate, as well as the need to investigate both boundaries simultaneously and to generally keep both boundaries within acceptable ranges to avoid a catastrophic scenario for humanity.
Julius Eberhard, Oliver E. Bevan, Georg Feulner, Stefan Petri, Jeroen van Hunen, and James U. L. Baldini
Clim. Past, 19, 2203–2235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During at least two phases in its past, Earth was more or less covered in ice. These “snowball Earth” events probably started suddenly upon undercutting a certain threshold in the carbon-dioxide concentration. This threshold can vary considerably under different conditions. In our study, we find the thresholds for different distributions of continents, geometries of Earth’s orbit, and volcanic eruptions. The results show that the threshold might have varied by up to 46 %.
Georg Feulner, Mona Bukenberger, and Stefan Petri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One limit of planetary habitability is defined by the threshold of global glaciation. If Earth cools, growing ice cover makes it brighter, leading to further cooling, since more sunlight is reflected, eventually leading to global ice cover (Snowball Earth). We study how much carbon dioxide is needed to prevent global glaciation in Earth's history given the slow increase in the Sun's brightness. We find an unexpected change in the characteristics of climate states close to the Snowball limit.
Willem Huiskamp and Shayne McGregor
Clim. Past, 17, 1819–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1819-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the reliability of paleo-reconstructions of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) using climate model data. We find that reconstructions are able to capture ~ 60 % of the SAM variability at best, with poorer reconstructions managing only 35 %. Reconstructions perform best when they use more proxies sourced from the entire Southern Hemisphere land mass. Future reconstructions should endeavour to address both sampling and proxy–SAM correlation stability uncertainties.
Cited articles
Aguiar, W., Morrison, A. K., Huneke, W. G. C., Hutchinson, D. K., Spence, P., Hogg, A. M., Colombo, P., and Stewart, K. D.: Antarctic Dense Water Formation Sensitivity to Ocean Surface Cell Thickness, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 17, e2024MS004913, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004913, 2025. a
Albrecht, T., Martin, M., Haseloff, M., Winkelmann, R., and Levermann, A.: Parameterization for subgrid-scale motion of ice-shelf calving fronts, The Cryosphere, 5, 35–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-35-2011, 2011. a
Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., and Levermann, A.: Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) – Part 1: Boundary conditions and climatic forcing, The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020. a
Aschwanden, A., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Blatter, H.: An enthalpy formulation for glaciers and ice sheets, J. Glaciol., 58, 441–457, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J088, 2012. a
Baker, J. A., Bell, M. J., Jackson, L. C., Vallis, G. K., Watson, A. J., and Wood, R. A.: Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature, 638, 987–994, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08544-0, 2025. a
Barbante, C., Barnola, J.-M., Becagli, S., Beer, J., Bigler, M., Boutron, C., Blunier, T., Castellano, E., Cattani, O., Chappellaz, J., Dahl-Jensen, D., Debret, M., Delmonte, B., Dick, D., Falourd, S., Faria, S., Federer, U., Fischer, H., Freitag, J., Frenzel, A., Fritzsche, D., Fundel, F., Gabrielli, P., Gaspari, V., Gersonde, R., Graf, W., Grigoriev, D., Hamann, I., Hansson, M., Hoffmann, G., Hutterli, M. A., Huybrechts, P., Isaksson, E., Johnsen, S., Jouzel, J., Kaczmarska, M., Karlin, T., Kaufmann, P., Kipfstuhl, S., Kohno, M., Lambert, F., Lambrecht, A., Lambrecht, A., Landais, A., Lawer, G., Leuenberger, M., Littot, G., Loulergue, L., Lüthi, D., Maggi, V., Marino, F., Masson-Delmotte, V., Meyer, H., Miller, H., Mulvaney, R., Narcisi, B., Oerlemans, J., Oerter, H., Parrenin, F., Petit, J.-R., Raisbeck, G., Raynaud, D., Röthlisberger, R., Ruth, U., Rybak, O., Severi, M., Schmitt, J., Schwander, J., Siegenthaler, U., Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L., Spahni, R., Steffensen, J. P., Stenni, B., Stocker, T. F., Tison, J.-L., Traversi, R., Udisti, R., Valero-Delgado, F., van den Broeke, M. R., van de Wal, R. S. W., Wagenbach, D., Wegner, A., Weiler, K., Wilhelms, F., Winther, J.-G., Wolff, E., and Members, E. C.: One-to-one coupling of glacial climate variability in Greenland and Antarctica, Nature, 444, 195–198, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05301, 2006. a, b, c, d
Bennetts, L. G., Shakespeare, C. J., Vreugdenhil, C. A., Foppert, A., Gayen, B., Meyer, A., Morrison, A. K., Padman, L., Phillips, H. E., Stevens, C. L., Toffoli, A., Constantinou, N. C., Cusack, J. M., Cyriac, A., Doddridge, E. W., England, M. H., Evans, D. G., Heil, P., Hogg, A. M., Holmes, R. M., Huneke, W. G. C., Jones, N. L., Keating, S. R., Kiss, A. E., Kraitzman, N., Malyarenko, A., McConnochie, C. D., Meucci, A., Montiel, F., Neme, J., Nikurashin, M., Patel, R. S., Peng, J.-P., Rayson, M., Rosevear, M. G., Sohail, T., Spence, P., and Stanley, G. J.: Closing the Loops on Southern Ocean Dynamics: From the Circumpolar Current to Ice Shelves and From Bottom Mixing to Surface Waves, Rev. Geophys., 62, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022RG000781, 2024. a
Berdahl, M., Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R. A., Urban, N. M., Miller, I., Morgan, H., and Steig, E. J.: Antarctic climate response in Last Interglacial simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), Clim. Past, 20, 2349–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, 2024. a, b
Broecker, W. S.: Paleocean circulation during the Last Deglaciation: A bipolar seesaw?, Paleoceanography, 13, 119–121, https://doi.org/10.1029/97PA03707, 1998. a, b
Bronselaer, B., Winton, M., Griffies, S. M., Hurlin, W. J., Rodgers, K. B., Sergienko, O. V., Stouffer, R. J., and Russell, J. L.: Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater, Nature, 564, 53–58, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0712-z, 2018. a
Bueler, E. and Brown, J.: Shallow shelf approximation as a “sliding law” in a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001179, 2009. a
Bueler, E., Brown, J., and Lingle, C.: Exact solutions to the thermomechanically coupled shallow-ice approximation: effective tools for verification, J. Glaciol., 53, 499–516, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214307783258396, 2007. a
Burgard, C., Jourdain, N. C., Reese, R., Jenkins, A., and Mathiot, P.: An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022. a
Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., and Saba, V.: Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature, 556, 191–196, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5, 2018. a
Caesar, L., McCarthy, G. D., Thornalley, D. J. R., Cahill, N., and Rahmstorf, S.: Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium, Nat. Geosci., 14, 118–120, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00699-z, 2021. a
Cheng, W., Bitz, C. M., and Chiang, J. C. H.: Adjustment of the Global Climate to an Abrupt Slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, 295–313, American Geophysical Union (AGU), https://doi.org/10.1029/173GM19, 2007. a
Clark, P. U., Pisias, N. G., Stocker, T. F., and Weaver, A. J.: The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change, Nature, 415, 863–869, https://doi.org/10.1038/415863a, 2002. a
Couldrey, M. P., Gregory, J. M., Dong, X., Garuba, O., Haak, H., Hu, A., Hurlin, W. J., Jin, J., Jungclaus, J., Köhl, A., Liu, H., Ojha, S., Saenko, O. A., Savita, A., Suzuki, T., Yu, Z., and Zanna, L.: Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change, Clim. Dynam., 60, 2003–2039, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06386-y, 2023. a
Cuffey, K. and Paterson, W.: The Physics of Glaciers, Elsevier Science, eBook ISBN: 9780080919126, 2010. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a, b
Delworth, T. L., Broccoli, A. J., Rosati, A., Stouffer, R. J., Balaji, V., Beesley, J. A., Cooke, W. F., Dixon, K. W., Dunne, J., Dunne, K. A., Durachta, J. W., Findell, K. L., Ginoux, P., Gnanadesikan, A., Gordon, C. T., Griffies, S. M., Gudgel, R., Harrison, M. J., Held, I. M., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L. W., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Kushner, P. J., Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H.-C., Lin, S.-J., Lu, J., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Ramaswamy, V., Russell, J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Spelman, M. J., Stern, W. F., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, F., and Zhang, R.: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics, J. Climate, 19, 643–674, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3629.1, 2006. a, b
den Toom, M., Dijkstra, H. A., Weijer, W., Hecht, M. W., Maltrud, M. E., and van Sebille, E.: Response of a Strongly Eddying Global Ocean to North Atlantic Freshwater Perturbations, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44, 464–481, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-12-0155.1, 2014. a
Diamond, R., Sime, L. C., Schroeder, D., Jackson, L. C., Holland, P. R., de Asenjo, E. A., Bellomo, K., Danabasoglu, G., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Montoya, M., Meccia, V. L., Saenko, O. A., and Swingedouw, D.: A Weakened AMOC Could Cause Southern Ocean Temperature and Sea-Ice Change on Multidecadal Timescales, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 130, e2024JC022027, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022027, 2025. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Dima, M. and Lohmann, G.: Evidence for Two Distinct Modes of Large-Scale Ocean Circulation Changes over the Last Century, J. Climate, 23, 5–16, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2867.1, 2010. a
Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S.: Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nat. Commun., 14, 4254, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w, 2023. a
Du, J., Haley, B. A., and Mix, A. C.: Evolution of the Global Overturning Circulation since the Last Glacial Maximum based on marine authigenic neodymium isotopes, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 241, 106396, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106396, 2020. a
Feulner, G., Rahmstorf, S., Levermann, A., and Volkwardt, S.: On the Origin of the Surface Air Temperature Difference between the Hemispheres in Earth's Present-Day Climate, J. Climate, 26, 7136–7150, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00636.1, 2013. a
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S., Edwards, T., Golledge, N., Hemer, M., Kopp, R., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, 1211–1362, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021. a
Frajka-Williams, E., Moat, B., Smeed, D., Rayner, D., Johns, W., Baringer, M., Volkov, D., and Collins, J.: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation observed by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array-Western Boundary Time Series) array at 26 N from 2004 to 2020 (v2020.1), https://doi.org/10.5285/cc1e34b3-3385-662b-e053-6c86abc03444, 2021. a
Galbraith, E. D. and de Lavergne, C.: Response of a comprehensive climate model to a broad range of external forcings: relevance for deep ocean ventilation and the development of late Cenozoic ice ages, Clim. Dynam., 52, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4157-8, 2019. a
Galbraith, E. D., Kwon, E. Y., Gnanadesikan, A., Rodgers, K. B., Griffies, S. M., Bianchi, D., Sarmiento, J. L., Dunne, J. P., Simeon, J., Slater, R. D., Wittenberg, A. T., and Held, I. M.: Climate Variability and Radiocarbon in the CM2Mc Earth System Model, J. Climate, 24, 4230–4254, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3919.1, 2011. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Gent, P. and McWilliams, J. C.: Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 150–155, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2, 1990. a
Gierz, P., Lohmann, G., and Wei, W.: Response of Atlantic overturning to future warming in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6811–6818, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065276, 2015. a
Gilbert, E. and Kittel, C.: Surface Melt and Runoff on Antarctic Ice Shelves at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C of Future Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091733, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091733, 2021. a
Golledge, N. R., Keller, E. D., Gomez, N., Naughten, K. A., Bernales, J., Trusel, L. D., and Edwards, T. L.: Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt, Nature, 566, 65–72, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9, 2019. a, b
Griffies, S. M.: Elements of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM) – 2012 Release with updates, GFDL Ocean Group Technical Report 7, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, https://mom-ocean.github.io/assets/pdfs/MOM5_manual.pdf (last access: 17 July 2026), 2014. a
Heuzé, C.: Antarctic Bottom Water and North Atlantic Deep Water in CMIP6 models, Ocean Sci., 17, 59–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-59-2021, 2021. a
Hofmann, M. and Rahmstorf, S.: On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 20584–20589, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0909146106, 2009. a
Höse, A.: Data publication for “Simulating the impact of an AMOC weakening on the Antarctic Ice Sheet using coupled climate and ice-sheet model”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17361782, 2025a. a
Höse, A.: Simulated temperature and salinity anomalies in the Atlantic sector in an AMOC collapse scenario, TIB AV-Portal [video], https://doi.org/10.5446/71763, 2025b. a
Jackson, L., Kahana, R., Graham, T., Ringer, M., Woollings, T., Mecking, J., and Wood, R.: Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM, Clim. Dynam., 45, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2, 2015. a
Jackson, L. C. and Wood, R. A.: Timescales of AMOC decline in response to fresh water forcing, Clim. Dynam., 51, 1333–1350, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3957-6, 2018. a, b
Jackson, L. C., Alastrué de Asenjo, E., Bellomo, K., Danabasoglu, G., Haak, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Lee, W., Meccia, V. L., Saenko, O., Shao, A., and Swingedouw, D.: Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1975–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica, Science, 344, 735–738, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055, 2014. a
Kageyama, M., Paul, A., Roche, D. M., and Van Meerbeeck, C. J.: Modelling glacial climatic millennial-scale variability related to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: a review, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 2931–2956, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.05.029, 2010. a
Kageyama, M., Merkel, U., Otto-Bliesner, B., Prange, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Roche, D. M., Singarayer, J., Swingedouw, D., and Zhang, X.: Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study, Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013. a
Khrulev, C., Bueler, E., Aschwanden, A., damaxwell, Brown, J., Albrecht, T., Seguinot, J., Mengel, M., anders-dc, Hinck, S., Kreuzer, M., Ziemen, F., ronjareese, and tkleiner: M-Kreuzer/Pism: Version as Used in “meltwater-Stratification Feedback” Paper (v1.0_hash_fix_taud_margins), Zenodo [software], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16642252, 2025. a
Knutti, R., Flückiger, J., Stocker, T. F., and Timmermann, A.: Strong hemispheric coupling of glacial climate through freshwater discharge and ocean circulation, Nature, 430, 851–856, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02786, 2004. a, b
Kreuzer, M.: CM2Mc Code as used in paper “Antarctic meltwater-stratification feedback is less pronounced under high climate forcing”, Zenodo [software], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17360862, 2025a. a, b
Kreuzer, M.: M-Kreuzer/PISM-MOM_coupling: Version as used in paper “Antarctic meltwater-stratification feedback is less pronounced under high climate forcing”, Zenodo [software], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16643820, 2025b. a
Kreuzer, M., Reese, R., Huiskamp, W. N., Petri, S., Albrecht, T., Feulner, G., and Winkelmann, R.: Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3697–3714, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Kreuzer, M., Albrecht, T., Nicola, L., Reese, R., and Winkelmann, R.: Bathymetry-constrained impact of relative sea-level change on basal melting in Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 19, 1181–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, 2025. a
Kreuzer, M., Albrecht, T., Huiskamp, W., Petri, S., Feldmann, J., Feulner, G., and Winkelmann, R.: Antarctic meltwater-stratification feedback is less pronounced under high climate forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 53, e2025GL118643, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118643, 2026. a
Kuhlbrodt, T., Griesel, A., Montoya, M., Levermann, A., Hofmann, M., and Rahmstorf, S.: On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Rev. Geophys., 45, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000166, 2007. a
Lai, C.-Y., Kingslake, J., Wearing, M. G., Chen, P.-H. C., Gentine, P., Li, H., Spergel, J. J., and van Wessem, J. M.: Vulnerability of Antarctica's ice shelves to meltwater-driven fracture, Nature, 584, 574–578, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2627-8, 2020. a
Landais, A., Masson-Delmotte, V., Stenni, B., Selmo, E., Roche, D., Jouzel, J., Lambert, F., Guillevic, M., Bazin, L., Arzel, O., Vinther, B., Gkinis, V., and Popp, T.: A review of the bipolar see–saw from synchronized and high resolution ice core water stable isotope records from Greenland and East Antarctica, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 114, 18–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.01.031, 2015. a
Latif, M., Sun, J., Visbeck, M., and Bordbar, M. H.: Natural variability has dominated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1900, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 455–460, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01342-4, 2022. a
Lee, S.-Y., Chiang, J. C. H., Matsumoto, K., and Tokos, K. S.: Southern Ocean wind response to North Atlantic cooling and the rise in atmospheric CO2: Modeling perspective and paleoceanographic implications, Paleoceanography, 26, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010PA002004, 2011. a
Levermann, A., Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., Martin, M. A., Haseloff, M., and Joughin, I.: Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat, The Cryosphere, 6, 273–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-273-2012, 2012. a
Locarnini, M., Mishonov, A., Baranova, O., Boyer, T., Zweng, M., Garcia, H., Reagan, J., Seidov, D., Weathers, K., Paver, C., and Smolyar, I.: World Ocean Atlas 2018, Volume 1: Temperature, Report, NOAA, https://doi.org/10.25923/e5rn-9711, 2018. a, b, c
Lynch-Stieglitz, J.: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 9, 83–104, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060415, 2017. a
Manabe, S. and Ronald, S.: The Stable Criteria of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 1, 841–866, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001<0841:TSEOAC>2.0.CO;2, 1988. a
McKay, D. I. A., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a
McManus, J. F., Francois, R., Gherardi, J.-M., Keigwin, L. D., and Brown-Leger, S.: Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes, Nature, 428, 834–837, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02494, 2004. a
Meccia, V., Simolo, C., Bellomo, K., and Corti, S.: Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad14b0, 2023. a
Mehling, O., Vanderborght, E., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Critical freshwater forcing for AMOC tipping in climate models – compensation matters, Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 563–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-563-2026, 2026. a
Meier, W., Fetterer, F., Windnagel, A., and Stewart, S.: NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 4, https://doi.org/10.7265/EFMZ-2T65, 2021. a
Mishonov, A., Seidov, D., and Reagan, J.: Revisiting the multidecadal variability of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and climate, Frontiers in Marine Science, 11, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1345426, 2024. a
Morlighem, M., Williams, C. N., Rignot, E., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Bamber, J. L., Catania, G., Chauché, N., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., Fenty, I., Hogan, K., Howat, I., Hubbard, A., Jakobsson, M., Jordan, T. M., Kjeldsen, K. K., Millan, R., Mayer, L., Mouginot, J., Noël, B. P. Y., O'Cofaigh, C., Palmer, S., Rysgaard, S., Seroussi, H., Siegert, M. J., Slabon, P., Straneo, F., van den Broeke, M. R., Weinrebe, W., Wood, M., and Zinglersen, K. B.: BedMachine v3: Complete Bed Topography and Ocean Bathymetry Mapping of Greenland From Multibeam Echo Sounding Combined With Mass Conservation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11,051–11,061, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074954, 2017. a
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., and Scheuchl, B.: Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to 2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1576–1584, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059069, 2014. a
Naughten, K. A., Holland, P. R., and De Rydt, J.: Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 1222–1228, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x, 2023. a
Noël, B., van Wessem, J. M., Wouters, B., Trusel, L., Lhermitte, S., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution, Nat. Commun., 14, 7949, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43584-6, 2023. a
Olbers, D. and Hellmer, H.: A box model of circulation and melting in ice shelf caverns, Ocean Dynam., 60, 141–153, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-009-0252-z, 2010. a
Orihuela-Pinto, B., England, M. H., and Taschetto, A. S.: Interbasin and interhemispheric impacts of a collapsed Atlantic Overturning Circulation, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 558–565, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01380-y, 2022. a, b, c, d
Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Ivins, E. R., Schlegel, N.-J., Amory, C., van den Broeke, M. R., Horwath, M., Joughin, I., King, M. D., Krinner, G., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Rignot, E., Scambos, T., Simon, K. M., Smith, B. E., Sørensen, L. S., Velicogna, I., Whitehouse, P. L., A, G., Agosta, C., Ahlstrøm, A. P., Blazquez, A., Colgan, W., Engdahl, M. E., Fettweis, X., Forsberg, R., Gallée, H., Gardner, A., Gilbert, L., Gourmelen, N., Groh, A., Gunter, B. C., Harig, C., Helm, V., Khan, S. A., Kittel, C., Konrad, H., Langen, P. L., Lecavalier, B. S., Liang, C.-C., Loomis, B. D., McMillan, M., Melini, D., Mernild, S. H., Mottram, R., Mouginot, J., Nilsson, J., Noël, B., Pattle, M. E., Peltier, W. R., Pie, N., Roca, M., Sasgen, I., Save, H. V., Seo, K.-W., Scheuchl, B., Schrama, E. J. O., Schröder, L., Simonsen, S. B., Slater, T., Spada, G., Sutterley, T. C., Vishwakarma, B. D., van Wessem, J. M., Wiese, D., van der Wal, W., and Wouters, B.: Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023. a
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–331, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0940, 2015. a
Pedro, J. B., Martin, T., Steig, E. J., Jochum, M., Park, W., and Rasmussen, S. O.: Southern Ocean deep convection as a driver of Antarctic warming events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2192–2199, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067861, 2016. a, b
Peltier, W. R. and Vettoretti, G.: Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A “kicked” salt oscillator in the Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7306–7313, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061413, 2014. a
Pontes, G. M. and Menviel, L.: Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation driven by subarctic freshening since the mid-twentieth century, Nat. Geosci., 17, 1291–1298, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01568-1, 2024. a
Rahmstorf, S.: Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120 000 years, Nature, 419, 207–214, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01090, 2002. a
Rahmstorf, S., Crucifix, M., Ganopolski, A., Goosse, H., Kamenkovich, I., Knutti, R., Lohmann, G., Marsh, R., Mysak, L. A., Wang, Z., and Weaver, A. J.: Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: A model intercomparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023655, 2005. a
Reese, R., Garbe, J., Hill, E. A., Urruty, B., Naughten, K. A., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gudmundsson, G. H., Chandler, D., Langebroek, P. M., and Winkelmann, R.: The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded, The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023. a
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B., van den Broeke, M., van Wessem, M. J., and Morlighem, M.: Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 116, 1095–1103, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812883116, 2019. a
Rind, D., Russell, G., Schmidt, G., Sheth, S., Collins, D., deMenocal, P., and Teller, J.: Effects of glacial meltwater in the GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model: 2. A bipolar seesaw in Atlantic Deep Water production, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 27355–27365, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000954, 2001. a
Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F., and Aoki, S.: Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters, Science, 346, 1227–1231, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1256117, 2014. a
Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. a
Smeed, D. A., Josey, S. A., Beaulieu, C., Johns, W. E., Moat, B. I., Frajka-Williams, E., Rayner, D., Meinen, C. S., Baringer, M. O., Bryden, H. L., and McCarthy, G. D.: The North Atlantic Ocean Is in a State of Reduced Overturning, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1527–1533, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076350, 2018. a
Smith, R. S., Mathiot, P., Siahaan, A., Lee, V., Cornford, S. L., Gregory, J. M., Payne, A. J., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ridley, J. K., and Jones, C. G.: Coupling the U. K. Earth System Model to Dynamic Models of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2021MS002520, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002520, 2021. a
Stocker, T. F. and Johnsen, S. J.: A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw, Paleoceanography, 18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003PA000920, 2003. a, b, c
Stocker, T. F., Timmermann, A., Renold, M., and Timm, O.: Effects of Salt Compensation on the Climate Model Response in Simulations of Large Changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, J. Climate, 20, 5912–5928, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1662.1, 2007. a
Stouffer, R. J., Yin, J., Gregory, J. M., Dixon, K. W., Spelman, M. J., Hurlin, W., Weaver, A. J., Eby, M., Flato, G. M., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Peltier, W. R., Robitaille, D. Y., Sokolov, A., Vettoretti, G., and Weber, S. L.: Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to Past and Future Climate Changes, J. Climate, 19, 1365–1387, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3689.1, 2006. a, b, c, d
Swingedouw, D., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., and Loutre, M. F.: Impact of transient freshwater releases in the Southern Ocean on the AMOC and climate, Clim. Dynam., 33, 365–381, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0496-1, 2009. a
Terhaar, J., Vogt, L., and Foukal, N. P.: Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s, Nat. Commun., 16, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55297-5, 2025. a
Tierney, J. E., Russell, J. M., Huang, Y., Damsté, J. S. S., Hopmans, E. C., and Cohen, A. S.: Northern Hemisphere Controls on Tropical Southeast African Climate During the Past 60 000 Years, Science, 322, 252–255, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160485, 2008. a
Timmermann, A., Okumura, Y., An, S.-I., Clement, A., Dong, B., Guilyardi, E., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Renold, M., Stocker, T. F., Stouffer, R. J., Sutton, R., Xie, S.-P., and Yin, J.: The Influence of a Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO, J. Climate, 20, 4899–4919, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4283.1, 2007. a
van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., Noël, B. P. Y., van Meijgaard, E., Amory, C., Birnbaum, G., Jakobs, C. L., Krüger, K., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Medley, B., Reijmer, C. H., van Tricht, K., Trusel, L. D., van Ulft, L. H., Wouters, B., Wuite, J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018. a
van Wessem, J. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Wouters, B., and Lhermitte, S.: Variable temperature thresholds of melt pond formation on Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 161–166, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01577-1, 2023. a
van Westen, R. M. and Dijkstra, H. A.: Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport, Ocean Sci., 20, 549–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024, 2024. a
van Westen, R. M., Kliphuis, M., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances, 10, eadk1189, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189, 2024. a, b
Vellinga, M. and Wood, R. A.: Global Climatic Impacts of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, Climatic Change, 54, 251–267, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016168827653, 2002. a, b
Voelker, A. H.: Global distribution of centennial-scale records for Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3: a database, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 1185–1212, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00139-1, 2002. a
Wang, Y., Chassignet, E. P., and Speer, K.: On the dynamics of the Ross Gyre: the relative importance of wind, buoyancy, eddies, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Frontiers in Marine Science, 11, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1465808, 2024. a
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Kaufhold, C., Dalmonech, D., Liu, B., and Ilyina, T.: Earth system response to Heinrich events explained by a bipolar convection seesaw, Nat. Geosci., https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01814-0, 2025. a, b, c
Winkelmann, R., Martin, M. A., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C., and Levermann, A.: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) – Part 1: Model description, The Cryosphere, 5, 715–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-715-2011, 2011. a
Wouters, B. and Sasgen, I.: Increasing Freshwater Fluxes from the Greenland Ice Sheet Observed from Space, Oceanography, 35, 103–105, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.125, 2022. a
Wu, S., Lembke-Jene, L., Lamy, F., Arz, H. W., Nowaczyk, N., Xiao, W., Zhang, X., Hass, H. C., Titschack, J., Zheng, X., Liu, J., Dumm, L., Diekmann, B., Nürnberg, D., Tiedemann, R., and Kuhn, G.: Orbital- and millennial-scale Antarctic Circumpolar Current variability in Drake Passage over the past 140 000 years, Nat. Commun., 12, 3948, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24264-9, 2021. a
Wunderling, N., Donges, J. F., Kurths, J., and Winkelmann, R.: Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021. a
Wunderling, N., von der Heydt, A. S., Aksenov, Y., Barker, S., Bastiaansen, R., Brovkin, V., Brunetti, M., Couplet, V., Kleinen, T., Lear, C. H., Lohmann, J., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Sinet, S., Swingedouw, D., Winkelmann, R., Anand, P., Barichivich, J., Bathiany, S., Baudena, M., Bruun, J. T., Chiessi, C. M., Coxall, H. K., Docquier, D., Donges, J. F., Falkena, S. K. J., Klose, A. K., Obura, D., Rocha, J., Rynders, S., Steinert, N. J., and Willeit, M.: Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024. a, b, c
Xing, Q., Elipot, S., Johns, W. E., Smeed, D. A., Moat, B. I., and Loder, J. W.: Meridionally consistent decline in the observed western boundary contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Science Advances, 12, eadz7738, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adz7738, 2026. a
Yeung, N. K.-H., Menviel, L., Meissner, K. J., Choudhury, D., Ziehn, T., and Chamberlain, M. A.: Last Interglacial subsurface warming on the Antarctic shelf triggered by reduced deep-ocean convection, Communications Earth and Environment, 5, 212, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01383-x, 2024. a
Zhang, L., Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W., and Yang, X.: Natural Variability of Southern Ocean Convection as a Driver of Observed Climate Trends, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3, 2019. a, b
Zhu, C. and Liu, Z.: Weakening Atlantic overturning circulation causes South Atlantic salinity pile-up, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 998–1003, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0897-7, 2020. a
Zweng, M., Reagan, J., Seidov, D., Boyer, T., Locarnini, M., Garcia, H., Mishonov, A., Baranova, O., Weathers, K., Paver, C., and Smolyar, I.: World Ocean Atlas 2018, vol. 2: Salinity, Report, NOAA, https://doi.org/10.25923/9pgv-1224, 2019. a, b, c
Short summary
This research investigates the interactions between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which are both recognized as critical climate tipping elements in the Earth system. We conduct a computer simulation with artificial freshwater input in the North Atlantic to collapse the AMOC for 1500 years. Our findings show no destabilization of the Antarctic Ice Sheet induced by changes in the Southern Ocean during this period.
This research investigates the interactions between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint