Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1277-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1277-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 30 Sep 2024
| 30 Sep 2024
An enhanced Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought-monitoring method integrating land surface characteristics
Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
Justin Sheffield
School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
Zhongwang Wei
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
Michael Ek
Joint Numerical Testbed, Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Eric F. Wood
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
deceased
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Cited
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Characteristics of Meteorological Droughts Across Different Climatic Zones in Benin A. Bio Sidi D. Bouko et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050611
- ERA5-Land Data for Understanding Spring Dynamics in Complex Hydro-Meteorological Settings and for Sustainable Water Management L. Di Matteo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18020970
- Drought risk assessment and future scenario prediction in agricultural cropping zones of China X. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-025-0113-8
- Hybrid wavelet–ANN modelling for LAI forecasting under climatic variability: comparative case studies from the mediterranean basin Z. Aslan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-025-01761-9
- Agricultural drought dynamics in East Gojjam: Insights on soil moisture, drought indices, and crop sustainability W. Cherie & B. Asres https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102928
- Toward Regional Resilience: Multi-Scale Climate Variability and Atmospheric Teleconnections in Hunan, China J. Fu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18052631
- Uncertainty analysis of machine learning models for SPEI estimation in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea M. Mohammadi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07539-y
- DCSwinLSTM for spatiotemporal meteorological drought forecasting H. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.115902
- Reconstructed soil moisture droughts in Belgium reveal 2011–2020 was the driest decade since 1970 K. Lekarkar et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2817-2026
- Mapping field-scale daily evapotranspiration using unbiased spatio-temporal fusion approach over heterogeneous surface A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2026.2640260
- The impact of nonlinear surface energy partitioning on potential evapotranspiration: A machine learning study based on FLUXNET data W. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.111005
- CLUES A Comprehensive Workflow for Integrating Geospatial Data in Biomedical Research M. Jentsch et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73048-6
- How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe A. Shyrokaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb869
- NAR–SPEI–NARX Hybrid Forecasting Model for Soil Moisture Index (SMI) M. Todorov et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/a19040287
- Assessing the performance of multi-timescale drought indices for monitoring agricultural drought impacts on wheat yield M. Bozorgi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110092
- Improved two stage triangular fuzzy STARMA model for drought forecasting in Southern Telangana C. Preethi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134667
- Daily SPEI-based real-time hazard assessment for winter wheat drought: A multi-scale framework with remote sensing validation T. Gele et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2026.128233
- Non-stationary drought patterns in hyper-arid regions: Spatiotemporal and multi-timescale drought analysis M. Nikoo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180401
- Utility of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to detect agricultural droughts over China Y. Lu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102190
- FSPEI: a novel fractionally integrated drought index with an application to the Mediterranean Basin H. Tatli https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06393-7
- A hybrid machine learning and optimal stomatal behavior model to reveal the role of vegetation dynamics in potential evapotranspiration and drought W. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135446
- Rapid amplification of Compound Drought and Heatwave risk over India: a regime shift from arid northwest to humid southern and eastern hotspots D. Bhattacharjee & C. Dhanya https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-791-2026
- Constructing a precision-driven integrated agricultural drought monitoring index: navigating short-term climate variability in Karnataka N. Chandankumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06087-0
- Emerging technologies to multiscale drought risk assesment and modeling in the era of Big Earth Data and GeoAI A. Fentie & D. Mengistu https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-03879-2
- Enhancing crop production resilience: nonlinear modeling of agricultural risk using the crop cultivation risk index F. Rahmani https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01692-x
- Mapping spatiotemporal mortality patterns in spruce mountain forests using Sentinel-2 data and environmental factors M. Kluczek & B. Zagajewski https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103074
- Characteristics of spatial and temporal changes of drought in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin based on geodetector S. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1656424
- Multiscale drought assessment with analyzing agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological impacts multi-index approaches (1991–2021) M. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05494-z
- Predicting reference evapotranspiration in semi-arid regions using optimized machine learning models M. Eltarabily et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2025.853
- A deep learning-based composite agricultural drought index for monitoring and impact assessment in Central Asia X. Xing et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110043
- Cumulative and Lagged Drought Effects Shape Start and End of Season on the Mongolian Plateau Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16121814
- Beyond Conventional Methods: Predicting Novel Modified Groundwater Drought Indices with Advanced Computing Paradigms O. Katipoğlu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-025-03879-9
- High-Resolution Drought Detection Across Contrasting Climate Zones in China J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17071169
- Characterization of drought in the Arabian Peninsula: A multi-index approach G. Rahman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103250
- Spatial and temporal monitoring of drought in Northern Algeria using the SPEI index derived from ERA5 reanalysis data B. Habibi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06328-2
- Optimizing Agricultural Drought Monitoring in East Africa: Evaluating Integrated Soil Moisture and Vegetation Health Index (SM-VHI) A. Maniraho et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17213560
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Characteristics of Meteorological Droughts Across Different Climatic Zones in Benin A. Bio Sidi D. Bouko et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050611
- ERA5-Land Data for Understanding Spring Dynamics in Complex Hydro-Meteorological Settings and for Sustainable Water Management L. Di Matteo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18020970
- Drought risk assessment and future scenario prediction in agricultural cropping zones of China X. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-025-0113-8
- Hybrid wavelet–ANN modelling for LAI forecasting under climatic variability: comparative case studies from the mediterranean basin Z. Aslan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-025-01761-9
- Agricultural drought dynamics in East Gojjam: Insights on soil moisture, drought indices, and crop sustainability W. Cherie & B. Asres https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102928
- Toward Regional Resilience: Multi-Scale Climate Variability and Atmospheric Teleconnections in Hunan, China J. Fu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18052631
- Uncertainty analysis of machine learning models for SPEI estimation in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea M. Mohammadi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07539-y
- DCSwinLSTM for spatiotemporal meteorological drought forecasting H. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.115902
- Reconstructed soil moisture droughts in Belgium reveal 2011–2020 was the driest decade since 1970 K. Lekarkar et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2817-2026
- Mapping field-scale daily evapotranspiration using unbiased spatio-temporal fusion approach over heterogeneous surface A. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2026.2640260
- The impact of nonlinear surface energy partitioning on potential evapotranspiration: A machine learning study based on FLUXNET data W. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.111005
- CLUES A Comprehensive Workflow for Integrating Geospatial Data in Biomedical Research M. Jentsch et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73048-6
- How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe A. Shyrokaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb869
- NAR–SPEI–NARX Hybrid Forecasting Model for Soil Moisture Index (SMI) M. Todorov et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/a19040287
- Assessing the performance of multi-timescale drought indices for monitoring agricultural drought impacts on wheat yield M. Bozorgi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110092
- Improved two stage triangular fuzzy STARMA model for drought forecasting in Southern Telangana C. Preethi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134667
- Daily SPEI-based real-time hazard assessment for winter wheat drought: A multi-scale framework with remote sensing validation T. Gele et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2026.128233
- Non-stationary drought patterns in hyper-arid regions: Spatiotemporal and multi-timescale drought analysis M. Nikoo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180401
- Utility of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to detect agricultural droughts over China Y. Lu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102190
- FSPEI: a novel fractionally integrated drought index with an application to the Mediterranean Basin H. Tatli https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06393-7
- A hybrid machine learning and optimal stomatal behavior model to reveal the role of vegetation dynamics in potential evapotranspiration and drought W. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135446
- Rapid amplification of Compound Drought and Heatwave risk over India: a regime shift from arid northwest to humid southern and eastern hotspots D. Bhattacharjee & C. Dhanya https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-791-2026
- Constructing a precision-driven integrated agricultural drought monitoring index: navigating short-term climate variability in Karnataka N. Chandankumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06087-0
- Emerging technologies to multiscale drought risk assesment and modeling in the era of Big Earth Data and GeoAI A. Fentie & D. Mengistu https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-03879-2
- Enhancing crop production resilience: nonlinear modeling of agricultural risk using the crop cultivation risk index F. Rahmani https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01692-x
- Mapping spatiotemporal mortality patterns in spruce mountain forests using Sentinel-2 data and environmental factors M. Kluczek & B. Zagajewski https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103074
- Characteristics of spatial and temporal changes of drought in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin based on geodetector S. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1656424
- Multiscale drought assessment with analyzing agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological impacts multi-index approaches (1991–2021) M. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05494-z
- Predicting reference evapotranspiration in semi-arid regions using optimized machine learning models M. Eltarabily et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2025.853
- A deep learning-based composite agricultural drought index for monitoring and impact assessment in Central Asia X. Xing et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110043
- Cumulative and Lagged Drought Effects Shape Start and End of Season on the Mongolian Plateau Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16121814
- Beyond Conventional Methods: Predicting Novel Modified Groundwater Drought Indices with Advanced Computing Paradigms O. Katipoğlu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-025-03879-9
- High-Resolution Drought Detection Across Contrasting Climate Zones in China J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17071169
- Characterization of drought in the Arabian Peninsula: A multi-index approach G. Rahman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103250
- Spatial and temporal monitoring of drought in Northern Algeria using the SPEI index derived from ERA5 reanalysis data B. Habibi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06328-2
- Optimizing Agricultural Drought Monitoring in East Africa: Evaluating Integrated Soil Moisture and Vegetation Health Index (SM-VHI) A. Maniraho et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17213560
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 19 Jul 2026
Short summary
Integrating evaporative demand into drought indicators is effective, but the choice of method and the effectiveness of surface features remain undocumented. We evaluate various methods and surface features for predicting soil moisture dynamics. Using minimal ancillary information alongside meteorological and vegetation data, we develop a simple land-cover-based method that improves soil moisture drought predictions, especially in forests, showing promise for better real-time drought forecasting.
Integrating evaporative demand into drought indicators is effective, but the choice of method...
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