Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
Review
 | 
10 Sep 2024
Review |  | 10 Sep 2024

Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization

Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears

Related authors

Reflections and Future Directions for Multi-Hazard Risk in the Context of the Sendai Framework and Discussions Beyond
Timothy Tiggeloven, Colin Raymond, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jana Sillmann, Annegret H. Thieken, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Emma Cordier, Julia M. Crummy, Lydia Cumiskey, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Davide M. Ferrario, Wiebke S. Jäger, Elco E. Koks, Nicole van Maanen, Heather J. Murdock, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Benjamin Poschlod, Peter Priesmeier, Nivedita Sairam, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Tristian R. Stolte, Marie-Luise Zenker, James E. Daniell, Alexander Fekete, Christian M. Geiß, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Sirkku K. Juhola, Christian Kuhlicke, Karen Lebek, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, Cees J. van Westen, Judith N. Claassen, Bijan Khazai, Virginia Murray, Julius Schlumberger, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscience Communication (GC).
Short summary
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change
Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1197–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, 2025
Short summary
Emergence of climate change signal in CMIP6 extreme indices
Nina Schuhen, Carley E. Iles, Marit Sandstad, Viktor Ananiev, and Jana Sillmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3331, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
CMIP7 Data Request: Ocean and Sea Ice Priorities and Opportunities
Baylor Fox-Kemper, Patricia DeRepentigny, Anne Marie Treguier, Christian Stepanek, Eleanor O’Rourke, Chloe Mackallah, Alberto Meucci, Yevgeny Aksenov, Paul J. Durack, Nicole Feldl, Vanessa Hernaman, Céline Heuzé, Doroteaciro Iovino, Gaurav Madan, André L. Marquez, François Massonnet, Jenny Mecking, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Patrick C. Taylor, Wan-Ling Tseng, and Martin Vancoppenolle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3083,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3083, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary

Related subject area

Topics: Climate change | Interactions: Human/Earth system interactions | Methods: Other methods
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change
Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1197–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, 2025
Short summary
The aerosol pathway is crucial for observationally constraining climate sensitivity and anthropogenic forcing
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1435–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Missing the (tipping) point: the effect of information about climate tipping points on public risk perceptions in Norway
Christina Nadeau, Manjana Milkoreit, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Dag Olav Hessen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 969–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, 2024
Short summary
ESD Ideas: Exoplanet, origins of life and biosphere researchers offer a perspective fundamental to ensuring humanity's future
Daniel Duzdevich, Arwen E. Nicholson, and Raphaëlle D. Haywood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 929–932, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Aasen, M.: The polarization of public concern about climate change in Norway, Clim. Policy, 17, 213–230, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1094727, 2017. 
Abou-Chadi, T. and Krause, W.: The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties' Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach, Brit. J. Pol. Sci., 50, 829–847, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123418000029, 2020. 
Abrahams, D.: Conflict in Abundance and Peacebuilding in Scarcity: Challenges and Opportunities in Addressing Climate Change and Conflict, World Dev., 132, 104998, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104998, 2020. 
Abrutyn, S.: Toward a General Theory of Anomie: The Social Psychology of Disintegration, Arch. Eur. Sociol, 60, 109–136, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003975619000043, 2019. 
Achenbach, J.: Two mass killings a world apart share a common theme: “ecofascism”, The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/ (last access: 7 September 2024), 2019. 
Short summary
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint