Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
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the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
27 May 2024
Review |
| 27 May 2024
| 27 May 2024
Lake ecosystem tipping points and climate feedbacks
Department of Biosciences, Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
Tom Andersen
Department of Biosciences, Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
David Armstrong McKay
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Sarian Kosten
Department of Aquatic Ecology and Environmental Biology, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
Mariana Meerhoff
Department of Ecology and Environmental Management, Centro Universitario Regional del Este (CURE), Universidad de la República, Cachimba del Rey s/n Maldonado, Uruguay
Department of Ecosciences, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Amy Pickard
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (Edinburgh), Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK
Bryan M. Spears
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (Edinburgh), Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK
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Christina Nadeau, Manjana Milkoreit, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Dag Olav Hessen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 969–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, 2024
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The paper examines how knowledge about climate tipping points (CTPs) influences public risk perceptions in Norway. Using an online survey, the study finds that only 13 % of Norwegians have good knowledge of climate tipping points. Communication about these tipping points had a modest effect, slightly increasing concern compared to general climate change information. The study highlights the need for further research on this topic, especially how to effectively communicate knowledge about CTPs.
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
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Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
Christina Nadeau, Manjana Milkoreit, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Dag Olav Hessen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 969–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines how knowledge about climate tipping points (CTPs) influences public risk perceptions in Norway. Using an online survey, the study finds that only 13 % of Norwegians have good knowledge of climate tipping points. Communication about these tipping points had a modest effect, slightly increasing concern compared to general climate change information. The study highlights the need for further research on this topic, especially how to effectively communicate knowledge about CTPs.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
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In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Jennifer Williamson, Chris Evans, Bryan Spears, Amy Pickard, Pippa J. Chapman, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Fraser Leith, Susan Waldron, and Don Monteith
Biogeosciences, 20, 3751–3766, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, 2023
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Managing drinking water catchments to minimise water colour could reduce costs for water companies and save their customers money. Brown-coloured water comes from peat soils, primarily around upland reservoirs. Management practices, including blocking drains, removing conifers, restoring peatland plants and reducing burning, have been used to try and reduce water colour. This work brings together published evidence of the effectiveness of these practices to aid water industry decision-making.
Amy E. Pickard, Marcella Branagan, Mike F. Billett, Roxane Andersen, and Kerry J. Dinsmore
Biogeosciences, 19, 1321–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1321-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1321-2022, 2022
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Peatlands have been subject to a range of land management regimes over the past century. This has affected the amount of carbon that drains into surrounding streams and rivers. In our study, we measured carbon concentrations in streams draining from drained, non-drained, and restored areas of the Flow Country blanket bog in N Scotland. We found that drained peatland had higher concentrations and fluxes of carbon relative to non-drained areas. Restored peatland areas were highly variable.
David I. Armstrong McKay, Sarah E. Cornell, Katherine Richardson, and Johan Rockström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 797–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-797-2021, 2021
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We use an Earth system model with two new ocean ecosystem features (plankton size traits and temperature-sensitive nutrient recycling) to revaluate the effect of climate change on sinking organic carbon (the
biological pump) and the ocean carbon sink. These features lead to contrary pump responses to warming, with a combined effect of a smaller sink despite a more resilient pump. These results show the importance of including ecological dynamics in models for understanding climate feedbacks.
Jennifer Williamson, Christopher Evans, Bryan Spears, Amy Pickard, Pippa J. Chapman, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Fraser Leith, and Don Monteith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-450, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Water companies in the UK have found that drinking water from upland reservoirs is becoming browner. This is costly to treat and if the dissolved organic matter that causes the colour isn't removed potentially harmful chemicals could be produced. Land management around reservoirs has been suggested as a way to reduce water colour. We reviewed the available literature to assess whether this would work. There is limited evidence available to date, although forestry appears to increase colour.
Anne Marieke Motelica-Wagenaar, Tim A. H. M. Pelsma, Laura Moria, and Sarian Kosten
Proc. IAHS, 382, 635–642, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-635-2020, 2020
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Water authorities responsible for water quantity and water quality management may strongly influence the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions from surface waters and adjacent peat areas within their territories.
In a case study of the Dutch Water Authority Amstel, Gooi and Vecht it is estimated that these emissions are about 10 times higher than the climate footprint of the operational management of the water authority.
Nicholas Cowan, Peter Levy, Andrea Moring, Ivan Simmons, Colin Bache, Amy Stephens, Joana Marinheiro, Jocelyn Brichet, Ling Song, Amy Pickard, Connie McNeill, Roseanne McDonald, Juliette Maire, Benjamin Loubet, Polina Voylokov, Mark Sutton, and Ute Skiba
Biogeosciences, 16, 4731–4745, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4731-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4731-2019, 2019
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Commonly used nitrogen fertilisers, ammonium nitrate, urea and urea coated with a urease inhibitor, were applied to experimental plots. Fertilisation with ammonium nitrate supported the largest yields but also resulted in the largest nitrous oxide emissions. Urea was the largest emitter of ammonia. The coated urea did not significantly increase yields; however, ammonia emissions were substantially smaller than urea. The coated urea was the best environmentally but is economically unattractive.
David I. Armstrong McKay and Timothy M. Lenton
Clim. Past, 14, 1515–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1515-2018, 2018
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This study uses statistical analyses to look for signs of declining resilience (i.e. greater sensitivity to small shocks) in the global carbon cycle and climate system across the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a global warming event 56 Myr ago driven by rapid carbon release. Our main finding is that carbon cycle resilience declined in the 1.5 Myr beforehand (a time of significant volcanic emissions), which is consistent with but not proof of a carbon release tipping point at the PETM.
Ernandes Sobreira Oliveira Junior, Yingying Tang, Sanne J. P. van den Berg, Leon P. M. Lamers, and Sarian Kosten
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-297, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-297, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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The differential effects of the aquatic plants on greenhouse gas fluxes may be due to plant density and whether or not the plant roots can access the sediment. We therefore looked into the effect of these two variables on water hyacinth greenhouse gas balance using a laboratory experiment. We found that greenhouse gas dynamics were strongly influenced by plant density and rooting. Our findings pinpoint management options that can optimize carbon sequestration and minimize CH4 emissions.
Raquel Mendonça, Sarian Kosten, Sebastian Sobek, Simone Jaqueline Cardoso, Marcos Paulo Figueiredo-Barros, Carlos Henrique Duque Estrada, and Fábio Roland
Biogeosciences, 13, 3331–3342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3331-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3331-2016, 2016
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Hydroelectric reservoirs in the tropics emit greenhouse gases but also bury carbon in their sediments. We investigated the efficiency of organic carbon (OC) burial in a large tropical reservoir, using spatially resolved measurements of sediment accumulation, and found that more than half (~ 57 %) of the OC deposited onto the sediment is buried. This high efficiency in OC burial indicates that tropical reservoirs may bury OC more efficiently than natural lakes.
S. F. Harpenslager, G. van Dijk, S. Kosten, J. G. M. Roelofs, A. J. P. Smolders, and L. P. M. Lamers
Biogeosciences, 12, 4739–4749, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4739-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4739-2015, 2015
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While pristine, growing peatlands are often considered to be net sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2), fluxes vary considerably and these systems can be net sinks or sources of CO2. To explain part of this huge variation, here we present a phenomenon of peat moss (Sphagnum)-driven CO2 production. Due to the acid excreted by Sphagnum, bicarbonate in the surface water is transformed into CO2. Thus, while these systems have high CO2 fixation rates due to growing Sphagnum, they show a net emission of CO2.
A. T. Romarheim, K. Tominaga, G. Riise, and T. Andersen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2649-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2649-2015, 2015
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We disentangled two major factors that affect lake water quality, namely the meteorological conditions and loading from the catchment.
In previous studies, distinction of these two major factors was not always sought.
However, from the management point of view, quantifying these two factors may be of interest, for example because the managers may want to evaluate the effectiveness of an abatement plan that reduced catchment loading despite the unfavourable meteorological conditions.
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Short summary
Lakes worldwide are changing and under threat due to stressors such as overload of nutrients, increased input of organic carbon (“browning”), and climate change, which may cause reduced water volume, salinization, or even loss of waterbodies. Some of these changes are abrupt to the extent that they can be characterized as tipping points for that particular system. Such changes may also cause increased release of greenhouse gases, and lakes are major players in the global climate in this context.
Lakes worldwide are changing and under threat due to stressors such as overload of nutrients,...
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