Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
27 May 2024
Review |
| 27 May 2024
| 27 May 2024
Lake ecosystem tipping points and climate feedbacks
Department of Biosciences, Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
Tom Andersen
Department of Biosciences, Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
David Armstrong McKay
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Sarian Kosten
Department of Aquatic Ecology and Environmental Biology, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
Mariana Meerhoff
Department of Ecology and Environmental Management, Centro Universitario Regional del Este (CURE), Universidad de la República, Cachimba del Rey s/n Maldonado, Uruguay
Department of Ecosciences, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
Amy Pickard
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (Edinburgh), Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK
Bryan M. Spears
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (Edinburgh), Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK
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Christina Nadeau, Manjana Milkoreit, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Dag Olav Hessen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 969–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, 2024
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The paper examines how knowledge about climate tipping points (CTPs) influences public risk perceptions in Norway. Using an online survey, the study finds that only 13 % of Norwegians have good knowledge of climate tipping points. Communication about these tipping points had a modest effect, slightly increasing concern compared to general climate change information. The study highlights the need for further research on this topic, especially how to effectively communicate knowledge about CTPs.
Katarzyna Sawicka, Edwin C. Rowe, Donald T. Monteith, Amy Pickard, Brian M. Spears, Jennifer Williamson, Annette Burden, Alan Radbourne, Zak Mitchell, Dan J. Lapworth, Christopher A. Yates, Penny J. Johnes, and Christopher D. Evans
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3786, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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We developed a simple way to predict how much dissolved organic carbon moves from soils into streams, and what types of carbon are present, using widely available data. By analysing 150 small catchments across Great Britain, we found that peat-rich landscapes release more carbon, especially forms that are resistant to breakdown, while farmland releases less and simpler forms. These patterns can be mapped at large scales, helping improve carbon cycle estimates and support water management.
David Ian Armstrong McKay
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3886, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Global temperature in the Holocene has been remarkably stable compared to the Glacials and Interglacials before it. This is often interpreted as evidence for the Holocene being in a self-stabilising “attractor” climate state, implying a potentially imminent tipping point to a much hotter state instead. However, while there is some evidence in support of a Holocene attractor, it is insufficient to rule out several other potential explanations, and more evidence is needed to test these hypotheses.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
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In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
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Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
Christina Nadeau, Manjana Milkoreit, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Dag Olav Hessen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 969–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines how knowledge about climate tipping points (CTPs) influences public risk perceptions in Norway. Using an online survey, the study finds that only 13 % of Norwegians have good knowledge of climate tipping points. Communication about these tipping points had a modest effect, slightly increasing concern compared to general climate change information. The study highlights the need for further research on this topic, especially how to effectively communicate knowledge about CTPs.
Jennifer Williamson, Chris Evans, Bryan Spears, Amy Pickard, Pippa J. Chapman, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Fraser Leith, Susan Waldron, and Don Monteith
Biogeosciences, 20, 3751–3766, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, 2023
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Managing drinking water catchments to minimise water colour could reduce costs for water companies and save their customers money. Brown-coloured water comes from peat soils, primarily around upland reservoirs. Management practices, including blocking drains, removing conifers, restoring peatland plants and reducing burning, have been used to try and reduce water colour. This work brings together published evidence of the effectiveness of these practices to aid water industry decision-making.
Amy E. Pickard, Marcella Branagan, Mike F. Billett, Roxane Andersen, and Kerry J. Dinsmore
Biogeosciences, 19, 1321–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1321-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1321-2022, 2022
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Peatlands have been subject to a range of land management regimes over the past century. This has affected the amount of carbon that drains into surrounding streams and rivers. In our study, we measured carbon concentrations in streams draining from drained, non-drained, and restored areas of the Flow Country blanket bog in N Scotland. We found that drained peatland had higher concentrations and fluxes of carbon relative to non-drained areas. Restored peatland areas were highly variable.
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Short summary
Lakes worldwide are changing and under threat due to stressors such as overload of nutrients, increased input of organic carbon (“browning”), and climate change, which may cause reduced water volume, salinization, or even loss of waterbodies. Some of these changes are abrupt to the extent that they can be characterized as tipping points for that particular system. Such changes may also cause increased release of greenhouse gases, and lakes are major players in the global climate in this context.
Lakes worldwide are changing and under threat due to stressors such as overload of nutrients,...
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