Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-467-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The long-term impact of transgressing planetary boundaries on biophysical atmosphere–land interactions
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- Final revised paper (published on 25 Apr 2024)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 05 Oct 2023)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2133', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Oct 2023
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Markus Drüke, 16 Feb 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2133', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Nov 2023
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Markus Drüke, 16 Feb 2024
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (17 Feb 2024) by Christian Franzke
AR by Markus Drüke on behalf of the Authors (19 Feb 2024)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (20 Feb 2024) by Christian Franzke
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (25 Feb 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (26 Feb 2024) by Christian Franzke
AR by Markus Drüke on behalf of the Authors (01 Mar 2024)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (05 Mar 2024) by Christian Franzke
AR by Markus Drüke on behalf of the Authors (20 Mar 2024)
The research conducted by Drüke et al. offers insights into the Earth's future using the fully coupled and dynamic Earth system model, POEM. This study underscores the importance of respecting Earth's 'boundaries', demonstrating the extensive consequences of human-induced land use and climate change on the biosphere if these boundaries are overlooked or breached at various degrees. What sets this study apart is its scope: while the IPCC offers emission scenarios on climate change up to 2100, Drüke et al. delve into more extended time frames, revealing the potential long-term repercussions of human activities on both the Earth's biosphere and climate. Through detailed, spatially-explicit maps, the authors highlight both global patterns and regional disparities, showing the extensive ways human activities can alter land surfaces and climates.This work has substantial implications on the different levels of commitment that can serve as a guidance on safeguarding the planetary boundaries of land surface and climate change from a scientific point of view.
However, I'd like to address two main concerns:
First, the prescribed set-ups of climate change (CC) and land system change (LSC) are separated in the six different scenarios. The implicit assumption behind this set-up is that these two processes are relatively independent. For example, a scenario where there is low human activity but extensive climate change is presented by pairing low LSC with high CC. However, climate change and land use are interconnected: land use change influence global greenhouse gas levels, thereby affecting climate change. Conversely, a shifting climate also impacts agriculture and land use patterns. The intimate relationship between CC and LSC needs to be factored into the model. My concern is whether all the scenarios are realistic? And how does the model account for the interaction between CC and LSC?
Secondly, as showcased in Figure 2c, when LSC boundaries are crossed, vegetation carbon storage experiences a significant reduction of approximately 180 PgC due to intensive land use. Soil carbon sees only a modest increase of 60-70 PgC, attributed to an increase in litter input into the soil carbon pool, as the authors have suggested. This leaves around 110 PgC of carbon to be either burned, utilized, or decomposed, inevitably increasing emissions. Even if only half of this carbon is released into the atmosphere, it would amount to a roughly 115 ppm (55 PgC) surge in atmospheric CO2—a significant increment given the maximum CO2 level in the most drastic scenarios is 550 ppm in the modeling setup. The study's modeling efforts lock the CO2 level at a constant from 2052 onward, but for a comprehensive understanding of long-term changes, this factor should be integrated.
Lastly, a few specific comments on the manuscript: