Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| Highlight paper
| 
14 Jun 2023
Review | Highlight paper |
| 14 Jun 2023
| 14 Jun 2023
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems
Paul D. L. Ritchie
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Hassan Alkhayuon
School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork, Western Road, Cork, T12 XF62, Ireland
Peter M. Cox
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Sebastian Wieczorek
School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork, Western Road, Cork, T12 XF62, Ireland
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The role of time-varying external factors in the intensification of tropical cyclones S. Watson & C. Quinn 10.5194/npg-31-381-2024
- Deep learning for predicting rate-induced tipping Y. Huang et al. 10.1038/s42256-024-00937-0
- Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics U. Feudel 10.5194/npg-30-481-2023
- Predicting transient dynamics in a model of reed musical instrument with slowly time-varying control parameter B. Bergeot et al. 10.1063/5.0190512
- Emulating inconsistencies in stratospheric aerosol injection J. Farley et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad519c
- Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points J. Abrams et al. 10.1029/2022EF003250
- Rate-induced tipping in complex high-dimensional ecological networks S. Panahi et al. 10.1073/pnas.2308820120
- Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model O. Mehling et al. 10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043
- Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions T. Mitsui & N. Boers 10.5194/cp-20-683-2024
- Rate-induced tracking for concave or d-concave transitions in a time-dependent environment with application in ecology J. Dueñas et al. 10.1063/5.0159237
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. 10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- The greenhouse gas footprint of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported from the United States R. Howarth 10.1002/ese3.1934
- The time-evolving epileptic brain network: concepts, definitions, accomplishments, perspectives T. Bröhl et al. 10.3389/fnetp.2023.1338864
- Tipping in complex systems under fast variations of parameters I. Pavithran et al. 10.1063/5.0162503
- Partial tipping in bistable ecological systems under periodic environmental variability A. Basak et al. 10.1063/5.0215157
- Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits S. Wieczorek et al. 10.1088/1361-6544/accb37
- Rate and memory effects in bifurcation-induced tipping J. Cantisán et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.108.024203
- Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points R. Wood et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09859-3
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The role of time-varying external factors in the intensification of tropical cyclones S. Watson & C. Quinn 10.5194/npg-31-381-2024
- Deep learning for predicting rate-induced tipping Y. Huang et al. 10.1038/s42256-024-00937-0
- Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics U. Feudel 10.5194/npg-30-481-2023
- Predicting transient dynamics in a model of reed musical instrument with slowly time-varying control parameter B. Bergeot et al. 10.1063/5.0190512
- Emulating inconsistencies in stratospheric aerosol injection J. Farley et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad519c
- Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points J. Abrams et al. 10.1029/2022EF003250
- Rate-induced tipping in complex high-dimensional ecological networks S. Panahi et al. 10.1073/pnas.2308820120
- Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model O. Mehling et al. 10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043
- Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions T. Mitsui & N. Boers 10.5194/cp-20-683-2024
- Rate-induced tracking for concave or d-concave transitions in a time-dependent environment with application in ecology J. Dueñas et al. 10.1063/5.0159237
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. 10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- The greenhouse gas footprint of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported from the United States R. Howarth 10.1002/ese3.1934
- The time-evolving epileptic brain network: concepts, definitions, accomplishments, perspectives T. Bröhl et al. 10.3389/fnetp.2023.1338864
- Tipping in complex systems under fast variations of parameters I. Pavithran et al. 10.1063/5.0162503
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Partial tipping in bistable ecological systems under periodic environmental variability A. Basak et al. 10.1063/5.0215157
- Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits S. Wieczorek et al. 10.1088/1361-6544/accb37
- Rate and memory effects in bifurcation-induced tipping J. Cantisán et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.108.024203
- Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points R. Wood et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09859-3
Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
Chief editor
Tipping points have potentially major detrimental impacts on natural and human systems. This study highlights how the rate of change in external conditions is arguably one of the key tipping mechanisms for both natural and human systems in the human-dominated anthropocene. This notion of rate-induced tipping -- namely an instability that occurs when external conditions vary faster than some critical rate -- will likely become an increasingly important topic of scientific research in the coming years.
Tipping points have potentially major detrimental impacts on natural and human systems. This...
Short summary
Complex systems can undergo abrupt changes or tipping points when external forcing crosses a critical level and are of increasing concern because of their severe impacts. However, tipping points can also occur when the external forcing changes too quickly without crossing any critical levels, which is very relevant for Earth’s systems and contemporary climate. We give an intuitive explanation of such rate-induced tipping and provide illustrative examples from natural and human systems.
Complex systems can undergo abrupt changes or tipping points when external forcing crosses a...
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