Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1385-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1385-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 08 Nov 2024
| 08 Nov 2024
Extrapolation is not enough: impacts of extreme land use change on wind profiles and wind energy according to regional climate models
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
now at: Department of Technology Systems (ITS), University of Oslo, Kjeller, Norway
Peter Hoffmann
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
Daniela C. A. Lima
Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisbon, Portugal
Marcus Breil
Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
Olivier Asselin
Ouranos, Montréal, Canada
Diana Rechid
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
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Jan Wohland, Doris Folini, and Bryn Pickering
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1239–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, 2021
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Surface winds fluctuate. From around 1980 to 2010, surface onshore winds generally became weaker, and they have gained in strength since then. While these fluctuations are well known, we currently do not fully understand why they happen. To investigate the reasons, we use a large set of climate simulations with one model, a so-called large ensemble. We find that the observed long-term wind fluctuations occur naturally under current and future conditions and do not require a specific trigger.
Charlotte Neubacher, Dirk Witthaut, and Jan Wohland
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In our study, we investigate the variability of potential offshore wind power over Europe on time scales of more than 10 years. Detailed spectral analysis of potential offshore wind power capacities over the last century indicates a strong coupling to large climate patterns such as the NAO. Furthermore, combining the wind power potential at the German North Sea and the Portuguese Atlantic coast shows that the variability can be mitigated.
Jan Wohland, Nour Eddine Omrani, Noel Keenlyside, and Dirk Witthaut
Wind Energ. Sci., 4, 515–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-515-2019, 2019
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Wind park planning and power system design require robust wind resource information. While most assessments are restricted to the last four decades, we use centennial reanalyses to study wind energy generation variability in Germany. We find that statistically significant multi-decadal variability exists. These long-term effects must be considered when planning future highly renewable power systems. Otherwise, there is a risk of inefficient system design and ill-informed investments.
Jan Wohland, Mark Reyers, Juliane Weber, and Dirk Witthaut
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1047–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017, 2017
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Solar and wind energy generation are weather dependent and can not be switched on when needed. Despite this, stable electricity supply can be obtained by aggregation over large areas, for example Europe. However, we show that strong climate change impedes spatial balancing of electricity because countries are more likely to suffer from simultaneous generation shortfall. As a consequence, local scarcity can less often be balanced by imports.
João Careto, Rita Cardoso, Ana Russo, Daniela Lima, and Pedro Soares
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-9, 2024
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In this study, a new drought index is proposed, which not only is able to identify the same events but also can improve the results obtained from other established drought indices. The index is empirically based and is extremely straightforward to compute. It is as well, a daily drought index with the ability to not only assess flash droughts but also events at longer aggregation scales, such as the traditional monthly indices.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
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The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Christina Asmus, Peter Hoffmann, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Jürgen Böhner, and Diana Rechid
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Irrigation modifies the land surface and soil conditions. The effects can be quantified using numerical climate models. Our study introduces a new irrigation parameterization, which simulates the effects of irrigation on land, atmosphere, and vegetation. We applied the parameterization and evaluated the results in terms of their physical consistency. We found an improvement in the model results in the 2 m temperature representation in comparison with observational data for our study.
Peter Hoffmann, Vanessa Reinhart, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Edouard L. Davin, Christina Asmus, Benjamin Bechtel, Jürgen Böhner, Eleni Katragkou, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3819–3852, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, 2023
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This paper introduces the new high-resolution land use and land cover change dataset LUCAS LUC for Europe (version 1.1), tailored for use in regional climate models. Historical and projected future land use change information from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset is translated into annual plant functional type changes from 1950 to 2015 and 2016 to 2100, respectively, by employing a newly developed land use translator.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Joni-Pekka Pietikaeinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, 2023
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Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
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Marcus Breil, Felix Krawczyk, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, 2023
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Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 51–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-51-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-51-2022, 2022
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Preprint archived
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Priscilla A. Mooney, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Anne Sophie Daloz, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 1383–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1383-2022, 2022
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Vanessa Reinhart, Peter Hoffmann, Diana Rechid, Jürgen Böhner, and Benjamin Bechtel
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The LANDMATE plant functional type (PFT) land cover dataset for Europe 2015 (Version 1.0) is a gridded, high-resolution dataset for use in regional climate models. LANDMATE PFT is prepared using the expertise of regional climate modellers all over Europe and is easily adjustable to fit into different climate model families. We provide comprehensive spatial quality information for LANDMATE PFT, which can be used to reduce uncertainty in regional climate model simulations.
Giannis Sofiadis, Eleni Katragkou, Edouard L. Davin, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Lisa Jach, Ronny Meier, Priscilla A. Mooney, Pedro M. M. Soares, Susanna Strada, Merja H. Tölle, and Kirsten Warrach Sagi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 595–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-595-2022, 2022
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Afforestation is currently promoted as a greenhouse gas mitigation strategy. In our study, we examine the differences in soil temperature and moisture between grounds covered either by forests or grass. The main conclusion emerged is that forest-covered grounds are cooler but drier than open lands in summer. Therefore, afforestation disrupts the seasonal cycle of soil temperature, which in turn could trigger changes in crucial chemical processes such as soil carbon sequestration.
Jan Wohland, Doris Folini, and Bryn Pickering
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1239–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, 2021
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Short summary
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Marcus Breil, Emanuel Christner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Melanie Karremann, and Gerd Schädler
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For the first time an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation for Greenland is performed for the mid-Holocene. Simulation results are compared with observed isotope ratios in ice cores. Compared to global climate simulations, a regional downscaling improves the agreement with measured isotope concentrations. Thus, an isotope-enabled regional climate simulation constitutes a useful supplement to reconstruct regional paleo-climate conditions during the mid-Holocene in Greenland.
Peter Hoffmann, Vanessa Reinhart, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Edouard L. Davin, Christina Asmus, Benjamin Bechtel, Jürgen Böhner, Eleni Katragkou, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-252, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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This paper introduces the new high-resolution land-use land-cover change dataset LUCAS LUC historical and future land use and land cover change dataset (Version 1.0), tailored for use in regional climate models. Historical and projected future land use change information from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset is translated into annual plant functional type changes from 1950 to 2015 and 2016 to 2100, respectively, by employing a newly developed land use translator.
Gerd Schädler and Marcus Breil
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 231–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-231-2021, 2021
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We used regional climate networks (RCNs) to identify past heatwaves and droughts in Germany. RCNs provide information for whole areas and can provide many details of extreme events. The RCNs were constructed on the grid of the E-OBS data set. Time series correlation was used to construct the networks. Network metrics were compared to standard extreme indices and differed considerably between normal and extreme years. The results show that RCNs can identify severe and moderate extremes.
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 457–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, 2021
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This paper presents new estimates of future extreme weather in Europe, including extreme heat, extreme rainfall and meteorological drought. These new estimates were achieved by repeating model calculations many times, thereby reducing uncertainties of these rare events at low levels of global warming at 1.5 and 2 °C above
pre-industrial temperature levels. These results are important, as they help to assess which weather extremes could increase at moderate warming levels and where.
Charlotte Neubacher, Dirk Witthaut, and Jan Wohland
Adv. Geosci., 54, 205–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-205-2021, 2021
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In our study, we investigate the variability of potential offshore wind power over Europe on time scales of more than 10 years. Detailed spectral analysis of potential offshore wind power capacities over the last century indicates a strong coupling to large climate patterns such as the NAO. Furthermore, combining the wind power potential at the German North Sea and the Portuguese Atlantic coast shows that the variability can be mitigated.
Marcus Breil, Edouard L. Davin, and Diana Rechid
Biogeosciences, 18, 1499–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1499-2021, 2021
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The physical processes behind varying evapotranspiration rates in forests and grasslands in Europe are investigated in a regional model study with idealized afforestation scenarios. The results show that the evapotranspiration response to afforestation depends on the interplay of two counteracting factors: the transpiration facilitating characteristics of a forest and the reduced saturation deficits of forests caused by an increased surface roughness and associated lower surface temperatures.
Bettina Steuri, Tanja Blome, Katharina Bülow, Juliane El Zohbi, Peter Hoffmann, Juliane Petersen, Susanne Pfeifer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 9–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-9-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-9-2020, 2020
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The goal of an interdisciplinary team of scientists at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) was to make the findings of the special report IPCC SR1.5 more accessible to the citizens of Hamburg. Therefore, a flyer was created that is understandable to non-climate scientists, visually attractive and generates interest.
In this article, the authors provide insights into their teamwork, the underlying guiding principles as well as lessons learned that are of great value for future projects.
Edouard L. Davin, Diana Rechid, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Erika Coppola, Peter Hoffmann, Lisa L. Jach, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Kai Radtke, Mario Raffa, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Susanna Strada, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Tölle, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 183–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020, 2020
Jan Wohland, Nour Eddine Omrani, Noel Keenlyside, and Dirk Witthaut
Wind Energ. Sci., 4, 515–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-515-2019, 2019
Short summary
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Wind park planning and power system design require robust wind resource information. While most assessments are restricted to the last four decades, we use centennial reanalyses to study wind energy generation variability in Germany. We find that statistically significant multi-decadal variability exists. These long-term effects must be considered when planning future highly renewable power systems. Otherwise, there is a risk of inefficient system design and ill-informed investments.
Jan Wohland, Mark Reyers, Juliane Weber, and Dirk Witthaut
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1047–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017, 2017
Short summary
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Solar and wind energy generation are weather dependent and can not be switched on when needed. Despite this, stable electricity supply can be obtained by aggregation over large areas, for example Europe. However, we show that strong climate change impedes spatial balancing of electricity because countries are more likely to suffer from simultaneous generation shortfall. As a consequence, local scarcity can less often be balanced by imports.
Andreas Will, Naveed Akhtar, Jennifer Brauch, Marcus Breil, Edouard Davin, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Eric Maisonnave, Markus Thürkow, and Stefan Weiher
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1549–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1549-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1549-2017, 2017
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We present a coupled regional climate system model. The COSMO CLM regional climate model is two-way coupled via OASIS3-MCT to the land surface, regional ocean for the Mediterranean Sea, North and Baltic seas and an earth system model. The direct coupling costs of communication and horizontal interpolation are shown to be negligible even for a frequent exchange of 450 2-D fields. A procedure of finding an optimum processor configuration is presented and successfully applied to all couplings.
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Short summary
We evaluate how winds change when humans grow or cut down forests. Our analysis draws from climate model simulations with extreme scenarios where Europe is either fully forested or covered with grass. We find that the effect of land use change on wind energy is very important: wind energy potentials are twice as high above grass as compared to forest in some locations. Our results imply that wind profile changes should be better incorporated in climate change assessments for wind energy.
We evaluate how winds change when humans grow or cut down forests. Our analysis draws from...
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