Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| Highlight paper
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08 Oct 2025
Review | Highlight paper |
| 08 Oct 2025
| 08 Oct 2025
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
Earth Resilience Science Unit and Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg 31A, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Integrative Earth System Science, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Jena, Germany
Yevgeny Aksenov
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
David I. Armstrong McKay
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
Govindasamy Bala
Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru-560012, Karnataka, India
Andreas Born
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway
Cristiano Mazur Chiessi
School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
Henk A. Dijkstra
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, the Netherlands
Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Resilience Science Unit and Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg 31A, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Integrative Earth System Science, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Jena, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Sybren Drijfhout
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, the Netherlands
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Matthew H. England
Centre for Marine Science and Innovation (CMSI), University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
ARC Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Alexey V. Fedorov
Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne University, Paris, France
Laura C. Jackson
Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, UK
Kai Kornhuber
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Gabriele Messori
Dept. of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Francesco S. R. Pausata
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Stefanie Rynders
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
Jean-Baptiste Sallée
Sorbonne Université, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
Bablu Sinha
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
Steven C. Sherwood
Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Kensington, NSW 2052, Australia
Didier Swingedouw
Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) Univ. Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, EPOC, UMR 5805, 33600 Pessac, France
Thejna Tharammal
Interdisciplinary Centre for Water Research, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru 560012, India
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Cited
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models S. Falkena et al. 10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025
- Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs? S. Loriani et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09866-4
- Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability B. Dong et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
- A Review of the arctic-West African monsoon nexus: How arctic sea ice decline influences monsoon system A. Datti et al. 10.1007/s00704-024-05255-4
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs? S. Loriani et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09866-4
- Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability B. Dong et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
- A Review of the arctic-West African monsoon nexus: How arctic sea ice decline influences monsoon system A. Datti et al. 10.1007/s00704-024-05255-4
Latest update: 28 Oct 2025
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Chief editor
This paper represents a state-of-the-art review of tipping points in the physical climate system. It should be of great value and use to inform the community about the current status of research on tipping points and global climate change.
This paper represents a state-of-the-art review of tipping points in the physical climate...
Short summary
In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping...
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