Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
Research article
 | 
20 Jun 2023
Research article |  | 20 Jun 2023

Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing

Saïd Qasmi

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Short summary
A new statistical method combining climate models and observations confirms the anthropogenic role in the cooling of the North Atlantic warming hole. Aerosols increase sea surface temperature (SST), while greenhouse gases contribute to the cooling over the 1870–2020 period. The method is able to reduce model uncertainty in the SST projections by 65% in the short term and up to 50% in the long term, excluding previous unlikely temperature increase scenarios.
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