Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Dec 2024
Research article |
| 18 Dec 2024
| 18 Dec 2024
AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Jens Terhaar
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Fortunat Joos
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Friedrich A. Burger
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Fabrice Lacroix
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Myles Allen
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Raffaele Bernardello
Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Laurent Bopp
LMD-IPSL, CNRS, Ecole normale supérieure/PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
Victor Brovkin
Climate Dynamics Department, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Jonathan R. Buzan
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Patricia Cadule
LMD-IPSL, CNRS, Ecole normale supérieure/PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
Martin Dix
CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia
John Dunne
Earth System Processes and Interactions Division, NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Pierre Friedlingstein
LMD-IPSL, CNRS, Ecole normale supérieure/PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Goran Georgievski
Climate Dynamics Department, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Tomohiro Hajima
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Stuart Jenkins
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Michio Kawamiya
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Advanced Institute for Marine Ecosystem Change, Tohoku University, Sengai, Japan
Nancy Y. Kiang
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Vladimir Lapin
Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Donghyun Lee
Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Paul Lerner
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Nadine Mengis
Biogeochemical modelling department, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Estela A. Monteiro
Biogeochemical modelling department, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
David Paynter
Atmospheric Physics Division, NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Glen P. Peters
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Anastasia Romanou
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Jörg Schwinger
NORCE Climate & Environment and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Sarah Sparrow
Oxford e-Research Centre, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Eric Stofferahn
Earth System Processes and Interactions Division, NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Jerry Tjiputra
NORCE Climate & Environment and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Etienne Tourigny
Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia
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Cited
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Long-term impacts of global temperature stabilization and overshoot on exploited marine species A. Morée et al. 10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025
- Marine ecosystem role in setting up preindustrial and future climate J. Tjiputra et al. 10.1038/s41467-025-57371-y
- Composite model-based estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022 J. Terhaar 10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025
- FROT: A Framework to comprehensively describe radiative contributions to temperature responses E. Monteiro et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8807
- Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models J. Terhaar 10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024
- Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information P. Pfleiderer et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01597-w
- The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024
- AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
- Overconfidence in climate overshoot C. Schleussner et al. 10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Long-term impacts of global temperature stabilization and overshoot on exploited marine species A. Morée et al. 10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025
- Marine ecosystem role in setting up preindustrial and future climate J. Tjiputra et al. 10.1038/s41467-025-57371-y
- Composite model-based estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022 J. Terhaar 10.5194/bg-22-1631-2025
6 citations as recorded by crossref.
- FROT: A Framework to comprehensively describe radiative contributions to temperature responses E. Monteiro et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8807
- Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models J. Terhaar 10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024
- Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information P. Pfleiderer et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01597-w
- The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024
- AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
- Overconfidence in climate overshoot C. Schleussner et al. 10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate...
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