Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025
Research article
 | 
18 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 18 Jul 2025

Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors

Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min

Related authors

Direct and indirect application of univariate and multivariate bias corrections on heat-stress indices based on multiple regional-climate-model simulations
Liying Qiu, Eun-Soon Im, Seung-Ki Min, Yeon-Hee Kim, Dong-Hyun Cha, Seok-Woo Shin, Joong-Bae Ahn, Eun-Chul Chang, and Young-Hwa Byun
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 507–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-507-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-507-2023, 2023
Short summary

Related subject area

Topics: Climate change | Interactions: Ocean/atmosphere interactions | Methods: Earth system and climate modeling
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2,https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2025
Short summary
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, 2025
Short summary
Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Paolo De Luca, Raffaele Bernardello, and Markus G. Donat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5
Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn, Matthew Chamberlain, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, Liam Cassidy, Andrea J. Dittus, Michael Grose, Nicola Maher, Seungmok Paik, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Aditya Sengupta
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024
Short summary
MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses
Hideo Shiogama, Hiroaki Tatebe, Michiya Hayashi, Manabu Abe, Miki Arai, Hiroshi Koyama, Yukiko Imada, Yu Kosaka, Tomoo Ogura, and Masahiro Watanabe
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1107–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Adler, R. F., Sapiano, M. R. P., Huffman, G. J., Wang, J.-J., Gu, G., Bolvin, D., Chiu, L., Schneider, U., Becker, A., Nelkin, E., Xie, P., Ferraro, R., and Shin, D.-B.: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Analysis (New Version 2.3) and a Review of 2017 Global Precipitation, Atmosphere, 9, 138, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040138, 2018. 
Chen, C.-A., Hsu, H.-H., and Liang, H.-C.: Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating the seasonal extreme precipitation in the Western North Pacific and East Asia, Weather Clim. Extremes, 31, 100303, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100303, 2021. 
Chen, Z., Zhou, T., Zhang, L., Chen, X., Zhang, W., and Jiang, J.: Global land monsoon precipitation changes in CMIP6 projections, Geophy. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086902, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086902, 2020. 
Endo, H. and Kitoh, A.: Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1704–1711, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059158, 2014. 
ESGF: CMIP6, ESGF [data set], https://esgf-metagrid.cloud.dkrz.de/ (last access: 11 June 2025), 2025. 
Download
Short summary
This study evaluated the performance of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate models in simulating East Asian summer precipitation and projected its future changes using regional inter-monthly pattern metrics. CMIP6 models better captured observations with reduced biases compared to CMIP5 models. Future projections indicate an overall intensified monsoon band due to the increased moisture availability. The relative importance of atmospheric circulation and moisture change is identified for inter-model and scenario uncertainty, respectively.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint