Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
10 Sep 2024
Review |
| 10 Sep 2024
| 10 Sep 2024
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
Viktoria Spaiser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
Sirkku Juhola
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, 00790, Finland
Sara M. Constantino
Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305, United States
Weisi Guo
Centre for Autonomous and Cyberphysical Systems, Cranfield University, London, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
Tabitha Watson
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Jana Sillmann
Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society, Hamburg University, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Alessandro Craparo
International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Recta Cali-Palmira, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
Ashleigh Basel
Alliance Biodiversity-CIAT, Cape Town, 7600, South Africa
John T. Bruun
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Krishna Krishnamurthy
Meru Labs, Panama City, 0700, Panama
Jürgen Scheffran
Institute of Geography, Research Group Climate Change and Security, Hamburg University, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Patricia Pinho
Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Altamira, 68373-100, Brazil
Uche T. Okpara
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Kent, ME4 4TB, United Kingdom
Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Resilience Science Unit, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Avit Bhowmik
Risk and Environmental Studies, Karlstad University, Karlstad, 65188, Sweden
Taha Yasseri
School of Sociology, University College Dublin, Dublin, 8Q4G 8Q, Ireland
Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Dublin, D04 N9Y1, Ireland
Ricardo Safra de Campos
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Graeme S. Cumming
Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia
Hugues Chenet
IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 – LEM – Lille Economie Management, 59000 Lille, France
Florian Krampe
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm, 16972, Sweden
Jesse F. Abrams
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
James G. Dyke
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Stefanie Rynders
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
Yevgeny Aksenov
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom
Bryan M. Spears
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, EH26 0QB, United Kingdom
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Bastian Ott, Jonathan F. Donges, and Johan Rockström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-79, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Climate adaptation is crucial but its impacts on the Earth system are not well understood. Our study finds climate adaptation contributes ~26 % of annual greenhouse gas emissions, ~74 % of human freshwater withdrawals, and even affects the ozone layer. While some of these impacts are driven by climate change, the majority is likely fuelled by economic, demographic, and technological developments. These findings highlight the need to balance adaptation with respect for Earth system resilience.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maša Ann, Jörn Behrens, and Jana Sillmann
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 33, 85–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-85-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-85-2026, 2026
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We present a new framework based on Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to better detect outliers and model extremes. Unlike standard DMD, which focuses on average system behaviour, our approach targets rare, exceptional dynamics. Applied to climate data, it improves extreme event approximation and reveals meaningful spatiotemporal patterns. The method may generalise to other types of extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
John M. Anderies, Max Bechthold, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Nico Wunderling, Wolfram Barfuss, and Johan Rockström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6345, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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This paper explores a new approach to understanding human-Earth system resilience. It introduces a measure that estimates how likely a system is to reach a safe and just state. Available knowledge about how the system works, its boundaries, and potential disruptions centrally constrain the measure. It could help decision-makers strike a balance between gaining knowledge, building capacity to act, and taking practical measures to improve resilience in many different types of systems.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nina Schuhen, Carley E. Iles, Marit Sandstad, Viktor Ananiev, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 753–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-753-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-753-2026, 2026
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As climate changes, extremes are becoming increasingly frequent. We investigate the time of emergence for a large range of different extremes, meaning the earliest time when a significant change in these extremes can be detected beyond natural variability, whether in the past or in the future. The results are based on 21 global climate models and show considerable differences between regions, types of indices and emissions scenarios, as well as between temperature and precipitation extremes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
E. Keith Smith, Carl Folke, Niklas Kitzmann, Manjana Milkoreit, Per Olsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Anne-Sophie Crépin, Christina Eder, Niklas Harring, Jobst Heitzig, Alexia Katsanidou, Timothy M. Lenton, Franz Mauelshagen, Kelton Minor, Ilona M. Otto, Armon Rezai, Jürgen Scheffran, Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen, Rick van der Ploeg, Nico Wunderling, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-177, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Achieving climate and sustainability goals requires rapid, large-scale change. We introduce criticality – the likelihood a system is near a social tipping point – and critical agency – the capacity to shape those conditions. Our framework shows how coalitions and policies can trigger desired shifts and avoid harmful ones, linking complex systems theory with evidence to guide policymakers and practitioners.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anastasia Vogelbacher, Malte von Szombathely, Marc Lennartz, Benjamin Poschlod, and Jana Sillmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6362, 2026
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In this study we address risk to pluvial floods by following the risk definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), developed in co-operation with stakeholders. We identify buildings in urban areas where residents face higher flood risk due to greater social vulnerability, increased exposure, or elevated flood hazard. We present the development and application of a Python-based ArcGIS toolbox for estimating pluvial flood risk at building scale.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander Lee Rischmuller, Benjamin Poschlod, and Jana Sillmann
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-1-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-1-2026, 2026
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Extreme precipitation probability estimation is vital for hazard protection design but has high uncertainty. We tested six statistical models using 2000 years of climate data. Our Bayesian hierarchical duration-dependent Generalized Extreme Value model shows the highest accuracy and robustness for sample sizes between 30 and 100 years, making it highly promising for use with limited observational records.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip J. Ward, Sophie Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Judith Claassen, James Daniell, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Julius Schlumberger, Timothy Tiggeloven, Silvia Torresan, Nicole van Maanen, Andrew Warren, Carmen D. Álvarez-Albelo, Vanessa Banks, Benjamin Blanz, Veronica Casartelli, Jordan Correa González, Julia Crummy, Anne Sophie Daloz, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Juan José Díaz-Hernández, Jaime Díaz-Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Davide Ferrario, Sara García-González, Joel Gill, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Wiebke Jäger, Abel López-Díez, Lin Ma, Jaroslav Mysiak, Diep Ngoc Nguyen, Noemi Padrón Fumero, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Karina Reiter, Jana Sillmann, and Lara Smale
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5897, 2025
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Disasters often result from interactions between different hazards, like floods triggering landslides, or earthquakes followed by tropical cyclones, so-called multi-hazards. People and societies are increasingly exposed and vulnerable to these multi-hazards. Assessing these aspects is referred to as multi-(hazard-)risk assessment and management. In this paper we synthesise key learnings from the MYRIAD-EU project, reflecting on progress and challenges faced in addressing multi-(hazard-)risk.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Iris Mužić, Øivind Hodnebrog, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Terje K. Berntsen, Jana Sillmann, David M. Lawrence, and Paul A. Dirmeyer
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 11, 273–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-273-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-273-2025, 2025
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This study investigates soil moisture–temperature coupling during the extreme warm conditions in May–August 2018 in southern and central Sweden using the merged GLEAM-E-OBS dataset and four simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (WRF-CTSM). Based on changes in surface soil moisture, evaporative fraction, and daily maximum 2 m temperature, on average across the region and five datasets, the coupling lasted for 22 d.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Natalia Castillo Bautista, Marco Gaetani, Leonard F. Borchert, Benjamin Poschlod, Lukas Brunner, Jana Sillmann, and Mario L. V. Martina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5073, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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When hot temperatures and drought occur together (compound events), they can cause harmful impacts on crops and society. Using six decades of climate data, we show that such compound events repeatedly occurred in three breadbaskets of the Northern Hemisphere. These events are linked to atmospheric circulation patterns that favor heat and dryness, which in turn interact to amplify the impact. Our study contributes to understand the drivers of these events to support climate impact assessment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jannes Breier, Luana Schwarz, Hannah Prawitz, Werner von Bloh, Christoph Müller, Stephen Björn Wirth, Max Bechthold, Dieter Gerten, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4475, 2025
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We present a new modelling framework that links global vegetation and agricultural modelling with human decision-making processes in an integrated simulation approach. This makes it possible to explore how farming practices and environmental changes influence each other over time. By combining climate, land use, and social dynamics in one system, the framework opens new ways to study food security, climate adaptation strategies, and long-term impacts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
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In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, 2025
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We present a novel global model that links farmer decisions with ecological processes to explore how agricultural systems co-evolve. Unlike previous tools, it captures feedbacks between society and nature at up-to planetary scale. We find that conservation practices can restore soil health and support stable harvests. Adoption spreads through learning and norms, showing how regeneration at the farm scale can ripple outward, contributing to global sustainability and Earth system resilience.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3604, 2025
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We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1365–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, 2025
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Social norms are a major influence on human behaviour. In natural resource use models, norms are often included in a simplistic way leading to “black or white” sustainability outcomes. We find that a dynamic representation of norms, including social groups, determines more nuanced states of the environment in a stylised model of resource use while also defining the success of attempts to manage the system, suggesting the importance of representing both aspects well in coupled models.
Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Tom Powell, Ashish Ghadiali, Ben Smith, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, 2025
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Earth system tipping points pose existential threats requiring urgent action. However, this imperative should neither increase risks nor perpetuate injustices. We argue that considerations of what needs to change, who is asked to change, and where the impacts will be felt and by whom are fundamental questions that need to be addressed in decision-making. Everyone has a role to play in ensuring that justice and equity are incorporated into actions towards a more sustainable future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Timothy Tiggeloven, Colin Raymond, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jana Sillmann, Annegret H. Thieken, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Emma Cordier, Julia M. Crummy, Lydia Cumiskey, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Davide M. Ferrario, Wiebke S. Jäger, Elco E. Koks, Nicole van Maanen, Heather J. Murdock, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Benjamin Poschlod, Peter Priesmeier, Nivedita Sairam, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Tristian R. Stolte, Marie-Luise Zenker, James E. Daniell, Alexander Fekete, Christian M. Geiß, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Sirkku K. Juhola, Christian Kuhlicke, Karen Lebek, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, Cees J. van Westen, Judith N. Claassen, Bijan Khazai, Virginia Murray, Julius Schlumberger, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, 2025
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Natural hazards like floods, earthquakes, and landslides are often interconnected which may create bigger problems than when they occur alone. We studied expert discussions from an international conference to understand how scientists and policymakers can better prepare for these multi-hazards and use new technologies to protect its communities while contributing to dialogues about future international agreements beyond the Sendai Framework and supporting global sustainability goals.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1197–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, 2025
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To study tipping cascades in the climate–conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses transitions between conflict and cooperation. The Lake Chad case demonstrates climate change as a risk multiplier combined with poor governance, lowering resilience and barriers of communities to conflict. Adaptive and anticipative governance can prevent tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperation through civil conflict transformation and environmental peacebuilding.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Baylor Fox-Kemper, Patricia DeRepentigny, Anne Marie Treguier, Christian Stepanek, Eleanor O’Rourke, Chloe Mackallah, Alberto Meucci, Yevgeny Aksenov, Paul J. Durack, Nicole Feldl, Vanessa Hernaman, Céline Heuzé, Doroteaciro Iovino, Gaurav Madan, André L. Marquez, François Massonnet, Jenny Mecking, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Patrick C. Taylor, Wan-Ling Tseng, and Martin Vancoppenolle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3083, 2025
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The earth system model variables needed for studies of the ocean and sea ice are prioritized and requested.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, 2025
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Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can develop by enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea level rise). The likelihood of social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with the highest exposure to persistent risks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nadia Ameli, Hugues Chenet, Max Falkenberg, Sumit Kothari, Jamie Rickman, and Francesco Lamperti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025, 2025
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Transitioning to a net-zero economy necessitates significant changes in the financial system. By promoting collective behaviour, aligning expectations, using public finance, reducing capital costs, and encouraging low-carbon investments, the financial system can play a crucial role in re-orienting economies onto a net-zero course. These mechanisms underscore the potential for positive tipping points in sustainable finance and stress the importance of policy interventions to capitalize on them.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
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We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 189–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, 2025
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A social tipping process is a large change in a social group that can be started by few people. Does the 80/20 rule apply here? We see if this is the case for human social groups. We find that, if the social conditions allow, change occurs when around 25 % of people engage. While tipping can happen between 10 % and 43 %, most cases tip by 40 %. However, tipping is not guaranteed: when people are resistant, trusted friend groups and context-appropriate messaging help the process along.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
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Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sibel Eker, Timothy M. Lenton, Tom Powell, Jürgen Scheffran, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 789–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, 2024
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Cascading effects through cross-system interactions are one of the biggest promises of positive tipping points to create rapid climate and sustainability action. Here, we review these in terms of their interactions with sociotechnical systems such as energy, transport, agriculture, society, and policy.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dag O. Hessen, Tom Andersen, David Armstrong McKay, Sarian Kosten, Mariana Meerhoff, Amy Pickard, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-653-2024, 2024
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Lakes worldwide are changing and under threat due to stressors such as overload of nutrients, increased input of organic carbon (“browning”), and climate change, which may cause reduced water volume, salinization, or even loss of waterbodies. Some of these changes are abrupt to the extent that they can be characterized as tipping points for that particular system. Such changes may also cause increased release of greenhouse gases, and lakes are major players in the global climate in this context.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura M. Pereira, Ignacio Gianelli, Therezah Achieng, Diva Amon, Sally Archibald, Suchinta Arif, Azucena Castro, Tapiwa Prosper Chimbadzwa, Kaera Coetzer, Tracy-Lynn Field, Odirilwe Selomane, Nadia Sitas, Nicola Stevens, Sebastian Villasante, Mohammed Armani, Duncan M. Kimuyu, Ibukun J. Adewumi, David M. Lapola, David Obura, Patricia Pinho, Felipe Roa-Clavijo, Juan Rocha, and U. Rashid Sumaila
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 341–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, 2024
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Narratives around tipping points, such as the need for
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
positivetipping points in energy transitions to avoid
negativeEarth system tipping points, do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed interventions could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people. We unpack these ideas in the context of what they mean for the concept of tipping points, using a critical decolonial view from the Global South.
Avit Bhowmik, Mark S. McCaffrey, and Oliver Kunkel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2588, 2024
Preprint archived
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Triggering positive social tipping requires leverage points. Education can create action at scale and self-efficacy and initiate active hope to trigger positive tipping dynamics across societies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
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Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
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This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laurie Laybourn, Joseph Evans, and James Dyke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1171–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023, 2023
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The worsening effects of climate change and other environmental problems impact the ability of societies to tackle the causes of these problems. We term this "derailment risk": the risk that the path to re-stabilising the natural world is derailed by the worsening instability of societies. But, conversely, instability can also provide opportunities for positive change. Acting on derailment risk is needed to ensure positive change can win out and so is critical for avoiding catastrophic outcomes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jennifer Williamson, Chris Evans, Bryan Spears, Amy Pickard, Pippa J. Chapman, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Fraser Leith, Susan Waldron, and Don Monteith
Biogeosciences, 20, 3751–3766, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3751-2023, 2023
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Managing drinking water catchments to minimise water colour could reduce costs for water companies and save their customers money. Brown-coloured water comes from peat soils, primarily around upland reservoirs. Management practices, including blocking drains, removing conifers, restoring peatland plants and reducing burning, have been used to try and reduce water colour. This work brings together published evidence of the effectiveness of these practices to aid water industry decision-making.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Adam William Bateson, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Christopher Horvat
The Cryosphere, 17, 3575–3591, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, 2023
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Sea ice is composed of small, discrete pieces of ice called floes, whose size distribution plays a critical role in the interactions between the sea ice, ocean and atmosphere. This study provides an assessment of sea ice models using new high-resolution floe size distribution observations, revealing considerable differences between them. These findings point not only to the limitations in models but also to the need for more high-resolution observations to validate and calibrate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
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The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Adam William Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 16, 2565–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, 2022
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Numerical models are used to understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover. The sea ice cover is formed of pieces of ice called floes. Several recent studies have proposed variable floe size models to replace the standard model assumption of a fixed floe size. In this study we show the need to include floe fragmentation processes in these variable floe size models and demonstrate that model design can determine the impact of floe size on size ice evolution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hanna K. Lappalainen, Tuukka Petäjä, Timo Vihma, Jouni Räisänen, Alexander Baklanov, Sergey Chalov, Igor Esau, Ekaterina Ezhova, Matti Leppäranta, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Jukka Pumpanen, Meinrat O. Andreae, Mikhail Arshinov, Eija Asmi, Jianhui Bai, Igor Bashmachnikov, Boris Belan, Federico Bianchi, Boris Biskaborn, Michael Boy, Jaana Bäck, Bin Cheng, Natalia Chubarova, Jonathan Duplissy, Egor Dyukarev, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Martin Forsius, Martin Heimann, Sirkku Juhola, Vladimir Konovalov, Igor Konovalov, Pavel Konstantinov, Kajar Köster, Elena Lapshina, Anna Lintunen, Alexander Mahura, Risto Makkonen, Svetlana Malkhazova, Ivan Mammarella, Stefano Mammola, Stephany Buenrostro Mazon, Outi Meinander, Eugene Mikhailov, Victoria Miles, Stanislav Myslenkov, Dmitry Orlov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Roberta Pirazzini, Olga Popovicheva, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Torsten Sachs, Vladimir Shevchenko, Andrey Skorokhod, Andreas Stohl, Elli Suhonen, Erik S. Thomson, Marina Tsidilina, Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, Petteri Uotila, Aki Virkkula, Nadezhda Voropay, Tobias Wolf, Sayaka Yasunaka, Jiahua Zhang, Yubao Qiu, Aijun Ding, Huadong Guo, Valery Bondur, Nikolay Kasimov, Sergej Zilitinkevich, Veli-Matti Kerminen, and Markku Kulmala
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4413–4469, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4413-2022, 2022
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We summarize results during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, especially from Russia, and introduce recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
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In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katja Weigel, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Kemisola Adeniyi, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Peter Berg, Louis-Philippe Caron, Irene Cionni, Susanna Corti, Niels Drost, Alasdair Hunter, Llorenç Lledó, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Aytaç Paçal, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Valeriu Predoi, Marit Sandstad, Jana Sillmann, Andreas Sterl, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3159–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, 2021
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This work presents new diagnostics for the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The ESMValTool v2.0 diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with a focus on the ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
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Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Benjamin Poschlod, Ralf Ludwig, and Jana Sillmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 983–1003, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-983-2021, 2021
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This study provides a homogeneous data set of 10-year rainfall return levels based on 50 simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 (CRCM5). In order to evaluate its quality, the return levels are compared to those of observation-based rainfall of 16 European countries from 32 different sources. The CRCM5 is able to capture the general spatial pattern of observed extreme precipitation, and also the intensity is reproduced in 77 % of the area for rainfall durations of 3 h and longer.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
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Short summary
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system...
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