Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
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09 Sep 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 09 Sep 2025

Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100

Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein

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This paper examines multi-century consequences of climate change following a simulated reversal of emissions from the SSP3-7.0 (high emissions) scenario in 2100 to net zero in 2250. It demonstrates the potential for very long-term, major committed impacts of the ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
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A new 10-member ensemble simulation with the state-of-the-art Earth system model was employed to study the long-term climate response to sustained greenhouse warming through to the year 2500. The findings show that the projected changes in the forced mean state and internal variability during 2101–2500 differ substantially from the 21st-century projections, emphasizing the importance of multi-century perspectives for understanding future climate change and informing effective mitigation strategies.
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