Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 May 2024
Research article |
| 27 May 2024
| 27 May 2024
Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Ann Kristin Klose
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Jonathan F. Donges
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Ulrike Feudel
Theoretical Physics/Complex Systems, ICBM, University of Oldenburg, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany
Ricarda Winkelmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Department Evolutionary Earth Systems Science, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, 07745 Jena, Germany
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Cited
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- From multistability to collapse: Rate-induced tipping of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under linear and periodic freshwater forcing J. Duan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2026.135340
- Quantitative comparison of causal inference methods for climate tipping points N. Lohmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026
- Structural stability changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation M. Dima et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00960-x
- Anticipating socio-technical tipping points F. Mey et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102911
- A criterion for safe overshoot in coupled tipping systems S. Sinet et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0332433
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
- The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1 C. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026
- Multiple tipping phenomena in a system with a time-dependent parameter excited by coloured noise X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116853
- Media Coverage of Ski and Climate Crisis : A Framing Analysis J. Kim & B. Yeon https://doi.org/10.26446/kjlrp.2025.3.49.1.117
- The Impact of Climate Change Awareness on Behavior and Willingness to Pay among Seasonal Sports Participants J. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.16915/jkapesgw.2025.12.39.4.249
- Probabilistic anticipation of AMOC transitions under critical forcing magnitudes and rates via deep learning W. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118374
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- Overview of the advances in understanding chaos in low-dimensional dynamical systems subjected to parameter drift D. Jánosi & T. Tél https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2024.09.003
- Climate tipping points and their potential impact on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe P. van Thienen et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/wat.2024.14
- Connecting complex and simplified models of tipping elements: a nonlinear two-forcing emulator for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation A. Laridon et al. https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.19479.1
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Tipping of thermoacoustic systems with secondary bifurcation in colored noise environments: Effects of rate X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0245575
- Cascade tipping, cascade hopping and indirect tipping in ecological systems A. Basak et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/sn5v-xyb5
- Connecting complex and simplified models of tipping elements: a nonlinear two-forcing emulator for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation A. Laridon et al. https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.19479.2
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- From multistability to collapse: Rate-induced tipping of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under linear and periodic freshwater forcing J. Duan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2026.135340
- Quantitative comparison of causal inference methods for climate tipping points N. Lohmann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-313-2026
- Structural stability changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation M. Dima et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00960-x
- Anticipating socio-technical tipping points F. Mey et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102911
- A criterion for safe overshoot in coupled tipping systems S. Sinet et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0332433
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
- The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1 C. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026
- Multiple tipping phenomena in a system with a time-dependent parameter excited by coloured noise X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116853
- Media Coverage of Ski and Climate Crisis : A Framing Analysis J. Kim & B. Yeon https://doi.org/10.26446/kjlrp.2025.3.49.1.117
- The Impact of Climate Change Awareness on Behavior and Willingness to Pay among Seasonal Sports Participants J. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.16915/jkapesgw.2025.12.39.4.249
- Probabilistic anticipation of AMOC transitions under critical forcing magnitudes and rates via deep learning W. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118374
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- Overview of the advances in understanding chaos in low-dimensional dynamical systems subjected to parameter drift D. Jánosi & T. Tél https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2024.09.003
- Climate tipping points and their potential impact on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe P. van Thienen et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/wat.2024.14
- Connecting complex and simplified models of tipping elements: a nonlinear two-forcing emulator for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation A. Laridon et al. https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.19479.1
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Tipping of thermoacoustic systems with secondary bifurcation in colored noise environments: Effects of rate X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0245575
- Cascade tipping, cascade hopping and indirect tipping in ecological systems A. Basak et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/sn5v-xyb5
- Connecting complex and simplified models of tipping elements: a nonlinear two-forcing emulator for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation A. Laridon et al. https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.19479.2
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 28 Aug 2026
Short summary
We qualitatively study the long-term stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and AMOC as tipping elements in the Earth system, which is largely unknown given their interaction in a positive–negative feedback loop. Depending on the timescales of ice loss and the position of the AMOC’s state relative to its critical threshold, we find distinct dynamic regimes of cascading tipping. These suggest that respecting safe rates of environmental change is necessary to mitigate potential domino effects.
We qualitatively study the long-term stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and AMOC as tipping...
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