Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
Research article
 | 
09 Jan 2024
Research article |  | 09 Jan 2024

Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation

Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, and Wolfgang A. Müller

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Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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Cited articles

Årthun, M., Kolstad, E. W., Eldevik, T., and Keenlyside, N. S.: Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 3597–3604, https://doi.org/10.1002/2018gl077401, 2018. a, b
Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Düsterhus, A., Müller, W. A., Barnes, E. A., and Baehr, J.: Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL100727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100727, 2023. a
Borchert, L. F., Pohlmann, H., Baehr, J., Neddermann, N.-C., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., and Müller, W. A.: Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14042–14051, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085385, 2019. a, b
Callahan, C. W. and Mankin, J. S.: Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth, Sci. Adv., 8, eadd3726, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add3726, 2022. a
Cane, M. A., Clement, A. C., Murphy, L. N., and Bellomo, K.: Low-Pass Filtering, Heat Flux, and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, J. Clim., 30, 7529–7553, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0810.1, 2017. a
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European summer temperatures are influenced by mechanisms on different timescales. We find that timescales of 5 to 10 years dominate the changes in summer temperature over large parts of the continent. Further, we find that specific processes within the North Atlantic, affecting the storage and transport of heat, cause changes in the atmosphere and extremely warm European summers. Our findings could be used for better forecasts of extremely warm European summers several years ahead.
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