Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| Highlight paper
| 
14 Jun 2023
Review | Highlight paper |
| 14 Jun 2023
| 14 Jun 2023
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems
Paul D. L. Ritchie
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Hassan Alkhayuon
School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork, Western Road, Cork, T12 XF62, Ireland
Peter M. Cox
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Sebastian Wieczorek
School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork, Western Road, Cork, T12 XF62, Ireland
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Total article views: 11,420 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Total article views: 9,559 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 9,176 with geography defined
and 383 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 1,861 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 1,846 with geography defined
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Cited
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The role of time-varying external factors in the intensification of tropical cyclones S. Watson & C. Quinn
- Deep learning for predicting rate-induced tipping Y. Huang et al.
- Physics of an AMOC overshoot in a box model J. Soons et al.
- Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics U. Feudel
- Predicting transient dynamics in a model of reed musical instrument with slowly time-varying control parameter B. Bergeot et al.
- Emulating inconsistencies in stratospheric aerosol injection J. Farley et al.
- Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points J. Abrams et al.
- The effect of CO 2 ramping rate on the transient weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation C. Hankel
- Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model O. Mehling et al.
- Generalized paradox of enrichment: noise-driven rare rarity in degraded ecological systems S. Panahi et al.
- Traveling vegetation–herbivore waves may sustain ecosystems threatened by droughts and population growth J. Singha et al.
- The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority J. Everall et al.
- Pace in concert with phase: rate-induced phase-tipping in birhythmic oscillators R. Kumar K et al.
- Criticality governs response dynamics and entrainment of periodically forced ghost cycles D. Koch et al.
- Global phase-space approach to rate-induced tipping: A brief review S. Panahi & Y. Lai
- Integrating tipping point concepts across diverse systems J. Abrams et al.
- The greenhouse gas footprint of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported from the United States R. Howarth
- The time-evolving epileptic brain network: concepts, definitions, accomplishments, perspectives T. Bröhl et al.
- Local nearby bifurcations lead to synergies in critical slowing down: The case of mushroom bifurcations M. Fucho-Rius et al.
- Multi‐Stability of the Present‐Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation H. Dijkstra et al.
- A minőségi növekedés felé – a nemnövekedés értékelése O. Kovács
- Basins of attraction in a dynamical system with a time-varying control parameter: The case of attack transients in a simple model of reed musical instrument S. Terrien et al.
- Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements N. Boers et al.
- Rate-induced tipping in complex high-dimensional ecological networks S. Panahi et al.
- Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions T. Mitsui & N. Boers
- The interdisciplinarity of degrowth: cross-fertilising disciplines for well-being O. Kovacs
- Rate-induced tracking for concave or d-concave transitions in a time-dependent environment with application in ecology J. Dueñas et al.
- Deep learning at the forefront of detecting tipping points S. Deb & P. Dutta
- Tipping detection using climate networks L. Moinat et al.
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al.
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al.
- Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds K. Lux-Gottschalk & P. Ritchie
- Tipping in complex systems under fast variations of parameters I. Pavithran et al.
- Rate-induced tipping in a lake eutrophication model coupled with human activities A. Yang et al.
- Can spatial self-organization inhibit evolutionary adaptation? B. Bera et al.
- Rate-induced biosphere collapse in the Daisyworld model C. Arnscheidt & H. Alkhayuon
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The role of time-varying external factors in the intensification of tropical cyclones S. Watson & C. Quinn
- Deep learning for predicting rate-induced tipping Y. Huang et al.
- Physics of an AMOC overshoot in a box model J. Soons et al.
- Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics U. Feudel
- Predicting transient dynamics in a model of reed musical instrument with slowly time-varying control parameter B. Bergeot et al.
- Emulating inconsistencies in stratospheric aerosol injection J. Farley et al.
- Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points J. Abrams et al.
- The effect of CO 2 ramping rate on the transient weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation C. Hankel
- Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model O. Mehling et al.
- Generalized paradox of enrichment: noise-driven rare rarity in degraded ecological systems S. Panahi et al.
- Traveling vegetation–herbivore waves may sustain ecosystems threatened by droughts and population growth J. Singha et al.
- The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority J. Everall et al.
- Pace in concert with phase: rate-induced phase-tipping in birhythmic oscillators R. Kumar K et al.
- Criticality governs response dynamics and entrainment of periodically forced ghost cycles D. Koch et al.
- Global phase-space approach to rate-induced tipping: A brief review S. Panahi & Y. Lai
- Integrating tipping point concepts across diverse systems J. Abrams et al.
- The greenhouse gas footprint of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported from the United States R. Howarth
- The time-evolving epileptic brain network: concepts, definitions, accomplishments, perspectives T. Bröhl et al.
- Local nearby bifurcations lead to synergies in critical slowing down: The case of mushroom bifurcations M. Fucho-Rius et al.
- Multi‐Stability of the Present‐Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation H. Dijkstra et al.
- A minőségi növekedés felé – a nemnövekedés értékelése O. Kovács
- Basins of attraction in a dynamical system with a time-varying control parameter: The case of attack transients in a simple model of reed musical instrument S. Terrien et al.
- Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements N. Boers et al.
- Rate-induced tipping in complex high-dimensional ecological networks S. Panahi et al.
- Statistical precursor signals for Dansgaard–Oeschger cooling transitions T. Mitsui & N. Boers
- The interdisciplinarity of degrowth: cross-fertilising disciplines for well-being O. Kovacs
- Rate-induced tracking for concave or d-concave transitions in a time-dependent environment with application in ecology J. Dueñas et al.
- Deep learning at the forefront of detecting tipping points S. Deb & P. Dutta
- Tipping detection using climate networks L. Moinat et al.
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al.
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al.
- Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds K. Lux-Gottschalk & P. Ritchie
- Tipping in complex systems under fast variations of parameters I. Pavithran et al.
- Rate-induced tipping in a lake eutrophication model coupled with human activities A. Yang et al.
- Can spatial self-organization inhibit evolutionary adaptation? B. Bera et al.
- Rate-induced biosphere collapse in the Daisyworld model C. Arnscheidt & H. Alkhayuon
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 May 2026
Editorial statement
Tipping points have potentially major detrimental impacts on natural and human systems. This study highlights how the rate of change in external conditions is arguably one of the key tipping mechanisms for both natural and human systems in the human-dominated anthropocene. This notion of rate-induced tipping -- namely an instability that occurs when external conditions vary faster than some critical rate -- will likely become an increasingly important topic of scientific research in the coming years.
Tipping points have potentially major detrimental impacts on natural and human systems. This...
Short summary
Complex systems can undergo abrupt changes or tipping points when external forcing crosses a critical level and are of increasing concern because of their severe impacts. However, tipping points can also occur when the external forcing changes too quickly without crossing any critical levels, which is very relevant for Earth’s systems and contemporary climate. We give an intuitive explanation of such rate-induced tipping and provide illustrative examples from natural and human systems.
Complex systems can undergo abrupt changes or tipping points when external forcing crosses a...
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