Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
10 Sep 2024
Review |
| 10 Sep 2024
| 10 Sep 2024
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
Viktoria Spaiser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Sirkku Juhola
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, 00790, Finland
Sara M. Constantino
Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305, United States
Weisi Guo
Centre for Autonomous and Cyberphysical Systems, Cranfield University, London, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
Tabitha Watson
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Jana Sillmann
Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society, Hamburg University, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Alessandro Craparo
International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Recta Cali-Palmira, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
Ashleigh Basel
Alliance Biodiversity-CIAT, Cape Town, 7600, South Africa
John T. Bruun
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Krishna Krishnamurthy
Meru Labs, Panama City, 0700, Panama
Jürgen Scheffran
Institute of Geography, Research Group Climate Change and Security, Hamburg University, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Patricia Pinho
Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Altamira, 68373-100, Brazil
Uche T. Okpara
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Kent, ME4 4TB, United Kingdom
Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Resilience Science Unit, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Avit Bhowmik
Risk and Environmental Studies, Karlstad University, Karlstad, 65188, Sweden
Taha Yasseri
School of Sociology, University College Dublin, Dublin, 8Q4G 8Q, Ireland
Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Dublin, D04 N9Y1, Ireland
Ricardo Safra de Campos
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Graeme S. Cumming
Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia
Hugues Chenet
IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 – LEM – Lille Economie Management, 59000 Lille, France
Florian Krampe
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm, 16972, Sweden
Jesse F. Abrams
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
James G. Dyke
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Stefanie Rynders
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
Yevgeny Aksenov
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
Bryan M. Spears
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, EH26 0QB, United Kingdom
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Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924, 2024
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Social norms are a major influence on human behaviour. In natural resource use models, norms are often included in a simplistic way leading to "black or white" sustainability outcomes. We find that a dynamic representation of norms, including social groups, determines more nuanced states of the environment in a stylized model of resource use, while also defining the success of attempts to manage the system, suggesting the importance of well representing both in coupled models.
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
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Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
Sibel Eker, Timothy M. Lenton, Tom Powell, Jürgen Scheffran, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 789–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, 2024
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Cascading effects through cross-system interactions are one of the biggest promises of positive tipping points to create rapid climate and sustainability action. Here, we review these in terms of their interactions with sociotechnical systems such as energy, transport, agriculture, society, and policy.
Dag O. Hessen, Tom Andersen, David Armstrong McKay, Sarian Kosten, Mariana Meerhoff, Amy Pickard, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024, 2024
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Lakes worldwide are changing and under threat due to stressors such as overload of nutrients, increased input of organic carbon (“browning”), and climate change, which may cause reduced water volume, salinization, or even loss of waterbodies. Some of these changes are abrupt to the extent that they can be characterized as tipping points for that particular system. Such changes may also cause increased release of greenhouse gases, and lakes are major players in the global climate in this context.
Laura M. Pereira, Ignacio Gianelli, Therezah Achieng, Diva Amon, Sally Archibald, Suchinta Arif, Azucena Castro, Tapiwa Prosper Chimbadzwa, Kaera Coetzer, Tracy-Lynn Field, Odirilwe Selomane, Nadia Sitas, Nicola Stevens, Sebastian Villasante, Mohammed Armani, Duncan M. Kimuyu, Ibukun J. Adewumi, David M. Lapola, David Obura, Patricia Pinho, Felipe Roa-Clavijo, Juan Rocha, and U. Rashid Sumaila
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 341–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, 2024
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Narratives around tipping points, such as the need for
positivetipping points in energy transitions to avoid
negativeEarth system tipping points, do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed interventions could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people. We unpack these ideas in the context of what they mean for the concept of tipping points, using a critical decolonial view from the Global South.
Avit Bhowmik, Mark S. McCaffrey, and Oliver Kunkel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2588, 2024
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Triggering positive social tipping requires leverage points. Education can create action at scale and self-efficacy and initiate active hope to trigger positive tipping dynamics across societies.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
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Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
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This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
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In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Jordan Paul Everall, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2241, 2023
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A social tipping process is a rapid, large change in society, and can be started by few people. Does the 80/20 rule apply here? We see if this is the case for human social groups. We find that if so then it occurs when around 25 % of people engage. Tipping seems generally possible in the range of around 10 % to 40 % of the population, with most systems having tipped by the 40 % mark. When people don't change so easily, trusting groups of friends and housemates can help convince wayward friends.
Laurie Laybourn, Joseph Evans, and James Dyke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1171–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023, 2023
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The worsening effects of climate change and other environmental problems impact the ability of societies to tackle the causes of these problems. We term this "derailment risk": the risk that the path to re-stabilising the natural world is derailed by the worsening instability of societies. But, conversely, instability can also provide opportunities for positive change. Acting on derailment risk is needed to ensure positive change can win out and so is critical for avoiding catastrophic outcomes.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Preprint under review for BG
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For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Jennifer Williamson, Chris Evans, Bryan Spears, Amy Pickard, Pippa J. Chapman, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Fraser Leith, Susan Waldron, and Don Monteith
Biogeosciences, 20, 3751–3766, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, 2023
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Managing drinking water catchments to minimise water colour could reduce costs for water companies and save their customers money. Brown-coloured water comes from peat soils, primarily around upland reservoirs. Management practices, including blocking drains, removing conifers, restoring peatland plants and reducing burning, have been used to try and reduce water colour. This work brings together published evidence of the effectiveness of these practices to aid water industry decision-making.
Nadia Ameli, Hugues Chenet, Max Falkenberg, Sumit Kothari, Jamie Rickman, and Francesco Lamperti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1750, 2023
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Transitioning to a net-zero economy necessitates significant changes in the financial system. By promoting collective behavior, aligning expectations, using public finance, reducing capital costs and encouraging low-carbon investments, the financial system can play a crucial role in re-orienting economies onto a net-zero course. These mechanisms underscore the potential for positive tipping points in sustainable finance and stress the importance of policy interventions to capitalize on them.
Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1766, 2023
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To study tipping cascades in the climate-conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses transitions between conflict and cooperation. The Lake Chad case demonstrates climate change as a risk multiplier combined with poor governance, lowering resilience and barriers of communities to conflict. Adaptive and anticipative governance can prevent tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperation, through civil conflict transformation and environmental peacebuilding.
Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Adam William Bateson, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Christopher Horvat
The Cryosphere, 17, 3575–3591, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, 2023
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Sea ice is composed of small, discrete pieces of ice called floes, whose size distribution plays a critical role in the interactions between the sea ice, ocean and atmosphere. This study provides an assessment of sea ice models using new high-resolution floe size distribution observations, revealing considerable differences between them. These findings point not only to the limitations in models but also to the need for more high-resolution observations to validate and calibrate models.
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622, 2023
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Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can developed via enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea-level rise). The likelihood for social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with highest exposure to persistent risks.
Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Ben Smith, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Ashish Ghadiali, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1454, 2023
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Earth system tipping points pose existential threats and so there is an urgent need to act. However, this imperative cannot increase risks nor perpetuate injustices. We argue that considerations of what needs to change, who is asked to change and where the impacts will be felt and by whom, are fundamental questions that need to be addressed in decision-making. Everyone has a role to play in ensuring that justice and equity are incorporated into every action towards a more sustainable future.
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
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The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
Adam William Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 16, 2565–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, 2022
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Numerical models are used to understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover. The sea ice cover is formed of pieces of ice called floes. Several recent studies have proposed variable floe size models to replace the standard model assumption of a fixed floe size. In this study we show the need to include floe fragmentation processes in these variable floe size models and demonstrate that model design can determine the impact of floe size on size ice evolution.
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vihma, Jouni Räisänen, Alexander Baklanov, Sergey Chalov, Igor Esau, Ekaterina Ezhova, Matti Leppäranta, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Jukka Pumpanen, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Jianhui Bai, Igor Bashmachnikov, Boris Belan, Federico Bianchi, Boris Biskaborn, Michael Boy, Jaana Bäck, Bin Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Jonathan Duplissy, Egor Dyukarev, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Martin Forsius, Martin Heimann, Sirkku Juhola, Vladimir Konovalov, Igor Konovalov, Pavel Konstantinov, Kajar Köster, Elena Lapshina, Anna Lintunen, Alexander Mahura, Risto Makkonen, Svetlana Malkhazova, Ivan Mammarella, Stefano Mammola, Stephany Buenrostro Mazon, Outi Meinander, Eugene Mikhailov, Victoria Miles, Stanislav Myslenkov, Dmitry Orlov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Roberta Pirazzini, Olga Popovicheva, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Torsten Sachs, Vladimir Shevchenko, Andrey Skorokhod, Andreas Stohl, Elli Suhonen, Erik S. Thomson, Marina Tsidilina, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Petteri Uotila, Aki Virkkula, Nadezhda Voropay, Tobias Wolf, Sayaka Yasunaka, Jiahua Zhang, Yubao Qiu, Aijun Ding, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Nikolay Kasimov, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4413–4469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, 2022
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We summarize results during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, especially from Russia, and introduce recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis.
Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
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In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
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Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
Jennifer Williamson, Christopher Evans, Bryan Spears, Amy Pickard, Pippa J. Chapman, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Fraser Leith, and Don Monteith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-450, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Water companies in the UK have found that drinking water from upland reservoirs is becoming browner. This is costly to treat and if the dissolved organic matter that causes the colour isn't removed potentially harmful chemicals could be produced. Land management around reservoirs has been suggested as a way to reduce water colour. We reviewed the available literature to assess whether this would work. There is limited evidence available to date, although forestry appears to increase colour.
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
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We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020
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We present an open-source software framework for developing so-called
world–Earth modelsthat link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future trajectories in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology and sociology.
Parya Broomandi, Xueyu Geng, Weisi Guo, Jong Ryeol Kim, Alessio Pagani, and David Topping
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-342, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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As a result of our novel graph-based reduced modeling, we are able to represent high-dimensional knowledge into a causal inference and stability framework.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Adam W. Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Lucia Hosekova, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 14, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-403-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-403-2020, 2020
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The Arctic sea ice cover has been observed to be decreasing, particularly in summer. We use numerical models to gain insight into processes controlling its seasonal and decadal evolution. Sea ice is made of pieces of ice called floes. Previous models have set these floes to be the same size, which is not supported by observations. In this study we show that accounting for variable floe size reveals the importance of sea ice regions close to the open ocean in driving seasonal retreat of sea ice.
David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Pierre Mathiot, Alex Megann, Yevgeny Aksenov, Edward W. Blockley, Daley Calvert, Tim Graham, Helene T. Hewitt, Patrick Hyder, Till Kuhlbrodt, Jamie G. L. Rae, and Bablu Sinha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3187–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3187-2018, 2018
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We document the latest version of the shared UK global configuration of the
NEMO ocean model. This configuration will be used as part of the climate
models for the UK contribution to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report.
30-year integrations forced with atmospheric forcing show that the new
configurations have an improved simulation in the Southern Ocean with the
near-surface temperatures and salinities and the sea ice all matching the
observations more closely.
Steven J. Lade, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, John M. Anderies, Christian Beer, Sarah E. Cornell, Thomas Gasser, Jon Norberg, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, and Will Steffen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, 2018
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Around half of the carbon that humans emit into the atmosphere each year is taken up on land (by trees) and in the ocean (by absorption). We construct a simple model of carbon uptake that, unlike the complex models that are usually used, can be analysed mathematically. Our results include that changes in atmospheric carbon may affect future carbon uptake more than changes in climate. Our simple model could also study mechanisms that are currently too uncertain for complex models.
Fabrice Ardhuin, Yevgueny Aksenov, Alvise Benetazzo, Laurent Bertino, Peter Brandt, Eric Caubet, Bertrand Chapron, Fabrice Collard, Sophie Cravatte, Jean-Marc Delouis, Frederic Dias, Gérald Dibarboure, Lucile Gaultier, Johnny Johannessen, Anton Korosov, Georgy Manucharyan, Dimitris Menemenlis, Melisa Menendez, Goulven Monnier, Alexis Mouche, Frédéric Nouguier, George Nurser, Pierre Rampal, Ad Reniers, Ernesto Rodriguez, Justin Stopa, Céline Tison, Clément Ubelmann, Erik van Sebille, and Jiping Xie
Ocean Sci., 14, 337–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, 2018
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The Sea surface KInematics Multiscale (SKIM) monitoring mission is a proposal for a future satellite that is designed to measure ocean currents and waves. Using a Doppler radar, the accurate measurement of currents requires the removal of the mean velocity due to ocean wave motions. This paper describes the main processing steps needed to produce currents and wave data from the radar measurements. With this technique, SKIM can provide unprecedented coverage and resolution, over the global ocean.
Finn Müller-Hansen, Maja Schlüter, Michael Mäs, Jonathan F. Donges, Jakob J. Kolb, Kirsten Thonicke, and Jobst Heitzig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 977–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017, 2017
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Today, human interactions with the Earth system lead to complex feedbacks between social and ecological dynamics. Modeling such feedbacks explicitly in Earth system models (ESMs) requires making assumptions about individual decision making and behavior, social interaction, and their aggregation. In this overview paper, we compare different modeling approaches and techniques and highlight important consequences of modeling assumptions. We illustrate them with examples from land-use modeling.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Sebastian Sippel, Jonathan F. Donges, Thomas Kaminski, Stefan Metzger, Mirco Migliavacca, Dario Papale, Anja Rammig, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 14, 4255–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, 2017
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We investigate the likelihood of ecological in situ networks to detect and monitor the impact of extreme events in the terrestrial biosphere.
Wolfram Barfuss, Jonathan F. Donges, Marc Wiedermann, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 255–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-255-2017, 2017
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Human societies depend on the resources ecosystems provide. We study this coevolutionary relationship by utilizing a stylized model of resource users on a social network. This model demonstrates that social–cultural processes can have a profound influence on the environmental state, such as determining whether the resources collapse from overuse or not. This suggests that social–cultural processes should receive more attention in the modeling of sustainability transitions and the Earth system.
Finn Müller-Hansen, Manoel F. Cardoso, Eloi L. Dalla-Nora, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 113–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, 2017
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Deforestation and subsequent land uses in the Brazilian Amazon have huge impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, local climate and biodiversity. To better understand these land-cover changes, we apply complex systems methods uncovering spatial patterns in regional transition probabilities between land-cover types, which we estimate using maps derived from satellite imagery. The results show clusters of similar land-cover dynamics and thus complement studies at the local scale.
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Tuukka Petäjä, Theo Kurten, Aleksander Baklanov, Anatoly Shvidenko, Jaana Bäck, Timo Vihma, Pavel Alekseychik, Meinrat O. Andreae, Stephen R. Arnold, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Boris Belan, Leonid Bobylev, Sergey Chalov, Yafang Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Gerrit de Leeuw, Aijun Ding, Sergey Dobrolyubov, Sergei Dubtsov, Egor Dyukarev, Nikolai Elansky, Kostas Eleftheriadis, Igor Esau, Nikolay Filatov, Mikhail Flint, Congbin Fu, Olga Glezer, Aleksander Gliko, Martin Heimann, Albert A. M. Holtslag, Urmas Hõrrak, Juha Janhunen, Sirkku Juhola, Leena Järvi, Heikki Järvinen, Anna Kanukhina, Pavel Konstantinov, Vladimir Kotlyakov, Antti-Jussi Kieloaho, Alexander S. Komarov, Joni Kujansuu, Ilmo Kukkonen, Ella-Maria Duplissy, Ari Laaksonen, Tuomas Laurila, Heikki Lihavainen, Alexander Lisitzin, Alexsander Mahura, Alexander Makshtas, Evgeny Mareev, Stephany Mazon, Dmitry Matishov, Vladimir Melnikov, Eugene Mikhailov, Dmitri Moisseev, Robert Nigmatulin, Steffen M. Noe, Anne Ojala, Mari Pihlatie, Olga Popovicheva, Jukka Pumpanen, Tatjana Regerand, Irina Repina, Aleksei Shcherbinin, Vladimir Shevchenko, Mikko Sipilä, Andrey Skorokhod, Dominick V. Spracklen, Hang Su, Dmitry A. Subetto, Junying Sun, Arkady Y. Terzhevik, Yuri Timofeyev, Yuliya Troitskaya, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Viacheslav I. Kharuk, Nina Zaytseva, Jiahua Zhang, Yrjö Viisanen, Timo Vesala, Pertti Hari, Hans Christen Hansson, Gennady G. Matvienko, Nikolai S. Kasimov, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Sergej Zilitinkevich, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14421–14461, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14421-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14421-2016, 2016
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After kick off in 2012, the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program has expanded fast and today the multi-disciplinary research community covers ca. 80 institutes and a network of ca. 500 scientists from Europe, Russia, and China. Here we introduce scientific topics relevant in this context. This is one of the first multi-disciplinary overviews crossing scientific boundaries, from atmospheric sciences to socio-economics and social sciences.
Vera Heck, Jonathan F. Donges, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-783-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-783-2016, 2016
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We assess the co-evolutionary dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle and societal interventions through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) with a conceptual model in a planetary boundary context. The focus on one planetary boundary alone may lead to navigating the Earth system out of the safe operating space due to transgression of other boundaries. The success of tCDR depends on the degree of anticipation of climate change, the potential tCDR rate and the underlying emission pathway.
Jonatan F. Siegmund, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, and Reik V. Donner
Biogeosciences, 13, 5541–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016, 2016
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In this study we systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of flowering of four shrub species across Germany by using event coincidence analysis. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies, highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. Additionally, the analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the fall preceding the flowering.
Grace W. Ngaruiya and Jürgen Scheffran
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 441–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-441-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-441-2016, 2016
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Climate change complicates rural conflict resolution dynamics and institutions. There is urgent need for conflict-sensitive adaptation in Africa. The study of social network data reveals three forms of fused conflict resolution arrangements in Loitoktok, Kenya. Where, extension officers, council of elders, local chiefs and private investors are potential conduits of knowledge. Efficiency of rural conflict resolution can be enhanced by diversification in conflict resolution actors and networks.
J. Heitzig, T. Kittel, J. F. Donges, and N. Molkenthin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 21–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-21-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-21-2016, 2016
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The debate about a safe and just operating space for humanity and the possible pathways towards and within it requires an analysis of the inherent dynamics of the Earth system and of the options for influencing its evolution. We present and illustrate with examples a conceptual framework for performing such an analysis not in a quantitative, optimizing mode, but in a qualitative way that emphasizes the main decision dilemmas that one may face in the sustainable management of the Earth system.
I. S. Weaver and J. G. Dyke
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2507-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2507-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Many parts of the Earth systems undergo rapid changes from one state to another. A disastrous example being a vivacious lake becoming opaque; an algae-dominated state. We model a generic complex ecosystem, where the coupling between life and important environmental variables drives transitions. We find even small numbers of environmental variables to produce complicated networks of states, and that transitions are preceded by warning signals, a result supporting contemporary empirical research.
J. Schilling, R. Locham, T. Weinzierl, J. Vivekananda, and J. Scheffran
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 703–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-703-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-703-2015, 2015
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This article first discusses the effects of oil exploration on the vulnerability of pastoral communities to climate change. The effects are
found to be ambivalent, but mostly aggravating. Second, the article explores the (potential) effects of oil exploration on local conflict dynamics.
Findings suggest a risk of escalating company-community conflicts. These conflicts are mostly driven by unfulfilled community expectations for
employment, water and development.
T. Nocke, S. Buschmann, J. F. Donges, N. Marwan, H.-J. Schulz, and C. Tominski
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 545–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-545-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-545-2015, 2015
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The paper reviews the available visualisation techniques and tools for the visual analysis of geo-physical climate networks. The results from a questionnaire with experts from non-linear physics are presented, and the paper surveys recent developments from information visualisation and cartography with respect to their applicability for visual climate network analytics. Several case studies based on own solutions illustrate the potentials of state-of-the-art network visualisation technology.
A. Y. Sun, J. Chen, and J. Donges
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 433–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-433-2015, 2015
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Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a key role in global water and energy cycles. This work applies complex climate networks to analyzing spatial patterns in TWS. A comparative analysis is conducted using a remotely sensed (GRACE) and a model-generated TWS data set. Our results reveal hotspots of TWS anomalies around the global land surfaces. Prospects are offered on using network connectivity as constraints to further improve current global land surface models.
R. Marsh, V. O. Ivchenko, N. Skliris, S. Alderson, G. R. Bigg, G. Madec, A. T. Blaker, Y. Aksenov, B. Sinha, A. C. Coward, J. Le Sommer, N. Merino, and V. B. Zalesny
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1547–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, 2015
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Calved icebergs account for around 50% of total freshwater input to the ocean from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. As they melt, icebergs interact with the ocean. We have developed and tested interactive icebergs in a state-of-the-art global ocean model, showing how sea ice, temperatures, and currents are disturbed by iceberg melting. With this new model capability, we are better prepared to predict how future increases in iceberg numbers might influence the oceans and climate.
M. Abid, J. Scheffran, U. A. Schneider, and M. Ashfaq
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, 2015
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Based on a farm household survey of 450 farmers, this study examined the adaptation to climate change and factors affecting the adoption of various adaptation measures at the farm level in Pakistan. The study demonstrates that awareness of climate change is widespread in the area, and farmers are adapting their crops to climate variability. However the adaptation process is constrained due to several factors such as lack of information, lack of money, lack of resources and shortage of water.
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 11, 709–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, 2015
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Paleoclimate records from cave deposits allow the reconstruction of Holocene dynamics of the Asian monsoon system, an important tipping element in Earth's climate. Employing recently developed techniques of nonlinear time series analysis reveals several robust and continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoonal variability. These regime shifts might have played an important role as drivers of migration, cultural change, and societal collapse during the past 10,000 years.
A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J. F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 12, 373–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, 2015
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
I. A. Dmitrenko, S. A. Kirillov, N. Serra, N. V. Koldunov, V. V. Ivanov, U. Schauer, I. V. Polyakov, D. Barber, M. Janout, V. S. Lien, M. Makhotin, and Y. Aksenov
Ocean Sci., 10, 719–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-719-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-719-2014, 2014
A. Megann, D. Storkey, Y. Aksenov, S. Alderson, D. Calvert, T. Graham, P. Hyder, J. Siddorn, and B. Sinha
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1069–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, 2014
F. Wobus, G. I. Shapiro, J. M. Huthnance, M. A. M. Maqueda, and Y. Aksenov
Ocean Sci., 9, 885–899, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-885-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-885-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Topics: Climate change | Interactions: Human/Earth system interactions | Methods: Other methods
Missing the (tipping) point: the effect of information about climate tipping points on public risk perceptions in Norway
ESD Ideas: Exoplanet, origins of life and biosphere researchers offer a perspective fundamental to ensuring humanity's future
The aerosol pathway is crucial for observationally constrained climate sensitivity and anthropogenic forcing
Christina Nadeau, Manjana Milkoreit, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Dag Olav Hessen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 969–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, 2024
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The paper examines how knowledge about climate tipping points (CTPs) influences public risk perceptions in Norway. Using an online survey, the study finds that only 13 % of Norwegians have good knowledge of climate tipping points. Communication about these tipping points had a modest effect, slightly increasing concern compared to general climate change information. The study highlights the need for further research on this topic, especially how to effectively communicate knowledge about CTPs.
Daniel Duzdevich, Arwen E. Nicholson, and Raphaëlle D. Haywood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 929–932, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024, 2024
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Scientists exploring the histories of planets and life are uniquely positioned to communicate a perspective that is fundamental to our survival: humanity is wholly embedded in Earth and its biosphere. There is no escaping our planet and its history. Only policies that build on this perspective will contribute to a flourishing future for humanity. We offer a few brief glimpses of this cosmic perspective and call on our colleagues to acknowledge the powerful stories emanating from their work.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2030, 2024
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Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are central quantities in climate science, uncertain and contribute to the spread in climate predictions. To constrain these, we use observations of temperature and ocean heat content and prior knowledge of radiative forcings over the industrialized period. The estimates are sensitive to how the aerosol cooling has evolved over the latter part of the 20th century, and a strong aerosol forcing trend in the 1960s–1970s is not supported by our analysis.
Cited articles
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Abrahams, D.: Conflict in Abundance and Peacebuilding in Scarcity: Challenges and Opportunities in Addressing Climate Change and Conflict, World Dev., 132, 104998, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104998, 2020.
Abrutyn, S.: Toward a General Theory of Anomie: The Social Psychology of Disintegration, Arch. Eur. Sociol, 60, 109–136, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003975619000043, 2019.
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Agius, C., Bergman Rosamond, A., and Kinnvall, C.: Populism, Ontological Insecurity and Gendered Nationalism: Masculinity, Climate Denial and Covid-19, Polit. Relig. Ideol., 21, 432–450, https://doi.org/10.1080/21567689.2020.1851871, 2020.
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Akinbami, C. A. O.: Migration and Climate Change Impacts on Rural Entrepreneurs in Nigeria: A Gender Perspective, Sustainability, 13, 8882, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13168882, 2021.
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Anderson, W., Taylor, C., McDermid, S., Ilboudo-Nébié, E., Seager, R., Schlenker, W., Cottier, F., de Sherbinin, A., Mendeloff, D., and Markey, K. Violent conflict exacerbated drought-related food insecurity between 2009 and 2019 in sub-Saharan Africa, Nat. Food, 2, 603–615, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00327-4, 2021.
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Baele, S., Brace, L., and Ging, D.: A Diachronic Cross-Platforms Analysis of Violent Extremist Language in the Incel Online Ecosystem, Terror. Polit. Violenc., 36, 382–405, https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2022.2161373, 2023.
Battiston, S., Mandel, A., Monasterolo, I., Schütze, F., and Visentin, G.: A climate stress-test of the financial system, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 283–288, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3255, 2017.
BenDor, T. and Scheffran, J.: Agent-Based Modeling of Environmental Conflict and Cooperation, CRC Press, Boca Raton, 363 pp., https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351106252, 2019.
Benegal, S. and Holman, M.R.: Understanding the importance of sexism in shaping climate denial and policy opposition, Climatic Change, 167, 48, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03193-y, 2021.
Benso, M. R., Gesualdo, G. C., Silva, R. F., Silva, G. J., Castillo Rápalo, L. M., Navarro, F. A. R., Marques, P. A. A., Marengo, J. A., and Mendiondo, E. M.: Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1335–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023, 2023.
Bentley, R. A., Maddison, E. J., Ranner, P. H., Bissell, J., Caiado, C. C., Bhatanacharoen, P., Clark, T., Botha, M., Akinbami, F., Hollow, M., and Michie, R.: Social tipping points and Earth systems dynamics, Front. Environ. Sci., 2, 35, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035, 2014.
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Short summary
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system...
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