Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-501-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-501-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 26 Apr 2024
| 26 Apr 2024
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis
Earth Science Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Pablo Ortega
Earth Science Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Didier Swingedouw
Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) Univ. Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux, France
Leon Hermanson
Predictability Research Group, MetOffice, Exeter, UK
Panos Athanasiadis
Climate Simulations and Predictions Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Rosie Eade
Predictability Research Group, MetOffice, Exeter, UK
Marion Devilliers
National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Earth Science Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
Nick Dunstone
Predictability Research Group, MetOffice, Exeter, UK
An-Chi Ho
Earth Science Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
William Merryfield
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Victoria, Canada
Juliette Mignot
Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
Dario Nicolì
Climate Simulations and Predictions Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Margarida Samsó
Earth Science Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Victoria, Canada
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Stephen Yeager
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
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Cited
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Comparing near-term information from national climate scenarios and initialised decadal predictions J. Murphy et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07807-4
- The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: insights for the next major eruption R. Bilbao et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025
- Impact of major tropical volcanic eruptions on air temperatures in the Middle East G. Roshan et al. 10.1007/s12145-025-01954-2
- Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability B. Dong et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Comparing near-term information from national climate scenarios and initialised decadal predictions J. Murphy et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07807-4
- The sensitivity of EC-Earth3 decadal predictions to the choice of volcanic forcing dataset: insights for the next major eruption R. Bilbao et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-6239-2025
- Impact of major tropical volcanic eruptions on air temperatures in the Middle East G. Roshan et al. 10.1007/s12145-025-01954-2
- Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability B. Dong et al. 10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
Latest update: 31 Oct 2025
Short summary
In recent decades three major volcanic eruptions have occurred: Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991. In this article we explore the climatic impacts of these volcanic eruptions with a purposefully designed set of simulations from six CMIP6 decadal prediction systems. We analyse the radiative and dynamical responses and show that including the volcanic forcing in these predictions is important to reproduce the observed surface temperature variations.
In recent decades three major volcanic eruptions have occurred: Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón...
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