Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
10 Sep 2024
Review |
| 10 Sep 2024
| 10 Sep 2024
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
Viktoria Spaiser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Sirkku Juhola
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, 00790, Finland
Sara M. Constantino
Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305, United States
Weisi Guo
Centre for Autonomous and Cyberphysical Systems, Cranfield University, London, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
Tabitha Watson
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Jana Sillmann
Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society, Hamburg University, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Alessandro Craparo
International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Recta Cali-Palmira, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
Ashleigh Basel
Alliance Biodiversity-CIAT, Cape Town, 7600, South Africa
John T. Bruun
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Krishna Krishnamurthy
Meru Labs, Panama City, 0700, Panama
Jürgen Scheffran
Institute of Geography, Research Group Climate Change and Security, Hamburg University, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Patricia Pinho
Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Altamira, 68373-100, Brazil
Uche T. Okpara
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Kent, ME4 4TB, United Kingdom
Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Resilience Science Unit, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Avit Bhowmik
Risk and Environmental Studies, Karlstad University, Karlstad, 65188, Sweden
Taha Yasseri
School of Sociology, University College Dublin, Dublin, 8Q4G 8Q, Ireland
Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Dublin, D04 N9Y1, Ireland
Ricardo Safra de Campos
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Graeme S. Cumming
Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia
Hugues Chenet
IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 – LEM – Lille Economie Management, 59000 Lille, France
Florian Krampe
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm, 16972, Sweden
Jesse F. Abrams
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
James G. Dyke
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Stefanie Rynders
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
Yevgeny Aksenov
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
Bryan M. Spears
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, EH26 0QB, United Kingdom
Related authors
No articles found.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel global model that links farmer decisions with ecological processes to explore how agricultural systems co-evolve. Unlike previous tools, it captures feedbacks between society and nature at up-to planetary scale. We find that conservation practices can restore soil health and support stable harvests. Adoption spreads through learning and norms, showing how regeneration at the farm scale can ripple outward, contributing to global sustainability and Earth system resilience.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1365–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Social norms are a major influence on human behaviour. In natural resource use models, norms are often included in a simplistic way leading to “black or white” sustainability outcomes. We find that a dynamic representation of norms, including social groups, determines more nuanced states of the environment in a stylised model of resource use while also defining the success of attempts to manage the system, suggesting the importance of representing both aspects well in coupled models.
Maša Ann, Jörn Behrens, and Jana Sillmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3505, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new framework based on Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to better detect outliers and model extremes. Unlike standard DMD, which focuses on average system behavior, our approach targets rare, exceptional dynamics. Applied to climate data, it improves extreme event approximation and reveals meaningful spatio-temporal patterns. The method may generalize to other types of extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Tom Powell, Ashish Ghadiali, Ben Smith, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system tipping points pose existential threats requiring urgent action. However, this imperative should neither increase risks nor perpetuate injustices. We argue that considerations of what needs to change, who is asked to change, and where the impacts will be felt and by whom are fundamental questions that need to be addressed in decision-making. Everyone has a role to play in ensuring that justice and equity are incorporated into actions towards a more sustainable future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Timothy Tiggeloven, Colin Raymond, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jana Sillmann, Annegret H. Thieken, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Emma Cordier, Julia M. Crummy, Lydia Cumiskey, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Davide M. Ferrario, Wiebke S. Jäger, Elco E. Koks, Nicole van Maanen, Heather J. Murdock, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Benjamin Poschlod, Peter Priesmeier, Nivedita Sairam, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Tristian R. Stolte, Marie-Luise Zenker, James E. Daniell, Alexander Fekete, Christian M. Geiß, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Sirkku K. Juhola, Christian Kuhlicke, Karen Lebek, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, Cees J. van Westen, Judith N. Claassen, Bijan Khazai, Virginia Murray, Julius Schlumberger, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like floods, earthquakes, and landslides are often interconnected which may create bigger problems than when they occur alone. We studied expert discussions from an international conference to understand how scientists and policymakers can better prepare for these multi-hazards and use new technologies to protect its communities while contributing to dialogues about future international agreements beyond the Sendai Framework and supporting global sustainability goals.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1197–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To study tipping cascades in the climate–conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses transitions between conflict and cooperation. The Lake Chad case demonstrates climate change as a risk multiplier combined with poor governance, lowering resilience and barriers of communities to conflict. Adaptive and anticipative governance can prevent tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperation through civil conflict transformation and environmental peacebuilding.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nina Schuhen, Carley E. Iles, Marit Sandstad, Viktor Ananiev, and Jana Sillmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As climate changes, extremes are becoming increasingly frequent. We investigate the time of emergence for a large range of different extremes, meaning the earliest time when a significant change in these extremes can be detected beyond natural variability, whether in the past or in the future. The results based on 21 global climate models show considerable differences between regions, types of indices and emissions scenarios, as well as between temperature and precipitation extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Baylor Fox-Kemper, Patricia DeRepentigny, Anne Marie Treguier, Christian Stepanek, Eleanor O’Rourke, Chloe Mackallah, Alberto Meucci, Yevgeny Aksenov, Paul J. Durack, Nicole Feldl, Vanessa Hernaman, Céline Heuzé, Doroteaciro Iovino, Gaurav Madan, André L. Marquez, François Massonnet, Jenny Mecking, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Patrick C. Taylor, Wan-Ling Tseng, and Martin Vancoppenolle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3083, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The earth system model variables needed for studies of the ocean and sea ice are prioritized and requested.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can develop by enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea level rise). The likelihood of social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with the highest exposure to persistent risks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nadia Ameli, Hugues Chenet, Max Falkenberg, Sumit Kothari, Jamie Rickman, and Francesco Lamperti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Transitioning to a net-zero economy necessitates significant changes in the financial system. By promoting collective behaviour, aligning expectations, using public finance, reducing capital costs, and encouraging low-carbon investments, the financial system can play a crucial role in re-orienting economies onto a net-zero course. These mechanisms underscore the potential for positive tipping points in sustainable finance and stress the importance of policy interventions to capitalize on them.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 189–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A social tipping process is a large change in a social group that can be started by few people. Does the 80/20 rule apply here? We see if this is the case for human social groups. We find that, if the social conditions allow, change occurs when around 25 % of people engage. While tipping can happen between 10 % and 43 %, most cases tip by 40 %. However, tipping is not guaranteed: when people are resistant, trusted friend groups and context-appropriate messaging help the process along.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sibel Eker, Timothy M. Lenton, Tom Powell, Jürgen Scheffran, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 789–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cascading effects through cross-system interactions are one of the biggest promises of positive tipping points to create rapid climate and sustainability action. Here, we review these in terms of their interactions with sociotechnical systems such as energy, transport, agriculture, society, and policy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dag O. Hessen, Tom Andersen, David Armstrong McKay, Sarian Kosten, Mariana Meerhoff, Amy Pickard, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes worldwide are changing and under threat due to stressors such as overload of nutrients, increased input of organic carbon (“browning”), and climate change, which may cause reduced water volume, salinization, or even loss of waterbodies. Some of these changes are abrupt to the extent that they can be characterized as tipping points for that particular system. Such changes may also cause increased release of greenhouse gases, and lakes are major players in the global climate in this context.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura M. Pereira, Ignacio Gianelli, Therezah Achieng, Diva Amon, Sally Archibald, Suchinta Arif, Azucena Castro, Tapiwa Prosper Chimbadzwa, Kaera Coetzer, Tracy-Lynn Field, Odirilwe Selomane, Nadia Sitas, Nicola Stevens, Sebastian Villasante, Mohammed Armani, Duncan M. Kimuyu, Ibukun J. Adewumi, David M. Lapola, David Obura, Patricia Pinho, Felipe Roa-Clavijo, Juan Rocha, and U. Rashid Sumaila
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 341–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Narratives around tipping points, such as the need for
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
positivetipping points in energy transitions to avoid
negativeEarth system tipping points, do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed interventions could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people. We unpack these ideas in the context of what they mean for the concept of tipping points, using a critical decolonial view from the Global South.
Avit Bhowmik, Mark S. McCaffrey, and Oliver Kunkel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2588, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Triggering positive social tipping requires leverage points. Education can create action at scale and self-efficacy and initiate active hope to trigger positive tipping dynamics across societies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laurie Laybourn, Joseph Evans, and James Dyke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1171–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The worsening effects of climate change and other environmental problems impact the ability of societies to tackle the causes of these problems. We term this "derailment risk": the risk that the path to re-stabilising the natural world is derailed by the worsening instability of societies. But, conversely, instability can also provide opportunities for positive change. Acting on derailment risk is needed to ensure positive change can win out and so is critical for avoiding catastrophic outcomes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jennifer Williamson, Chris Evans, Bryan Spears, Amy Pickard, Pippa J. Chapman, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Fraser Leith, Susan Waldron, and Don Monteith
Biogeosciences, 20, 3751–3766, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Managing drinking water catchments to minimise water colour could reduce costs for water companies and save their customers money. Brown-coloured water comes from peat soils, primarily around upland reservoirs. Management practices, including blocking drains, removing conifers, restoring peatland plants and reducing burning, have been used to try and reduce water colour. This work brings together published evidence of the effectiveness of these practices to aid water industry decision-making.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Adam William Bateson, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Christopher Horvat
The Cryosphere, 17, 3575–3591, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is composed of small, discrete pieces of ice called floes, whose size distribution plays a critical role in the interactions between the sea ice, ocean and atmosphere. This study provides an assessment of sea ice models using new high-resolution floe size distribution observations, revealing considerable differences between them. These findings point not only to the limitations in models but also to the need for more high-resolution observations to validate and calibrate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Adam William Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 16, 2565–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are used to understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover. The sea ice cover is formed of pieces of ice called floes. Several recent studies have proposed variable floe size models to replace the standard model assumption of a fixed floe size. In this study we show the need to include floe fragmentation processes in these variable floe size models and demonstrate that model design can determine the impact of floe size on size ice evolution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vihma, Jouni Räisänen, Alexander Baklanov, Sergey Chalov, Igor Esau, Ekaterina Ezhova, Matti Leppäranta, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Jukka Pumpanen, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Jianhui Bai, Igor Bashmachnikov, Boris Belan, Federico Bianchi, Boris Biskaborn, Michael Boy, Jaana Bäck, Bin Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Jonathan Duplissy, Egor Dyukarev, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Martin Forsius, Martin Heimann, Sirkku Juhola, Vladimir Konovalov, Igor Konovalov, Pavel Konstantinov, Kajar Köster, Elena Lapshina, Anna Lintunen, Alexander Mahura, Risto Makkonen, Svetlana Malkhazova, Ivan Mammarella, Stefano Mammola, Stephany Buenrostro Mazon, Outi Meinander, Eugene Mikhailov, Victoria Miles, Stanislav Myslenkov, Dmitry Orlov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Roberta Pirazzini, Olga Popovicheva, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Torsten Sachs, Vladimir Shevchenko, Andrey Skorokhod, Andreas Stohl, Elli Suhonen, Erik S. Thomson, Marina Tsidilina, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Petteri Uotila, Aki Virkkula, Nadezhda Voropay, Tobias Wolf, Sayaka Yasunaka, Jiahua Zhang, Yubao Qiu, Aijun Ding, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Nikolay Kasimov, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4413–4469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We summarize results during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, especially from Russia, and introduce recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katja Weigel, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Kemisola Adeniyi, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Peter Berg, Louis-Philippe Caron, Irene Cionni, Susanna Corti, Niels Drost, Alasdair Hunter, Llorenç Lledó, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Aytaç Paçal, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Valeriu Predoi, Marit Sandstad, Jana Sillmann, Andreas Sterl, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3159–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents new diagnostics for the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The ESMValTool v2.0 diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with a focus on the ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Benjamin Poschlod, Ralf Ludwig, and Jana Sillmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 983–1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-983-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides a homogeneous data set of 10-year rainfall return levels based on 50 simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 (CRCM5). In order to evaluate its quality, the return levels are compared to those of observation-based rainfall of 16 European countries from 32 different sources. The CRCM5 is able to capture the general spatial pattern of observed extreme precipitation, and also the intensity is reproduced in 77 % of the area for rainfall durations of 3 h and longer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jennifer Williamson, Christopher Evans, Bryan Spears, Amy Pickard, Pippa J. Chapman, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Fraser Leith, and Don Monteith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-450, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Water companies in the UK have found that drinking water from upland reservoirs is becoming browner. This is costly to treat and if the dissolved organic matter that causes the colour isn't removed potentially harmful chemicals could be produced. Land management around reservoirs has been suggested as a way to reduce water colour. We reviewed the available literature to assess whether this would work. There is limited evidence available to date, although forestry appears to increase colour.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Aasen, M.: The polarization of public concern about climate change in Norway, Clim. Policy, 17, 213–230, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1094727, 2017.
Abou-Chadi, T. and Krause, W.: The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties' Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach, Brit. J. Pol. Sci., 50, 829–847, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123418000029, 2020.
Abrahams, D.: Conflict in Abundance and Peacebuilding in Scarcity: Challenges and Opportunities in Addressing Climate Change and Conflict, World Dev., 132, 104998, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104998, 2020.
Abrutyn, S.: Toward a General Theory of Anomie: The Social Psychology of Disintegration, Arch. Eur. Sociol, 60, 109–136, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003975619000043, 2019.
Achenbach, J.: Two mass killings a world apart share a common theme: “ecofascism”, The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2019.
Agius, C., Bergman Rosamond, A., and Kinnvall, C.: Populism, Ontological Insecurity and Gendered Nationalism: Masculinity, Climate Denial and Covid-19, Polit. Relig. Ideol., 21, 432–450, https://doi.org/10.1080/21567689.2020.1851871, 2020.
Aïmeur, E., Amri, S., and Brassard, G.: Fake news, disinformation and misinformation in social media: a review, Soc. Netw. Anal. Min, 13, 30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13278-023-01028-5, 2023.
Akinbami, C. A. O.: Migration and Climate Change Impacts on Rural Entrepreneurs in Nigeria: A Gender Perspective, Sustainability, 13, 8882, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13168882, 2021.
Alexander, M., Forastiere, L., Gupta, S., and Christakis, N. A.: Algorithms for seeding social networks can enhance the adoption of a public health intervention in urban India, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2120742119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120742119, 2022.
Ameli, N., Chenet, H., Falkenberg, M., Kothari, S., Rickman, J., and Lamperti, F.: Driving sustainability transitions through financial tipping points, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1750, 2023.
Anderson, W., Taylor, C., McDermid, S., Ilboudo-Nébié, E., Seager, R., Schlenker, W., Cottier, F., de Sherbinin, A., Mendeloff, D., and Markey, K. Violent conflict exacerbated drought-related food insecurity between 2009 and 2019 in sub-Saharan Africa, Nat. Food, 2, 603–615, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00327-4, 2021.
Andreoni, J., Nikiforakis, N., and Siegenthaler, S..: Predicting social tipping and norm change in controlled experiments, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e201489311, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014893118, 2021.
Aquino, G., Guo, W., and Wilson A.: Nonlinear Dynamic Models of Conflict via Multiplexed Interaction Networks, arXiV, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1909.12457, 2019.
Argyle, L. P., Busby, E. C., Fulda, N., Gubler, J. R., Rytting, C., and Wingate, D.: Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples, Polit. Anal., 31, 337–351, https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2023.2, 2023.
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022.
Atwoli, L., Muhia, J., and Merali, Z.: Mental health and climate change in Africa, BJPsych. Int., 19, 86–89, https://doi.org/10.1192/bji.2022.14, 2022.
Ausloos, M. and Dirickx, M. (Eds.): The Logistic Map and the Route to Chaos. From the Beginnings to Modern Applications, Springer, Berlin, Germany, https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-32023-7, 2006.
Baele, S., Brace, L., and Ging, D.: A Diachronic Cross-Platforms Analysis of Violent Extremist Language in the Incel Online Ecosystem, Terror. Polit. Violenc., 36, 382–405, https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2022.2161373, 2023.
Battiston, S., Mandel, A., Monasterolo, I., Schütze, F., and Visentin, G.: A climate stress-test of the financial system, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 283–288, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3255, 2017.
BenDor, T. and Scheffran, J.: Agent-Based Modeling of Environmental Conflict and Cooperation, CRC Press, Boca Raton, 363 pp., https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351106252, 2019.
Benegal, S. and Holman, M.R.: Understanding the importance of sexism in shaping climate denial and policy opposition, Climatic Change, 167, 48, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03193-y, 2021.
Benso, M. R., Gesualdo, G. C., Silva, R. F., Silva, G. J., Castillo Rápalo, L. M., Navarro, F. A. R., Marques, P. A. A., Marengo, J. A., and Mendiondo, E. M.: Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023.
Bentley, R. A., Maddison, E. J., Ranner, P. H., Bissell, J., Caiado, C. C., Bhatanacharoen, P., Clark, T., Botha, M., Akinbami, F., Hollow, M., and Michie, R.: Social tipping points and Earth systems dynamics, Front. Environ. Sci., 2, 35, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035, 2014.
Benton, T., Fairweather, D., Graves, A., Harris, J., Jones, A., Lenton, T., Norman, R., O'Riordan, T., Pope, E., and Tiffin, R.: Environmental tipping points and food system dynamics: Main Report, The Global Food Security Programme, https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/publications/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2017.
Berberian, A. G., Gonzalez, D. J. X., and Cushing, L. J.: Racial Disparities in Climate Change-Related Health Effects in the United States, Curr. Environ. Health. Rpt., 9, 451–464, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40572-022-00360-w, 2022.
Berlemann, M. and Tran, T.X.: Climate-Related Hazards and Internal Migration Empirical Evidence for Rural Vietnam, Econ. Dis. Clim. Cha., 4, 385–409, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-020-00062-3, 2020.
Boas, I., Wiegel, H., Farbotko, C, Warner, J., and Sheller, M.: Climate mobilities: migration, im/mobilities and mobility regimes in a changing climate, J. Ethn. Migr. Stud., 48, 3365–3379, https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2022.2066264, 2022.
Boulton, C. A., Buxton, J. E., Arellano-Nova, B., Battiany, S., Blaschke, L., Boers, N., Dakos, V., Dylewsky, D., Kefi, S., Lopez-Martinez, C., Parry, I., Ritchie, P., van der Bolt, B., van der Laan, L., and Weinans, E.: Early warning signals of Earth system tipping points, in: Global Tipping Points Report, edited by: Lenton, T. M., Amrstrong McKay, D. I., Loriani, S., Abrams, S. J., Lade, S. J., Donges, J. F., Milkoreit, M., Powell, T., Smith, S. R., Zimm, C., Buxton, J. E., Bailey, E., Laybourn, L., Ghadiali, A., and Dyke, J. G., https://global-tipping-points.org/section1/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2023.
Branch, A., Phillips, J., and Agyei, F. K.: Charcoal politics in Africa: Value chains, resource complexes, and energopolitics, Prog. Environ. Geogr., 2, 77–96, https://doi.org/10.1177/27539687231165798, 2023.
Brännlund, A. and Peterson, L.: Power politics: How electric grievances shape election outcomes, Ecol. Econ., 217, 108077, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108077, 2024.
Brown, A. R.: Environmental anomie and the disruption of physical norms during disaster, Curr. Sociol., 72, 407–423, https://doi.org/10.1177/00113921221129316, 2022.
Bruun, J., Allen, J. I., and Smyth, T. J.: Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances, JGR Oceans, 122, 6746–6772, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012892, 2017.
Buhaug, H.: Climate not to blame for African civil wars, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 16477–16482, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1005739107, 2010.
Buhaug, H. and von Uexkull, N.: Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 46, 545–568, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708, 2021.
Buhaug, H., Nordkvelle, J., Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., Brzoska, M., Busby, J. W., Ciccone, A., Fjelde, H., Gartzke, E., Gleditsch, N. P., Goldstone, J. A., Hegre, H., Holdermann, H., Koubi, V., Link, J. S. A., Link, P. M., Lujala, P., O’Loughlin, J., Raleigh, C., Scheffran, J., Schilling, J., Smith, T. G., Theisen, O. M., Tol, R. S. J., Urdal, H., and von Uexkull, N.: One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict, Clim, Change, 127, 391–397, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1, 2014.
Burden, B. C., Fletcher, J. M., Herd, P., Jones, B. M., and Moynihan, D. P.: How Different Forms of Health Matter to Political Participation, J. Polit, 79, 166–178, https://doi.org/10.1086/687536, 2017.
Burgess, M. G., Van Boven, L., Wagner, G., Wong-Parodi, G., Baker, K., Boykoff, M., Converse, B. A., Dilling, L., Gilligan, J. M., Inbar, Y., Markowitz, E., Moyer, J. D., Newton, P., Raimi, K. T., Shrum, T., and Vandenbergh, M. P.: Supply, demand and polarization challenges facing US climate policies, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 134–142, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01906-y, 2024.
Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A., and Lobell, D. B.: Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 20670–20674, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907998106, 2009.
Burns, J. K.: Poverty, inequality and a political economy of mental health, Epidemiol. Psychiatr. Sci., 24, 107–113, https://doi.org/10.1017/S2045796015000086, 2015
Bursztyn, L., Egorov, G., and Fiorin, S.: From Extreme to Mainstream: The Erosion of Social Norms, Am. Econ. Rev., 110, 3522–3548, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20171175, 2020.
Bury, T. M., Sujith, R. I., Pavithran, I., and Bauch, C. T.: Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2106140118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2106140118, 2021.
Busching, R. and Krahé, B.: The Contagious Effect of Deviant Behavior in Adolescence: A Longitudinal Multilevel Study, Soc. Psychol. Pers. Sci., 9, 815–824, https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550617725151, 2018.
Bygnes, S.: Are They Leaving Because of the Crisis? The Sociological Significance of Anomie as a Motivation for Migration, Sociology, 51, 258–273, https://doi.org/10.1177/0038038515589300, 2017.
Caldecott, B., Clark, A., Koskelo, K., Mulholland, E., and Hickey, C.: Stranded Assets: Environmental Drivers, Societal Challenges, and Supervisory Responses, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour, 46, 417–447, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-101430, 2021.
Carleton, T. A.: Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 8746–8751, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701354114, 2017
Carlisle, K. and Gruby, R.L.: Polycentric Systems of Governance: A Theoretical Model for the Commons, Policy Stud. J., 47, 927–952, https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12212, 2019.
Casas-Prat, M. and Wang, X. L.: Projections of extreme ocean waves in the Arctic and potential implications for coastal inundation and erosion, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 125, e2019JC015745, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015745, 2020.
Center for Countering Digital Hate, Quant Lab: The New Climate Denial – How social media platforms and content producers profit by spreading new forms of climate denial, Report, https://counterhate.com/research/new-climate-denial/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2023.
Chenet, H.: Climate change and biodiversity loss: new territories for financial authorities, Curr. Opin. Env. Sust., 68, 101449, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101449, 2024.
Chinazzi, M. and Fagiolo, G.: Chinazzi, M. and Fagiolo, G.: Banking Integration and Financial Crisis: Some Recent Developments, edited by: Fernández, I. A. and Tortosa, E., Fundación BBVA, 115–157, ISBN 9788492937608, 2015.
Clarke, E. J. R., Ling, M., Kothe, E. J., Klas, A., and Richardson, B.: Mitigation system threat partially mediates the effects of right-wing ideologies on climate change beliefs, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 49, 349–360, https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.12585, 2019.
Clayton, S., Manning, C. M., Krygsman, K. and Speiser, M.: Mental Health and Our Changing Climate: Impacts, Implications, and Guidance, American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica, https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/2017/03/mental-health-climate.pdf (last access: 7 September 2024), 2017.
Cole, J. C., Gillis, A., Linden, S. V. D., Cohen, M., and Vandenbergh, M.: Social Psychological Perspectives on Political Polarization: Insights and Implications for Climate Change, PsyArXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/xz6w, 2023.
Constantino, S. M., Sparkman, G., Kraft-Todd, G. T., Bicchieri, C., Centola, D., Shell-Duncan, B., Vogt, S., and Weber, E. U.: Scaling Up Change: A Critical Review and Practical Guide to Harnessing Social Norms for Climate Action, Psychol. Sci. Publ. Int., 23, 50–97, https://doi.org/10.1177/15291006221105279, 2022.
Crawford, N.: Pentagon fuel use: climate change and the costs of war, Watson Institute International and Public Affairs, Brown University, https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/papers/ClimateChangeandCostofWar (last access: 7 September 2024), 2019.
Czarnek, G., Kossowska, M., and Szwed, P.: Right-wing ideology reduces the effects of education on climate change beliefs in more developed countries, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 9–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00930-6, 2021.
Dafermos, Y., Nikolaidi, M., and Galanis, G.: Climate change, financial stability and monetary policy, Ecol. Econ., 152, 219–234, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.05.011, 2018.
Daggett, C.: Petro-masculinity: Fossil fuels and authoritarian desire, Millennium, 47, 25–44, https://doi.org/10.1177/0305829818775817, 2018.
Dakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., van Nes, E. H., and Scheffer, M.: Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 370, 20130263, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0263, 2015.
Dakos, V., Boulton, C. A., Buxton, J. E., Abrams, J. F., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Bathiany, S., Blaschke, L., Boers, N., Dylewsky, D., López-Martínez, C., Parry, I., Ritchie, P., van der Bolt, B., van der Laan, L., Weinans, E., and Kéfi, S.: Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773, 2023.
Daoudy, M.: Rethinking the Climate–Conflict Nexus: A Human–Environmental–Climate Security Approach, Glob. Environ. Polit., 21, 4–25, https://doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00609, 2021.
Daoudy, M., Sowers, J., and Weinthal, E.: What is climate security? Framing risks around water, food, and migration in the Middle East and North Africa, WIREs Water, 9, e1582, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1582, 2022.
Darian-Smith, E.: Entangled Futures: Big Oil, Political Will, and the Global Environmental Movement, Perspect. Glob. Dev., 21, 403–425, https://doi.org/10.1163/15691497-12341640, 2023.
de Klerk, L., Shmurak, A., Gassan-Zade, O., Shlapak, M., Tomliak, K., and Korthuis, A.: Climate Damage Caused by Russia's War in Ukraine, Report, Climatefocus, https://climatefocus.com/wp-content/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2022.
De La Sablonnière, R. and Taylor, D. M.: A social change framework for addressing collective action: introducing collective inertia, Curr. Opin. Psychol., 35, 65–70, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2020.03.006, 2020.
Denton, F: Climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation: Why does gender matter?, Gend. Dev., 10, 10–20, https://doi.org/10.1080/13552070215903, 2002.
Devaney, L., Torney, D., Brereton, P., and Coleman, M.: Ireland's citizens' assembly on climate change: Lessons for deliberative public engagement and communication, Environ. Commun., 14, 141–146, https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2019.1708429, 2020.
Dietz, S., Rising, J., Stoerk, T., and Wagner, G.: Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2103081118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2103081118, 2021
Dodds, P. S., and Watts, D. J.: Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion, Phys. Rev. Lett., 92, 218701, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.218701, 2004.
Doerr, S., Gissler, S., Peydró, J.-L., and Voth, H.-J.: Financial Crises and Political Radicalization: How Failing Banks Paved Hitler's Path to Power, J. Finance, 77, 3339–3372, https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13166, 2022
Donaghy, T. Q., Healy, N., Jiang, C. Y., and Battle, C. P.: Fossil fuel racism in the United States: How phasing out coal, oil, and gas can protect communities, Energ. Res. Soc. Sci., 100, 103104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103104, 2023.
Douglas, P. M. J., Demarest, A. A., Brenner, M., and Canuto, M. A.: Impacts of Climate Change on the Collapse of Lowland Maya Civilization, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 44, 613–645, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012512, 2016.
Dunlap, R. E., McCright, A. M., and Yarosh, J. H.: The Political Divide on Climate Change: Partisan Polarization Widens in the U.S. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 58, 4–23, https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2016.1208995, 2016.
Durkheim, E.: De La Division du Travail Social, Presse Universitaires de France, Les Presses universitaires de France, Paris, 1893.
Durkheim, E.: Le Suicide, Étude de sociologie, Félix Alcan, Paris, 1897.
Ehret, S., Constantino, S. M., Weber, E. U., Efferson, C., and Vogt, S.: Group identities can undermine social tipping after intervention, Nat. Hum. Behav, 6, 1669–1679, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01440-5, 2022.
Ekberg, K., Forchtner, B., Hultman, M., and Julhä, K.: Climate Obstruction, How Denial, Delay and Inaction are Heating the Planet, Routledge, 156 pp., https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003181132, 2023.
Falkenberg, M., Galeazzi, A., Torricelli, M., Di Marco, N., Larosa, F., Sas, M., Mekacher, A., Pearce, W., Zollo, F., Quattrociocchi, W., and Baronchelli, A.: Growing polarization around climate change on social media, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 1114–112, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01527-x, 2022.
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO: The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022, Repurposing food and agricultural policies to make healthy diets more affordable, Rome, FAO, https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0639en, 2022.
Farrell, J.: Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 92–97, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1509433112, 2016.
Feigenbaum, M. J.: Universal Behaviour in Nonlinear Systems, in: Universality in Chaos, 2nd Edn., edited by: Cvitanović, P., Taylor & Francis Group, ISBN 100852742606, 1980.
Fehr, E., Fischbacher, U., and Gächter, S.: Strong reciprocity, human cooperation, and the enforcement of social norms, Hum. Nat., 13, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12110-002-1012-7, 2002.
Ferrara, E.: Contagion dynamics of extremist propaganda in social networks, Inf. Sci., 418/419, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2017.07.030, 2017.
Ferreira, M. A. M., Leite, Y. L. R., Junior, C. C., and Vicente, C. R.: Impact of climate change on public health in Brazil, Public Health Challenges, 2, e62, https://doi.org/10.1002/puh2.62, 2023.
Ferris, E. and Weerasinghe, S.: Promoting human security: Planned relocation as a protection tool in a time of climate change, J. Migrat. Human Secur., 8, 134–149, https://doi.org/10.1177/2331502420909305, 2020.
FEWS NET: Famine Early Warning Systems Network, Data, https://fews.net (last access: 7 September 2024), 2018.
Filatova, T., Verburg, P. H., Parker, D. C., and Stannard, C. A.: Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: Challenges and prospects, Environ. Model. Softw., 45, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.03.017, 2013.
Fink, C., Schmidt, A., Barash, V., Kelly, J., Cameron, C., and Macy, M.: Investigating the Observability of Complex Contagion in Empirical Social Networks, Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 10, 121–130, https://doi.org/10.1609/icwsm.v10i1.14751, 2021.
Flache, A., Mäs, M., Feliciani, T., Chattoe-Brown, E., Deffuant, G., Huet, S., and Lorenz, J.: Models of social influence: Towards the next frontiers, JASSS, 20, 2, https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.3521, 2017.
Flores, A., Cole, J.C., Dickert, S., Eom, K., Jiga-Boy, G.M., Kogut, T., Loria, R., Mayorga, M., Pedersen, E.J., Pereira, B. and Rubaltelli, E.: Politicians polarize and experts depolarize public support for COVID-19 management policies across countries. P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2117543119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2117543119, 2022.
Ford, J. D., Clark, D. G., Copland, L., and Peace, T.: IHACC Research Team and Harper, S. L.: Projected decrease in trail access in the Arctic, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 23, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00685-w, 2023.
Frank, T.: Climate Change Is Destabilizing Insurance Industry. Scientific American, E&E News, https://www.scientificamerican.com/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2023.
Franzke, C. L. E., Ciullo, A., Gilmore, E. A., Matias, D.M., Nagabhatla, N., Orlov, A., Paterson, S. K., Scheffran, J., and Sillmann, J.: Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: cascading effects and telecoupling, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 15004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac42fd, 2022.
Fritsche, I., Cohrs, J. C., Kessler, T., and Bauer, J.: Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies, J. Environ. Psychol., 32, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2011.10.002, 2012.
Funke, M., Schularick, M., and Trebesch, C.: Going to extremes: Politics after financial crises, 1870–2014, Eur. Econ. Rev., 88, 227–260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.03.006, 2016.
Gadarian, S. K.: The Politics of Threat: How Terrorism News Shapes Foreign Policy Attitudes, J. Politics, 72, 469–483, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609990910, 2010.
Gai, P. and Kapadia, S.: Contagion in Financial Networks, Bank of England Working Paper No. 383, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1577043, 2010.
Gaikwad, M., Ahirrao S., Kotecha, K., and Abraham, A.: Multi-Ideology Multi-Class Extremism Classification Using Deep Learning Techniques, IEEE Access., 10, 104829–104843, https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3205744, 2022.
Gaupp, F., Constantino, S., and Pereira, L.: The role of agency in social tipping processes, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1533, 2023.
Ge, Q., Hao, M., Ding, F., Jiang, D., Scheffran, J., Helman, D., and Ide, T.: Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data, Nat. Commun., 13, 2839, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30356-x, 2022.
Giannini, A., Krishnamurthy, P. K., Cousin, R., Labidi, N., and Choularton, R. J.: Climate risk and food security in Mali: A historical perspective on adaptation, Earth's Future, 5, 144–157, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000404, 2017.
Gioli, G., Hugo, G., Máñez Costa, M., and Scheffran, J.: Human mobility, climate adaptation, and development, Migr. Dev., 5, 165–170, https://doi.org/10.1080/21632324.2015.1096590, 2016.
Goldberg, R. F. and Vandenberg, L. N.: Distract, delay, disrupt: examples of manufactured doubt from five industries, Rev. Environ. Health, 34, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.1515/reveh-2019-0004, 2019.
Green, J., Druckman, J. N., Baum, M. A., Lazer, D., Ognyanova, K., and Perlis, R. H.: Depressive symptoms and conspiracy beliefs, Appl. Cogn. Psychol, 37, 332–359. https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.4011, 2023.
Grimm, S. and Schneider, G.: Predicting Social Tipping Points. Current Research and the way forward. Discussion Paper, German Development Institute, https://www.idos-research.de/en/discussion-paper/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2011.
Groundstroem, F. and Juhola, S.: Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems, Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change, 26, 29, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09967-0, 2021.
Guastello, S. J.: Chaos and conflict: Recognizing patterns, Emerg.: Complex. Organ, https://journal.emergentpublications.com/Article/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2008.
Guégan, D.: Chaos in Economics and Finance, Annu. Rev. Control., 33, 89–93, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.arcontrol.2009.01.002, 2009
Guilbeault, D., Becker, J., and Centola, D.: Complex Contagions: A Decade in Review, in: Complex Spreading Phenomena in Social Systems, edited by: Lehmann, S. and Ahn, Y., Springer Nature, 3–25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77332-2, 2018.
Guilbeault, D. and Centola, D.: Topological measures for identifying and predicting the spread of complex contagions, Nat. Commun., 12, 4430, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24704-6, 2021.
Guo, W., Gleditsch, K., and Wilson, A.: Retool AI to Forecast and Limit Wars, Nature, 562, 331–333, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-07026-4, 2018.
Guo, W., Sun, S., and Wilson, A.: Exploring Potential Causal Models for Climate-Society-Conflict Interaction, Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Complexity, Future Information Systems and Risk – COMPLEXIS, 69–76, https://doi.org/10.5220/0011968400003485, 2023.
Gustafson, A., Rosenthal, S. A., Ballew, M. T., Goldberg, M. H., Bergquist, P., Kotcher, J. E., Maibach, E. W., and Leiserowitz, A.: The development of partisan polarization over the Green New Deal, Nat. Clim. Chane, 9, 940–944, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0621-7, 2019.
Haldane, A. and May, R.: Systemic risk in banking ecosystems, Nature, 469, 351–355, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09659, 2011.
Halikiopoulou, D.: A Right-wing Populist Momentum: A Review of 2017 Elections across Europe, J. Common Mark. Stud., 56, 63–73, https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12769, 2018.
Hamideh, S., Sen, P., and Fischer, E.: Wildfire impacts on education and healthcare: Paradise, California, after the Camp Fire, Nat. Hazards, 111, 353–387, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05057-1, 2022.
Hangartner, D., Gennaro, G., Alasiri, S., Bahrich, N., Bornhoft, A., Boucher, J., Demirci, B. B., Derksen, L., Hall, A., Jochum, M., and Munoz, M. M.: Empathy-based counterspeech can reduce racist hate speech in a social media field experiment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2116310118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2116310118, 2021.
Hanson, T.: Biodiversity conservation and armed conflict: a warfare ecology perspective, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1429, 50–65, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13689, 2018
Haraldsson, H. V.: Introduction to System Thinking and Causal Loop Diagrams, Lund University, Sweden, Reports in Ecology and Environmental Engineering, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hoerdur-Haraldsson/publication/258261003_Introduction_to_system_thinking_and_causal_loop_diagrams/links/5bcceed6458515f7d9d01e81/Introduction-to-system-thinking-and-causal-loop-diagrams.pdfhttps://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hoerdur-Haraldsson/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2004.
Hauer, M. E., Fussell, E., Mueller, V., Burkett, M., Call, M., Abel, K., McLeman, R. and Wrathall, D.: Sea-level rise and human migration, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 28–39, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-019-0002-9, 2020.
Hawkins, R. L. and Maurer, K.: “You fix my community, you have fixed my life”: the disruption and rebuilding of ontological security in New Orleans, Disasters, 35, 143–159, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2010.01197.x, 2011.
Hessen, D. O., Andersen, T., Armstrong McKay, D., Kosten, S., Meerhoff, M., Pickard, A., and Spears, B. M.: Lake ecosystem tipping points and climate feedbacks, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024, 2024.
Hetherington, M. J. and Suhay, E.: Authoritarianism, Threat, and Americans' Support for the War on Terror, Am. J. Pol. Sci., 55, 546–560, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00514.x, 2011.
Hickman, C., Marks, E., Pihkala, P., Clayton, S., Lewandowski, R. E., Mayall, E. E., Wray, B., Mellor, C., and Van Susteren, L.: Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey, Lancet Planet. Health, 5, e863–e873, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00278-3, 2021.
Hirsch, M.: Becoming authoritarian for the greater good? Authoritarian attitudes in context of the societal crises of COVID-19 and climate change, Front. Polit. Sci., 4, 929991, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2022.929991, 2022.
Hirsch, M. W., Smale, S., and Devaney, R. L.: Differential Equations, Dynamical Systems, and an Introduction to Chaos, 3rd Edn., Elsevier, https://doi.org/10.1016/C2009-0-61160-0, 2012.
Hoffarth, M. R. and Hodson, G.: Green on the outside, red on the inside: Perceived environmentalist threat as a factor explaining political polarization of climate change, J. Environ. Psychol., 45, 40–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2015.11.002, 2016.
Hoffmann, R., Šedová, B., and Vinke, K.: Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature, Glob. Environ. Change, 71, 102367, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102367, 2021.
Hornsey, M., Harris, E., Bain, P., and Fielding, K. S.: Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 622–626, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2943, 2016.
Hübscher, E., Sattler, T., and Wagner, M.: Does Austerity Cause Polarization?, Brit. J. Pol. Sci., 53, 1170–1188, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123422000734, 2023.
Huddy, L. and Feldmann, S.: Americans respond politically to 9/11: Understanding the impact of the terrorist attacks and their aftermath, Am. Psychol., 66, 455–467, https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024894, 2011.
Huggel, C., Bouwer, L.M., Juhola, S., Mechler, R., Muccione, V., Orlove, B., and Wallimann-Helmer, I.: The existential risk space of climate change, Clim. Change, 174, 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03430-y, 2022.
Ide, T., Johnson, M. F., Barnett, J., Krampe, F., Le Billon, P., Maertens, L., von Uexkull, N., and Vélez-Torres, I.: The Future of Environmental Peace and Conflict Research, Environ. Polit., 32, 1077–1103, https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2022.2156174, 2023.
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1017/97810093258442022, 2022.
Irrgang, A. M., Bendixen, M., Farquharson, L. M., Baranskaya, A. V., Erikson, L. H., Gibbs, A. E., Ogorodov, S. A., Overduin, P. P., Lantuit, H., Grigoriev, M. N., and Jones, B. M.: Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, 39–54, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00232-1, 2022.
Islam, R., Schech, S., and Saikia, U.: Climate change events in the Bengali migration to the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) in Bangladesh, Clim. Dev., 13, 375–385, https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1780191, 2021.
Jackson, J. C., van Egmond, M., Choi, V. K., Ember, C. R., Halberstadt, J., Balanovic, J., Basker, I. N., Boehnke, K., Buki, N., Fischer, R., Fulop, M., Fulmer, A., Homan, A. C., van Kleef, G. A., Kreemers, L., Schei, V., Szabo, E., Ward, C., and Gelfand, J.: Ecological and cultural factors underlying the global distribution of prejudice, PLoS ONE, 14, e0221953, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0221953, 2019.
Jermacane, D., Waite, T. D., Beck, C. R., Bone, A., Amlôt, R., Reacher, M., Kovats, S., Armstrong, B., Leonardi, G., James Rubin, G., and Oliver, I.: The English National Cohort Study of Flooding and Health: the change in the prevalence of psychological morbidity at year two, BMC Public Health, 18, 330, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-018-5236-9, 2018.
Juhola, S., Filatova, T., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Mechler, R., Scheffran, J., and Schweizer, P.-J.: Social Tipping Points and Adaptation Limits in the Context of Systemic Risk: Concepts, Models and Governance, Front. Clim., 4, 1009234, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.1009234, 2022.
Julhä, K. M. and Hellmer, K.: Right-wing populism and climate change denial: The roles of exclusionary and anti-egalitarian preferences, conservative ideology, and antiestablishment attitudes, Anal. Soc. Iss. Publ. Pol., 20, 315–335, https://doi.org/10.1111/asap.12203, 2020.
Karsai, M., Iñiguez, G., Kaski, K., and Kerteìsz, J.: Complex contagion process in spreading of online innovation, J. R. Soc. Interf., 11, 20140694, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2014.0694, 2014.
Kaczan, D. J. and Orgill-Meyer, J.: The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights, Climatic Change, 158, 281–300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0, 2020.
Kedward, K., Ryan-Collins, J., and Chenet, H.: Biodiversity loss and climate change interactions: financial stability implications for central banks and financial supervisors, Clim. Policy, 23, 763–781, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2107475, 2023.
Keen, S., Lenton, T. M., Garrett, T. J., and Grasselli, M.: Estimates of economic and environmental damages from tipping points cannot be reconciled with the scientific literature, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2117308119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2117308119, 2022.
Kelley, C. P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M. A., Seager, R., and Kushnir, Y.: Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 3241–3246, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421533112, 2015.
Kester, J. and Sovacool, B. K.: Torn between war and peace: Critiquing the use of war to mobilize peaceful climate action, Energ. Policy, 104, 50–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.026, 2017
Kimmel, M.: Healing from Hate: How Young Men Get Into – and Out of – Violent Extremism, University of California Press, ISBN 0520292634, 2018.
Kiyotaki, N. and Moore, J.: Balance-sheet contagion, Am. Econ. Rev., 92, 46–50, https://doi.org/10.1257/000282802320188989, 2002.
Klose, A. K., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., and Donges, J. F.: What do we mean,`tipping cascade'?, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 125011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955, 2021.
Kolmes, S. A.: The Social Feedback Loop, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 50, 57–58, https://doi.org/10.3200/ENVT.50.2.57-58, 2008.
Kornhuber, K., Lesk, C., Schleussner, C. F., Jägermeyr, J., Pfleiderer, P., and Horton, R. M.: Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nat. Commun., 14, 3528, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7, 2023
Koubi, V.: Climate Change and Conflict, Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci, 22, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-070830, 2019.
Kousser, T. and Tranter, B.: The influence of political leaders on climate change attitudes, Glob. Environ. Change, 50, 100–109, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.03.005, 2018.
Krishnamurthy, R. P. K., Fisher, J. B., Schimel, D. S., and Kareiva, P. M.: Applying tipping point theory to remote sensing science to improve early warning drought signals for food security, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001456, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001456, 2020
Krishnamurthy, R. P. K., Fisher, J. B., Choularton, R. J., and Kareiva, P. M.: Anticipating drought-related food security changes, Nat. Sustain, 5, 956–964, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00962-0, 2022.
Krönke, J., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Staal, A., Stumpf, B., Tuinenburg, O. A., and Donges, J. F.: Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks, Phys. Rev. E, 101, 042311, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311, 2020.
Lama, P., Homza, M., and Wester, M.: Gendered dimensions of migration in relation to climate change, Clim. Dev., 13, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1772708, 2021.
Lamb, W. F., Mattioli, G., Levi, S., Roberts, J. T., Capstick, S., Creutzig, F., Minx, J. C., Müller-Hansen, F., Culhane, T., and Steinberger, J. K.: Discourses of climate delay, Glob. Sustain., 3, e17, https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2020.13, 2020.
Lamperti, F., Bosetti, V., Roventini, A., and Tavoni, M.: The public costs of climate-induced financial instability, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 829–833, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0607-5, 2019.
Lawrence, E., Thompson, R., Fontana, G., and Jennings, N.: The impact of climate change on mental health and emotional wellbeing: current evidence and implications for policy and practice, Graham Institute & Institute for Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London, Institute for Global Health Innovation and Graham Institute, Nr. 36, https://doi.org/10.25561/88568, 2021.
Laybourn, L., Evans, J., and Dyke, J.: Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition, Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1171–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023, 2023.
Layton, M. L., Smith, A. E., Moseley, M. W., and Cohen, M. J.: Demographic polarization and the rise of the far right: Brazil's 2018 presidential election, Res. Poli., 8, 7 pp., https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168021990204, 2021.
Lenton, T. M.: Tipping positive change, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 375, 20190123, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0123, 2020.
Lenton, T. M., Benson, S., Smith, T., Ewer, T., Lanel, V., Petykowski, E., Powell, T. W. R, Abrams, J. F., Blomsma, F., and Sharpe, S.: Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability, Glob. Sustain., 5, e1, https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.30, 2022.
Lenton, T. M., Xu, C., Abrams, J. F., Ghadiali, A., Loriani, S., Sakschewski, B., Zimm, C., Ebi, K. L., Dunn, R. R., Svenning, J.-C., and Scheffer, M.: Quantifying the human cost of global warming, Nat. Sustain., 6, 1237–1247, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6, 2023.
Leonard, N. E., Lipsitz, K., Bizyaeva, A., Franci, A., and Lelkes, Y.: The non-linear feedback dynamics of asymmetric political polarization, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2102149118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2102149118, 2021.
Lettinga, N., Jacquet, P. O., André, J. B., Baumand, N., and Chevallier, C..: Environmental adversity is associated with lower investment in collective actions, PLoS One, 15, e0236715, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0236715, 2020.
Levitsky, S. and Ziblatt, D.: How Democracies Die, Penguin Random House, ISBN 9781524762940, 2018.
Liu, T., Chen, D., Yang, L., Meng, J., Wang, Z., Ludescher, J., Fan, J., Yang, S., Chen, D., Kurths, J., Chen, X., Havlin, S., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 67–74, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01558-4, 2023.
Lockwood, M.: Right-wing populism and the climate change agenda: exploring the linkages, Environ. Polit., 27, 712–732, https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2018.1458411, 2018.
Lu, Y.-C. and Romps, D. M.: Is a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C the correct threshold for human survivability?, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 094021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace83c, 2023.
Mach, K. J., Kraan, C. M., Adger, W. N., Buhaug, H., Burke, M., Fearon, J. D., Field, C. B. Hendrix, C. S., Maystadt, J.-F., O’Loughlin, J., Roessler, P., Scheffran, J., Schultz, K. A., and von Uexkull, N.: Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict, Nature, 571, 193–197, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6, 2019.
Macy, M. W., Manqing, M., Tabin, D. R., and Gao, J.: Polarization and tipping points, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2102144118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2102144118, 2021.
Malerba, D.: The Effects of Social Protection and Social Cohesion on the Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: What Do We (Not) Know in the Context of Low- and Middle-Income Countries?, Eur. J. Dev. Res., 34, 1358–1382, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-022-00537-x, 2022.
Manchin, M. and Orazbayev, S.: Social networks and the intention to migrate, World Dev., 109, 360–374, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.011, 2018.
Mann, M. E.: The New Climate War: The Fight to Take Back Our Planet, PublicAffairs, ISBN 9781541758223, 2021.
Marcucci, G., Mazzuto, G., Bevilacqua, M., Ciarapica, F. E., and Urciuoli, L.: Conceptual model for breaking ripple effect and cycles within supply chain resilience, Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal, 23, 252–271, https://doi.org/10.1080/16258312.2022.2031275, 2022.
Marsden, L., Ryan-Collins, J., Abrams, J., and Lenton, T.: Ecosystem tipping points: Understanding risks to the economy and financial system, UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Policy Report, 2024/03, https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/2024/apr/ecosystem-tipping-points (last access: 7 September 2024), 2024.
Martin, H. O., Quiquet, A., Nicolas, T., Giraud, G., Charbit, S., and Roche, D. M.: Climate-Induced Economic Damages Can Lead to Private-Debt Tipping Points, HAL, https://hal.science/hal-04224077v2 (last access: 7 September 2024), 2024.
Martin-Shields, C. P. and Stojetz, W.: Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict, World Dev., 110, 150–164, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.07.011, 2019.
Mastrorillo, M., Licker, R., Bohra-Mishra, P., Fagiolo, G., Estes, L. D., and Oppenheimer, M.: The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa, Glob. Environ. Change, 39, 155–169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.014, 2016.
May, R., Levin, S., and Sugihara, G.: Ecology for bankers, Nature, 451, 893–894, https://doi.org/10.1038/451893a, 2008.
McAdam, J.: Climate change, forced migration, and international law, Oxford University Press, ISBN 9780199587087, 2012.
McLeman, R.: Thresholds in climate migration, Popul. Environ., 39, 319–338, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-017-0290-2, 2018.
McLeman, R., Wrathall, D., Gilmore, E., Thornton, P., Adams, H., and Gemenne, F.: Conceptual framing to link climate risk assessments and climate-migration scholarship, Climatic Change, 165, 24, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03056-6, 2021.
McNeil-Willson, R., Gerrand, V., Scrinzi, F., and Triandafyllidou, A.: Polarisation, violent extremism and resilience in Europe today: an analytical framework, BRaVE, 2019/D2.1, https://hdl.handle.net/1814/65664 (last access: 7 September 2024), 2019.
Méjean, A., Collins-Sowah P., Guivarch, C., Piontek, F., Soergel, B., and Taconet, N.: Climate change impacts increase economic inequality: evidence from a systematic literature review, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 043003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad376e, 2024.
Miller, D. M. S.: Public trust in the aftermath of natural and na-technological disasters: Hurricane Katrina and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear incident, Int. J. Sociol. Soc. Pol., 36, 410–431, https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSSP-02-2015-0030, 2016.
Millward-Hopkins, J.: Why the impacts of climate change may make us less likely to reduce emissions, Glob. Sustain., 5, E21, https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2022.20, 2022.
Milkoreit, M.: Social tipping points everywhere? – Patterns and risks of overuse, Wiley Interdiscip, Rev. Clim, 14, e813, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.813, 2023.
Milkoreit, M. Boyd, E., Constantino, S. M., Hausner, V. H., Hessen, D. O., Kääb, A., McLaren, D., Nadeau, C., O'Brien, K., Parmentier, F.-J., Rotbarth, R., Rødven, R., Treichler, D., Wilson-Rowe, E., and Yamineva, Y.: Governance for Earth system tipping points – A research agenda, Earth Syst. Gov., 21, 100216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esg.2024.100216, 2024.
Min, B. and Miguel, M. S.: Competing contagion processes: Complex contagion triggered by simple contagion, Sci. Rep., 8, 10422, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28615-3, 2018.
Morrison, T. H., Bodin, O., Cumming, G. S., Lubell, M., Seppelt, R., Seppelt, T., and Weible, C. M.: Building blocks of polycentric governance, Policy Stud. J., 51, 475–499, https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12492, 2023.
Newell, P., Srivastava, S., Naess, L. O., Torres Contreras, G. A., and Price, R.: Toward transformative climate justice: An emerging research agenda, WIRES Clim. Change, 12, e733, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.733, 2021.
Ngaruiya, G. W. and Scheffran, J.: Actors and networks in resource conflict resolution under climate change in rural Kenya, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 441–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-441-2016, 2016.
Nielsen, D. M., Pieper, P., Barkhordarian, A., Overduin, P., Ilyina, T., Brovkin, V., Baehr, J., and Dobrynin, M.: Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 263–270, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01281-0, 2022.
Ogunbode, C. A., Doran, R., Hanss, D., Ojala, M., Salmela-Aro, K., van den Broek, K. L., Bhullar, N., Aquino, S. D., Marot, T., Schermer, J. A., and Wlodarczyk, A.: Climate anxiety, wellbeing and pro-environmental action: Correlates of negative emotional responses to climate change in 32 countries, J. Environ. Psychol., 84, 101887, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101887, 2022.
Orazani, S. N., Reynolds, K. J., and Osborne, H.: What works and why in interventions to strengthen social cohesion: A systematic review, J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 53, 938–995, https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.12990, 2023.
Otto, I. M., Donges, J. F., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R. J., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Allerberger, F., McCaffrey, M., Doe, S. S. P., Lenferna, A., Morán, N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 2354–2365, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900577117, 2020.
Park, J. S., O'Brien, J. C., Cai, C. J., Ringel Morris, M., Liang, P., and Bernstein, M. S.: Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior, arXiv, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.03442, 2023.
Paz, L. V., Viola, T. W., Milanesi, B. B., Sulzbach, J. H., Mestriner, R. G., Wieck, A., and Xavier, L. L.: Contagious depression: Automatic mimicry and the mirror neuron system – A review, Neurosci. Biobehav. Rev., 134, 104509, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neubiorev.2021.12.032, 2022.
Pearce, L., Murphy, B., and Chrétien, A.: From Displacement to Hope: A Guide for Displaced Indigenous Communities and Host Communities, Contemporary Studies, 10, Wilfrid Laurier University, http://scholars.wlu.ca/brantford_ct/10 (last access: 7 September 2024), 2017.
Pearson, J., Jackson, G., and McNamara, K. E.: Climate-driven losses to knowledge systems and cultural heritage: A literature review exploring the impacts on Indigenous and local cultures, Anthropocene Rev., 10, 343–366, https://doi.org/10.1177/20530196211005482, 2023
Pereira, L. M., Gianelli, I., Achieng, T., Amon, D., Archibald, S., Arif, S., Castro, A., Prosper Chimbadzwa, T., Coetzer, K., Field, T.-L., Selomane, O., Sitas, N., Stevens, N., Villasante, S., Armani, M., Kimuyu, D. M., Adewumi, I. J., Lapola, D. M., Obura, D., Pinho, P., Roa-Clavijo, F., Rocha, J., and Sumaila, R.: Equity and justice should underpin the discourse on tipping points, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 341–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024 , 2024
Piff, P. K., Stancato, D. M., Côté, S., Mendoza-Denton, R., and Keltner, D.: Higher social class predicts increased unethical behavior, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 4086–4091, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1118373109, 2012
Rai, A.: Chasing the ghosts: stories of people left behind on the frontline of climate and ecological crisis, S. Afr. J. Psychol., 52, 460–471, https://doi.org/10.1177/00812463221130902, 2022.
Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., and Laaksonen, A.: The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 168, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3, 2022.
Rapp, C.: Moral opinion polarization and the erosion of trust, Soc. Sci. Res., 58, 34–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2016.02.008, 2016
Ravndal, J. A.: Explaining right-wing terrorism and violence in Western Europe: Grievances, opportunities and polarisation, Eur. J. Polit. Res., 57, 845–866, https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12254, 2018.
Richards, C. E., Lupton, R. C., and Allwood, J. M.: Re-framing the threat of global warming: an empirical causal loop diagram of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse, Climatic Change, 164, 49, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02957-w, 2021
Ritchie, P. D., Smith, G. S., Davis, K. J., Fezzi, C., Halleck-Vega, S., Harper, A.B., Boulton, C. A., Binner, A. R., Day, B. H., Gallego-Sala, A. V., and Mecking, J. V.: Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point, Nat. Food, 1, 76–83, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-019-0011-3, 2020.
Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Quin, D., Lade, S. J., Abrams, J. F., Andersen, L. S., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Bai, X., Bala, G., Bunn, S. E., Ciobanu, D., DeClerck, F., Ebi, K., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Hasan, S., Kanie, N., Lenton, T. M., Loriani, S., Liverman, D. M., Mohamed, A., Nakicenovic, N., Obura, D., Ospina, D., Prodani, K., Rammelt, C., Sakschewski, B., Scholtens, J., Stewart-Koster, B., Tharammal, T., van Vuuren, D., Verburg, P. H., Wikelmann, R., Zimm, C., Bennett, E. M., Bringezu, S., Broadgate, W., Green, P. A., Huang, L., Jacobson, L., Ndehedehe, C., Pedde, S., Rocha, J., Scheffer, M., Schulte-Uebbing, L., de Vries, W., Xiao, C., Xu, C., Xu, X., Zafra-Calvo, N., and Zhang, X.: Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature, 619, 102–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8, 2023
Ross, A. R., Modi, M., Paresky, P., Jussim, L., Harrell, B., Goldenberg, A., Goldenberg, P., Finkelstein, D., Farmer, J., Holden, K., Riggleman, D., Shapiro, J., and Finkelstein, J.: A Contagion of Institutional Distrust: Viral Disinformation of the COVID Vaccine and the Road to Reconciliation, Network Contagion Research Institute, Rutgers University, https://networkcontagion.us/wp-content/uploads/NCRI_Anti-Vaccination_v4.pdf (last access: 7 September 2024), 2022.
Roukny, T., Bersini, H., Pirotte, H., Caldarelli, G., and Battiston, S.: Default cascades in complex networks: topology and systemic risk, Sci. Rep., 3, 2759, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02759, 2013
Rousseau, C., Aggarwal, N. K., and Kirmayer, L. J.: Radicalization to Violence: A View from Cultural Psychiatry. Transcult, Psychiatry, 58, 603–615, https://doi.org/10.1177/13634615211048010, 2021.
Russo, S., Mirisola, A., Dallago, F., and Roccato, M.: Facing natural disasters through the endorsement of authoritarian attitudes, J. Environ. Psychol., 68, 101412, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101412, 2020.
Sadiddin, A., Cattaneo, A., Cirillo, M., and Miller, M.: Food insecurity as a determinant of international migration: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, Food Secur., 11, 515–530, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-00927-w, 2019.
Sakaguchi, K., Varughese, A., and Auld, G.: Climate Wars? A Systematic Review of Empirical Analyses on the Links between Climate Change and Violent Conflict, Int. Stud. Rev., 19, 622–645, https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/vix022, 2017
Samitas, A., Kampouris, E., and Kenourgios, D.: Machine learning as an early warning system to predict financial crisis, Int. Rev. Finan. Anal., 71, 101507, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101507, 2020.
Sanches-Pereira, A. and Gómez M. F.: The dynamics of the Swedish biofuel system toward a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels, J. Clean. Prod., 96, 452–466, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.03.019, 2015.
Scartozzi, C.: Reframing climate-induced socio-environmental conflicts, A systematic review, Int. Stud. Rev., 23, 696–725, https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viaa064, 2020.
Scatà, M., Di Stefano, A., La Corte, A., and Liò, P.: Quantifying the propagation of distress and mental disorders in social networks, Sci. Rep., 8, 5005, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-23260-2, 2018.
Scheffer, M.: Critical Transitions in Nature and Society, Princeton Studies in Complexity, Princeton University Press, ISBN 9780691122045, 2009.
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., Van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., and Sugihara, G.: Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature, 461, 53–59, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08227, 2009.
Scheffran, J. and Hannon, B.: From Complex Conflicts to Stable Cooperation: Cases in Environment and Security, Complexity, 13, 78–91, https://doi.org/10.1002/cplx.20201, 2007.
Scheffran, J., Brzoska, M., Kominek, J., Link, P. M., and Schilling, J.: Climate Change and Violent Conflict, Science, 336, 869–871, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1221339, 2012.
Scheffran, J., Guo, W., Krampe, F., and Okpara, U.: Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1766, 2023.
Schelling, T.: Micromotives and Macrobehavior, W.W. Norton & Company, ISBN 9780393329469, 1978.
Schneider, C. R. and van der Linden, S.: Social norms as a powerful lever for motivating pro-climate actions, One Earth, 6, 346–351, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.03.014, 2023.
Selby, J., Dahi, O. S., Fröhlich, C., and Hulme, M.: Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited, Polit. Geogr., 60, 232–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.05.007, 2017.
Sharma, D. C.: Climate disasters challenge health infrastructures in India, Lancet, 402, 279–280, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01512-X, 2023
Shemyakina, O.: War, Conflict, and Food Insecurity, Annu. Rev. Res. Econ., 14, 313–332, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-111920-021918, 2022.
Sillmann, J., Christensen, I., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Huang-Lachmann, J., Juhola, S., Kornhuber, K., Mahecha, M., Mechler, R., Reichstein, M., Ruane, A.C., Schweizer, P.-J., and Williams, S.: ISC-UNDRR-RISK KAN Briefing note on systemic risk, International Science Council, Paris, Report, https://doi.org/10.24948/2022.01, 2022.
Singh, C., van der Ent, R., Fetzer, I., and Wang-Erlandsson, L.: Multi-fold increase in rainforests tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1486, 2023.
Skinner, E. B., Glidden, C. K., MacDonald, A. J., and Mordecai, E. A.: Human footprint is associated with shifts in the assemblages of major vector-borne diseases, Nat. Sustain., 6, 652–661, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01080-1, 2023.
Smirnov, O., Lahav, G., Orbell, J., Zhang, M., and Xiao, T.: Climate Change, Drought, and Potential Environmental Migration Flows Under Different Policy Scenarios, Int. Migr. Rev., 57, 36–67, https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183221079850, 2023.
Smith, M. D. and Wesselbaum, D.: Food insecurity and international migration flows, Int. Migr. Rev., 56, 615–635, https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183211042820, 2022.
Smith, E. K., Bognar, M. J., and Mayer, A. P.: Polarisation of Climate and Environmental Attitudes in the United States, 1973–2022, npj Clim. Action, 3, 2, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-023-00074-1, 2024.
Solow, A. R.: A call for peace on climate and conflict, Nature, 497, 179–180, https://doi.org/10.1038/497179a, 2013.
Spaiser, V., Hedström, P., Ranganathan, S., Jansson, K., Nordvik, M. K., and Sumpter, D. J. T.: Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems: A New Methodological Approach Applied to Study School Segregation, Sociol, Methods Res., 47, 103–135, https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124116626174, 2018.
Spaiser, V., Dunn, K., Milner, P., and Moore, J.: The effects of communicating climate change threat: mobilizing anger and authoritarian affect displacement, Environ. Sociol., 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2024.2369739, 2024.
Stanley, S. K. and Wilson, M. S.: Meta-analysing the association between social dominance orientation, authoritarianism, and attitudes on the environment and climate change, J. Environ. Psychol., 61, 46–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2018.12.002, 2019.
Stanley, S. K., Wilson, M. S., and Milfont, T. L.: Exploring short-term longitudinal effects of right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation on environmentalism, Pers. Individ. Differ., 108, 174–177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2016.11.059, 2017.
Stechemesser, A., Levermann, A., and Welz, L.: Temperature impacts on hate speech online: evidence from 4 billion geolocated tweets from the USA, Lancet Planet. Health, 6, e714–e725, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00173-5, 2022.
Stewart, A. J., McCarty, N., and Bryson, J. J.: Polarization under rising inequality and economic decline, Sci. Adv., 6, eabd4201, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd4201, 2020.
Streletskiy, D. A., Clemens, S., Lanckman, J. P., and Shiklomanov, N. I.: The costs of Arctic infrastructure damages due to permafrost degradation, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 015006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acab18, 2023.
Strogatz, S.: Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering, CRC Press, ISBN 9780738204536, 2000.
Sultana, F.: The unbearable heaviness of climate coloniality, Polit. Geogr., 99, 102638, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2022.102638, 2022.
Summer, M.: Financial Contagion and Network Analysis, Annu. Rev. Financ. Econ., 5, 277–297, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-110112-120948, 2013.
Sun, S., Jin, B., Wei, Z., and Guo, W.: Revealing the Excitation Causality between Climate and Political Violence via a Neural Forward-Intensity Poisson Process, Proceedings of the 31st International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence AI for Good, 23–29 July 2022, Vienna, Austria, 5171–5177, https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2022/718, 2022.
Tàbara, J. D., Frantzeskaki, N., Hölscher, K., Pedde, S., Kok, K., Lamperti, F., Christensen, J.H., Jäger, J., and Berry, P.: Positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world, Curr. Opin, Environ. Sustain., 31, 120–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.012, 2018.
Tafere, M.: Forced displacements and the environment: Its place in national and international climate agenda, J. Environ. Manag., 224, 191–201, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.063, 2018.
Taylor, B.: Alt-right ecology: Ecofascism and far-right environmentalism in the United States, in: The far right and the environment, edited by: Forchtner, B., Routledge, 275–292, ISBN 9781351104043, 2019.
Teen, K. M. d'l, William, H. T. P., and O'Neill, S. J.: Online misiformation about climate change. Wiley Interdiscip, Rev. Clim., 11, e665, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.665, 2020.
Tench, S., Fry, H., and Gill, P.: Spatio-temporal patterns of IED usage by the Provisional Irish Republican Army, Eur. J. Appl. Math., 27, 377–402, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0956792515000686, 2016.
Teymoori, A., Bastian, B., and Jetten, J.: Towards a Psychological Analysis of Anomie: Towards a Psychological Analysis of Anomie, Polit. Psychol., 38, 1009–1023, https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12377, 2017.
Thiery, W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I., Andrijevic, M., Frieler, K., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Bresch, D. N., Zhao, F., Willner, S. N., Büchner, M., Volkholz, J., Bauer, N., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., François, L., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Hickler, T., Huber, V., Ito, A., Jägermeyr, J., Khabarov, N., Koutroulis, A., Liu, W., Lutz, W., Mengel, M., Müller, C., Ostberg, S., Reyer, C. P. O., Stacke, T., and Wada, Y.: Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes, Science, 374, 158–160, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339, 2021.
Thøgersen, J.: Social norms and cooperation in real-life social dilemmas, J. Econ. Psychol., 29, 458–472, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2007.12.004, 2008.
Thomas, C. and Gosink, E.: At the Intersection of Eco-Crises, Eco-Anxiety, and Political Turbulence: A Primer on Twenty-First Century Ecofascism, Perspect. Global Dev. Technol., 20, 30–54, https://doi.org/10.1163/15691497-12341581, 2021.
Thomas, K., Hardy, R. D., Lazrus, H., Mendez, M., Orlove, B., Rivera-Collazo, I., Roberts, J. T., Rockman, M., Warner, B. P., and Winthrop, R.: Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim., 10, e565, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.565, 2019.
Thorn, J. P. R., Nangolo, P., Biancardi, R. A., Shackleton, S., Marchat, R.A., Ajala, O., Degado, G., Mfune, J. K. E., Cinderby, S., and Hejnowicz, A. P.: Exploring the benefits and dis-benefits of climate migration as an adaptive strategy along the rural-peri-urban continuum in Namibia, Reg. Environ. Change, 23, 10, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01973-5, 2023.
Törnberg, P.: Echo chambers and viral misinformation: Modeling fake news as complex contagion, PLOS ONE, 13, e0203958, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0203958, 2018.
Törnberg, P., Valeeva, D., Uitermark, J., and Bail, C.: Simulating Social Media Using Large Language Models to Evaluate Alternative News Feed Algorithms, arXiv, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2310.05984, 2023.
Townshend, I., Awosoga, O., Kulig, J., and Fan, H.: Social cohesion and resilience across communities that have experienced a disaster, Nat. Hazards, 76, 913–938, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1526-4, 2015
Trust, S., Joshi, S., Lenton, T., and Oliver, J. The Emperor's New Climate Scenarios, Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and University of Exeter, https://actuaries.org.uk/media/qeydewmk/the-emperor-s-new-climate-scenarios.pdf (last access: 7 September 2024), 2023.
Tubi, A. and Israeli, Y.: From risk reduction to a landscape of (un)desired outcomes: Climate migrants' perceptions of migration success and failure, Popul. Environ., 45, 9, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-023-00421-8, 2023.
Turco, R. P., Toon, O. B., Ackerman, T. P., Pollack, J. B., and Sagan, C., Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions, Science, 222, 1283–1292, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.222.4630.1283, 1983.
Twyman-Ghoshal, A.: Global Anomie Theory, in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice, edited by: Twyman-Ghoshal, A., Oxford University Press, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.013.545, 2021.
Uenal, F., Sidanius, J., Roozenbeek, J., and van der Linden, S.: Climate change threats increase modern racism as a function of social dominance orientation and ingroup identification, J. Exp. Soc. Psychol., 97, 101783, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2021.104228, 2021.
UNDRR and ISC: Hazard definition and classification review – Technical Report published by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 9-11 Rue de Varembé, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland, https://www.undrr.org/publication/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2020.
UNEP: Rapid Environmental Assessment of Kakhovka Dam Breach; Nairobi, Kenya, https://www.unep.org/resources/report/rapid-environmental (last access: 7 September 2024), 2023
UNICEF: The Climate Crisis is a Child Rights Crisis: Introducing the Children's Climate Risk Index, Report, https://data.unicef.org/resources/childrens-climate-risk-index-report/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2021.
van Baalen, S. and Mobjörk, M.: Climate Change and Violent Conflict in East Africa: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Research to Probe the Mechanisms, Int. Stud. Rev., 20, 547–575, https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/vix043, 2017.
Van der Linden, S., Leiserowitz, A., Rosenthal, S., and Maibach, E.: Inoculating the public against misinformation about climate change, Global Chall, 1, 1600008, https://doi.org/10.1002/gch2.201600008, 2017.
Vasconcelos V. V., Levin S. A., and Pinheiro F. L.: Consensus and polarization in competing complex contagion processes, J. R. Soc. Interf., 16, 20190196, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2019.0196, 2019.
Vihma, A., Reischl, G., and Nonbo Andersen, A.: A Climate Backlash: Comparing Populist Parties' Climate Policies in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, J. Environ. Dev., 30, 219–239, https://doi.org/10.1177/10704965211027748, 2021.
von Uexkull, N. and Buhaug, H.: Security Implications of Climate Change: A Decade of Scientific Progress, J. Peace Res., 58, 3–17, https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343320984210, 2021.
Ward, P. J., Blauhut, V., Bloemendaal, N., Daniell, J. E., de Ruiter, M. C., Duncan, M. J., Emberson, R., Jenkins, S. F., Kirschbaum, D., Kunz, M., Mohr, S., Muis, S., Riddell, G. A., Schäfer, A., Stanley, T., Veldkamp, T. I. E., and Winsemius, H. C.: Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020.
Weber, D., Nasim, M., Falzon, L., and Mitchell, L.: #ArsonEmergency and Australia's “Black Summer”: Polarisation and Misinformation on Social Media, in: Disinformation in Open Online Media, edited by: van Duijn, M., Preuss, M., Spaiser, V., Takes, F., and Verberne, S., MISDOOM 2020, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Vol. 12259, Springer, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61841-4_11, 2020.
Weber, E. U., Constantino, S. M., and Schlüter, M.: Embedding Cognition: Judgment and Choice in an Interdependent and Dynamic World, Curr. Dir. Psychol. Sci., 32, 328–336, https://doi.org/10.1177/09637214231159282, 2023.
WHO: WHO steps up its humanitarian response in southern Ukraine following the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2023.
Wiedermann, M., Smith E. K., Heitzig, J., and Donges, J. F.: A network-based microfoundation of Granovetter's threshold model for social tipping, Sci. Rep., 10, 11202, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67102-6, 2020.
Wilson, T. D.: Climate Change, Neoliberalism, and Migration: Mexican Sons of Peasants on the Beach, Lat. Am. Perspect, 47, 20–35, https://doi.org/10.1177/0094582X20951800, 2020.
Winkelmann, R., Donges, J. F., Smith, E. K., Milkoreit, M., Eder, C., Heitzig, J., Katsanidou, A., Wiedermann, M., Wunderling, N., and Lenton, T. M.: Social tipping processes towards climate action: A conceptual framework, Ecol. Econ., 192, 107242, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242, 2022.
Winkler, H.: The effect of income inequality on political polarization: Evidence from European regions, 2002–2014, Econ. Pol., 31, 137–162, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12129, 2019.
Wood, B. and Kallestrup, P.: Benefits and challenges of using a participatory approach with community-based mental health and psychosocial support interventions in displaced populations, Transcult. Psychiatr., 58, 283–292, https://doi.org/10.1177/1363461520983626, 2021.
Wunderling, N., Krönke, J., Wohlfarth, V., Kohler, J., Heitzig, J., Staal, A., Willner, S., Winkelmann, R., and Donges, J. F.: Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package, Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top., 230, 3163–3176, https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00155-4, 2021.
Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Rockström, J., Loriani, S., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Ritchie, P. D. L., Sakschewski, B., and Donges, J. F.: Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 75–82, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9, 2023.
Wunderling, N., von der Heydt, A. S., Aksenov, Y., Barker, S., Bastiaansen, R., Brovkin, V., Brunetti, M., Couplet, V., Kleinen, T., Lear, C. H., Lohmann, J., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Sinet, S., Swingedouw, D., Winkelmann, R., Anand, P., Barichivich, J., Bathiany, S., Baudena, M., Bruun, J. T., Chiessi, C. M., Coxall, H. K., Docquier, D., Donges, J. F., Falkena, S. K. J., Klose, A. K., Obura, D., Rocha, J., Rynders, S., Steinert, N. J., and Willeit, M.: Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024.
Xia, L., Robock, A., Scherrer, K., Harrison, C. S., Bodirsky, L., Weindl, I., Jägermeyr, J., Bardeen, C. G., Toon, O. B., and Heneghan, R.: Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection, Nat. Food, 3, 586–596, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0, 2022.
Xie, J., Meng, F., Sun, J., Ma, X., Yan, G., and Hu, Y.: Detecting and modelling real percolation and phase transitions of information on social media, Nat. Hum. Behav., 5, 1161–1168, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01090-z, 2021.
Yan, W., Woodard, R., and Sornette, D.: Diagnosis and prediction of tipping points in financial markets: Crashes and rebounds, Phys. Proced., 3, 1641–1657, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phpro.2010.07.004, 2010.
Yletyinen, J., Perry, G. L. W., Stahlmann-Brown, P., Pech, R., and Tylianakis, J. M.: Multiple social network influences can generate unexpected environmental outcomes, Sci. Rep., 11, 9768, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89143-1, 2021.
Young, H. and Jacobsen, K.: No way back? Adaptation and urbanization of IDP livelihoods in the Darfur Region of Sudan, Dev. Change, 44, 125–145, https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12003, 2013.
Youngblood, M.: Extremist ideology as a complex contagion: the spread of far-right radicalization in the United States between 2005 and 2017, Humanit, Soc. Sci, 7, 49, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00546-3, 2020.
Zammit-Mangion, A., Dewar, M., Kadirkamanathan, V., and Sanguinetti, G.: Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 12414–12419, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1203177109, 2012.
Short summary
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint