Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-835-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-835-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Aug 2023
Research article |
| 29 Aug 2023
| 29 Aug 2023
The global impact of the transport sectors on the atmospheric aerosol and the resulting climate effects under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Johannes Hendricks
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Sabine Brinkop
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
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Using a global aerosol model, we estimate the impact of aviation emissions on aerosol and climate in 2030 for different scenarios. The aviation impacts on particle number are found to be much more important than the impact on aerosol mass and significantly contribute to the overall increase in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030. This leads to a large aviation-induced climate effect (mostly driven by aerosol-cloud interactions), a factor of 2 to 4 larger than in the year 2000.
M. Righi, V. Eyring, K.-D. Gottschaldt, C. Klinger, F. Frank, P. Jöckel, and I. Cionni
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 733–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-733-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-733-2015, 2015
M. Righi, J. Hendricks, and R. Sausen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-633-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-633-2015, 2015
J. C. Kaiser, J. Hendricks, M. Righi, N. Riemer, R. A. Zaveri, S. Metzger, and V. Aquila
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1137–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1137-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1137-2014, 2014
M. Righi, J. Hendricks, and R. Sausen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9939–9970, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9939-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
K. Gottschaldt, C. Voigt, P. Jöckel, M. Righi, R. Deckert, and S. Dietmüller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3003–3025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3003-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3003-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
Jingmin Li, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Christof G. Beer, Ulrike Burkhardt, and Anja Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12727–12747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aiming to understand underlying patterns and trends in aerosols, we characterize the spatial patterns and long-term evolution of lower tropospheric aerosols by clustering multiple aerosol properties from preindustrial times to the year 2050 under three Shared
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The results provide a clear and condensed picture of the spatial extent and distribution of aerosols for different time periods and emission scenarios.
Mariano Mertens, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Johannes Hendricks, Patrick Jöckel, Anna Lanteri, Sigrun Matthes, Vanessa S. Rieger, Mattia Righi, and Robin N. Thor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12079–12106, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We quantified the contributions of land transport, shipping, and aviation emissions to tropospheric ozone; its radiative forcing; and the reductions of the methane lifetime using chemistry-climate model simulations. The contributions were analysed for the conditions of 2015 and for three projections for the year 2050. The results highlight the challenges of mitigating ozone formed by emissions of the transport sector, caused by the non-linearitiy of the ozone chemistry and the long lifetime.
Christof G. Beer, Johannes Hendricks, and Mattia Righi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3217–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have important influences on cirrus clouds and the climate system; however, the understanding of their global impacts is still uncertain. We perform numerical simulations with a global aerosol–climate model to analyse INP-induced cirrus changes and the resulting climate impacts. We evaluate various sources of uncertainties, e.g. the ice-nucleating ability of INPs and the role of model dynamics, and provide a new estimate for the global INP–cirrus effect.
Robin N. Thor, Mariano Mertens, Sigrun Matthes, Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Sabine Brinkop, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Steven Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1459–1466, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between two versions of a data product which is widely used by researchers. From the available documentation, we do not expect such an inconsistency. We run a chemistry–climate model to compute the effect of the inconsistency in emissions on atmospheric chemistry and radiation and find that the radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6 % higher when using the less recent version of the data.
Christof G. Beer, Johannes Hendricks, and Mattia Righi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15887–15907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15887-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15887-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have important influences on cirrus clouds and the climate system; however, their global atmospheric distribution in the cirrus regime is still very uncertain. We present a global climatology of INPs under cirrus conditions derived from model simulations, considering the mineral dust, soot, crystalline ammonium sulfate, and glassy organics INP types. The comparison of respective INP concentrations indicates the large importance of ammonium sulfate particles.
Matthias Nützel, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Hella Garny, Patrick Jöckel, Laura L. Pan, and Mijeong Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15659–15683, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15659-2022, 2022
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During the Asian summer monsoon season, a large high-pressure system is present at levels close to the tropopause above Asia. We analyse how air masses are transported from surface levels to this high-pressure system, which shows distinct features from the surrounding air masses. To this end, we employ multiannual data from two complementary models that allow us to analyse the climatology as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variability of these transport pathways.
Simon Kirschler, Christiane Voigt, Bruce Anderson, Ramon Campos Braga, Gao Chen, Andrea F. Corral, Ewan Crosbie, Hossein Dadashazar, Richard A. Ferrare, Valerian Hahn, Johannes Hendricks, Stefan Kaufmann, Richard Moore, Mira L. Pöhlker, Claire Robinson, Amy J. Scarino, Dominik Schollmayer, Michael A. Shook, K. Lee Thornhill, Edward Winstead, Luke D. Ziemba, and Armin Sorooshian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8299–8319, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8299-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8299-2022, 2022
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In this study we show that the vertical velocity dominantly impacts the cloud droplet number concentration (NC) of low-level clouds over the western North Atlantic in the winter and summer season, while the cloud condensation nuclei concentration, aerosol size distribution and chemical composition impact NC within a season. The observational data presented in this study can evaluate and improve the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions for a wide range of conditions.
Jingmin Li, Johannes Hendricks, Mattia Righi, and Christof G. Beer
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 509–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-509-2022, 2022
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The growing complexity of global aerosol models results in a large number of parameters that describe the aerosol number, size, and composition. This makes the analysis, evaluation, and interpretation of the model results a challenge. To overcome this difficulty, we apply a machine learning classification method to identify clusters of specific aerosol types in global aerosol simulations. Our results demonstrate the spatial distributions and characteristics of these identified aerosol clusters.
Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, and Christof Gerhard Beer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17267–17289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17267-2021, 2021
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A global climate model is applied to simulate the impact of aviation soot on natural cirrus clouds. A large number of numerical experiments are performed to analyse how the quantification of the resulting climate impact is affected by known uncertainties. These concern the ability of aviation soot to nucleate ice and the role of model dynamics. Our results show that both aspects are important for the quantification of this effect and that discrepancies among different model studies still exist.
Christine Frömming, Volker Grewe, Sabine Brinkop, Patrick Jöckel, Amund S. Haslerud, Simon Rosanka, Jesper van Manen, and Sigrun Matthes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9151–9172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9151-2021, 2021
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The influence of weather situations on non-CO2 aviation climate impact is investigated to identify systematic weather-related sensitivities. If aircraft avoid the most sensitive areas, climate impact might be reduced. Enhanced significance is found for emission in relation to high-pressure systems, jet stream, polar night, and tropopause altitude. The results represent a comprehensive data set for studies aiming at weather-dependent flight trajectory optimization to reduce total climate impact.
Katja Weigel, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Kemisola Adeniyi, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Peter Berg, Louis-Philippe Caron, Irene Cionni, Susanna Corti, Niels Drost, Alasdair Hunter, Llorenç Lledó, Christian Wilhelm Mohr, Aytaç Paçal, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Valeriu Predoi, Marit Sandstad, Jana Sillmann, Andreas Sterl, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, and Veronika Eyring
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3159–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3159-2021, 2021
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This work presents new diagnostics for the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 on the hydrological cycle, extreme events, impact assessment, regional evaluations, and ensemble member selection. The ESMValTool v2.0 diagnostics are developed by a large community of scientists aiming to facilitate the evaluation and comparison of Earth system models (ESMs) with a focus on the ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Markus Kilian, Sabine Brinkop, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11697–11715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11697-2020, 2020
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After the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991, ozone decreased in the tropics and increased in the midlatitudes and polar regions for 1 year. The change in the ozone column is solely a result of the volcanic heating, followed by an ozone decrease in the higher latitudes. This is caused by the volcanic aerosol, which changes the heterogeneous chemistry and thus the catalytic ozone loss cycles. Vertical transport of water vapour is enhanced by volcanic heating and increases methane.
Christof G. Beer, Johannes Hendricks, Mattia Righi, Bernd Heinold, Ina Tegen, Silke Groß, Daniel Sauer, Adrian Walser, and Bernadett Weinzierl
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4287–4303, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4287-2020, 2020
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Mineral dust aerosol plays an important role in the climate system. Previously, dust emissions have often been represented in global models by prescribed monthly-mean emission fields representative of a specific year. We now apply an online calculation of wind-driven dust emissions. This results in an improved agreement with observations, due to a better representation of the highly variable dust emissions. Increasing the model resolution led to an additional performance gain.
Axel Lauer, Veronika Eyring, Omar Bellprat, Lisa Bock, Bettina K. Gier, Alasdair Hunter, Ruth Lorenz, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Daniel Senftleben, Katja Weigel, and Sabrina Zechlau
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4205–4228, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4205-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4205-2020, 2020
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool is a community software tool designed for evaluation and analysis of climate models. New features of version 2.0 include analysis scripts for important large-scale features in climate models, diagnostics for extreme events, regional model and impact evaluation. In this paper, newly implemented climate metrics, emergent constraints for climate-relevant feedbacks and diagnostics for future model projections are described and illustrated with examples.
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, Ulrike Lohmann, Christof Gerhard Beer, Valerian Hahn, Bernd Heinold, Romy Heller, Martina Krämer, Michael Ponater, Christian Rolf, Ina Tegen, and Christiane Voigt
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1635–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1635-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1635-2020, 2020
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A new cloud microphysical scheme is implemented in the global EMAC-MADE3 aerosol model and evaluated. The new scheme features a detailed parameterization for aerosol-driven ice formation in cirrus clouds, accounting for the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice formation processes. The comparison against satellite data and in situ measurements shows that the model performance is in line with similar global coupled models featuring ice cloud parameterizations.
Mattia Righi, Bouwe Andela, Veronika Eyring, Axel Lauer, Valeriu Predoi, Manuel Schlund, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Lisa Bock, Björn Brötz, Lee de Mora, Faruk Diblen, Laura Dreyer, Niels Drost, Paul Earnshaw, Birgit Hassler, Nikolay Koldunov, Bill Little, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1179–1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1179-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the second major release of ESMValTool, a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models. This new version features a brand new design, with an improved interface and a revised preprocessor. It takes advantage of state-of-the-art computational libraries and methods to deploy efficient and user-friendly data processing, improving the performance over its predecessor by more than a factor of 30.
Sabine Brinkop and Patrick Jöckel
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1991–2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1991-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1991-2019, 2019
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We have extended ATTILA (Atmospheric Tracer Transport in a LAgrangian model), a Lagrangian tracer transport scheme which is online coupled to the global ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, with a combination of newly developed and modified physical routines and new diagnostic and infrastructure submodels. The results show an improvement of the tracer transport into and within the stratosphere due to the newly implemented diabatic vertical velocity.
J. Christopher Kaiser, Johannes Hendricks, Mattia Righi, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Konrad Kandler, Bernadett Weinzierl, Daniel Sauer, Katharina Heimerl, Joshua P. Schwarz, Anne E. Perring, and Thomas Popp
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 541–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-541-2019, 2019
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The implementation of the aerosol microphysics submodel MADE3 into the global atmospheric chemistry model EMAC is described and evaluated against an extensive pool of observational data, focusing on aerosol mass and number concentrations, size distributions, composition, and optical properties. EMAC (MADE3) is able to reproduce main aerosol properties reasonably well, in line with the performance of other global aerosol models.
Stefan Lossow, Dale F. Hurst, Karen H. Rosenlof, Gabriele P. Stiller, Thomas von Clarmann, Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Doug E. Kinnison, Johannes Plieninger, David A. Plummer, Felix Ploeger, William G. Read, Ellis E. Remsberg, James M. Russell, and Mengchu Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8331–8351, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8331-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8331-2018, 2018
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Trend estimates of lower stratospheric H2O derived from the FPH observations at Boulder and a merged zonal mean satellite data set clearly differ for the time period from the late 1980s to 2010. We investigate if a sampling bias between Boulder and the zonal mean around the Boulder latitude can explain these trend discrepancies. Typically they are small and not sufficient to explain the trend discrepancies in the observational database.
Veronika Eyring, Peter J. Gleckler, Christoph Heinze, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, V. Balaji, Eric Guilyardi, Sylvie Joussaume, Stephan Kindermann, Bryan N. Lawrence, Gerald A. Meehl, Mattia Righi, and Dean N. Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 813–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, 2016
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We argue that the CMIP community has reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently to enable a systematic and rapid performance assessment of the large number of models participating in CMIP, and we announce our intention to implement such a system for CMIP6. At the same time, continuous scientific research is required to develop innovative metrics and diagnostics that help narrowing the spread in climate projections.
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016
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Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Sabine Brinkop, Martin Dameris, Patrick Jöckel, Hella Garny, Stefan Lossow, and Gabriele Stiller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8125–8140, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8125-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8125-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the water vapour decline in the stratosphere beginning in the year 2000 and other similarly strong stratospheric water vapour reductions. The driving forces are tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to coincidence with a preceding ENSO event and supported by the west to east change of the QBO.
There are indications that both SSTs and the specific dynamical state of the atmosphere contribute to the long period of low water vapour values from 2001 to 2006.
Simone Dietmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Markus Kunze, Catrin Gellhorn, Sabine Brinkop, Christine Frömming, Michael Ponater, Benedikt Steil, Axel Lauer, and Johannes Hendricks
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2209–2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, 2016
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Four new radiation related submodels (RAD, AEROPT, CLOUDOPT, and ORBIT) are available within the MESSy framework now. They are largely based on the original radiation scheme of ECHAM5. RAD simulates radiative transfer, AEROPT calculates aerosol optical properties, CLOUDOPT calculates cloud optical properties, and ORBIT is responsible for Earth orbit calculations. Multiple diagnostic calls of the radiation routine are possible, so radiative forcing can be calculated during the model simulation.
Michael Löffler, Sabine Brinkop, and Patrick Jöckel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6547–6562, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6547-2016, 2016
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After the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991, stratospheric water vapour is significantly increased. This results from increased stratospheric heating rates due to volcanic aerosol and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as important sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere.
Marje Prank, Mikhail Sofiev, Svetlana Tsyro, Carlijn Hendriks, Valiyaveetil Semeena, Xavier Vazhappilly Francis, Tim Butler, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Rainer Friedrich, Johannes Hendricks, Xin Kong, Mark Lawrence, Mattia Righi, Zissis Samaras, Robert Sausen, Jaakko Kukkonen, and Ranjeet Sokhi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6041–6070, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6041-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6041-2016, 2016
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Aerosol composition in Europe was simulated by four chemistry transport models and compared to observations to identify the most prominent areas for model improvement. Notable differences were found between the models' predictions, attributable to different treatment or omission of aerosol sources and processes. All models underestimated the observed concentrations by 10–60 %, mostly due to under-predicting the carbonaceous and mineral particles and omitting the aerosol-bound water.
Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016
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A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations.
Mattia Righi, Johannes Hendricks, and Robert Sausen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4481–4495, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4481-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4481-2016, 2016
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Using a global aerosol model, we estimate the impact of aviation emissions on aerosol and climate in 2030 for different scenarios. The aviation impacts on particle number are found to be much more important than the impact on aerosol mass and significantly contribute to the overall increase in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030. This leads to a large aviation-induced climate effect (mostly driven by aerosol-cloud interactions), a factor of 2 to 4 larger than in the year 2000.
Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Andrea Pozzer, Markus Kunze, Oliver Kirner, Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer, Sabine Brinkop, Duy S. Cai, Christoph Dyroff, Johannes Eckstein, Franziska Frank, Hella Garny, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Phoebe Graf, Volker Grewe, Astrid Kerkweg, Bastian Kern, Sigrun Matthes, Mariano Mertens, Stefanie Meul, Marco Neumaier, Matthias Nützel, Sophie Oberländer-Hayn, Roland Ruhnke, Theresa Runde, Rolf Sander, Dieter Scharffe, and Andreas Zahn
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1153–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1153-2016, 2016
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With an advanced numerical global chemistry climate model (CCM) we performed several detailed
combined hind-cast and projection simulations of the period 1950 to 2100 to assess the
past, present, and potential future dynamical and chemical state of the Earth atmosphere.
The manuscript documents the model and the various applied model set-ups and provides
a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective as a quality check of the data.
R. Eichinger, P. Jöckel, S. Brinkop, M. Werner, and S. Lossow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5537–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5537-2015, 2015
M. Righi, V. Eyring, K.-D. Gottschaldt, C. Klinger, F. Frank, P. Jöckel, and I. Cionni
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 733–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-733-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-733-2015, 2015
M. Righi, J. Hendricks, and R. Sausen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-633-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-633-2015, 2015
J. C. Kaiser, J. Hendricks, M. Righi, N. Riemer, R. A. Zaveri, S. Metzger, and V. Aquila
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1137–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1137-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1137-2014, 2014
M. Kuebbeler, U. Lohmann, J. Hendricks, and B. Kärcher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3027–3046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3027-2014, 2014
V. Grewe, C. Frömming, S. Matthes, S. Brinkop, M. Ponater, S. Dietmüller, P. Jöckel, H. Garny, E. Tsati, K. Dahlmann, O. A. Søvde, J. Fuglestvedt, T. K. Berntsen, K. P. Shine, E. A. Irvine, T. Champougny, and P. Hullah
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 175–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-175-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-175-2014, 2014
M. Righi, J. Hendricks, and R. Sausen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9939–9970, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9939-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
K. Gottschaldt, C. Voigt, P. Jöckel, M. Righi, R. Deckert, and S. Dietmüller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3003–3025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3003-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3003-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
K. Gierens and S. Brinkop
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11933–11942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11933-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11933-2012, 2012
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Short summary
A global climate model is applied to quantify the impact of land transport, shipping, and aviation on aerosol and climate. The simulations show that these sectors provide relevant contributions to aerosol concentrations on the global scale and have a significant cooling effect on climate, which partly offsets their CO2 warming. Future projections under different scenarios show how the transport impacts can be related to the underlying storylines, with relevant consequences for policy-making.
A global climate model is applied to quantify the impact of land transport, shipping, and...
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