Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023
Research article
 | 
14 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 14 Nov 2023

Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition

Laurie Laybourn, Joseph Evans, and James Dyke

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Latest update: 23 Nov 2024
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Short summary
The worsening effects of climate change and other environmental problems impact the ability of societies to tackle the causes of these problems. We term this "derailment risk": the risk that the path to re-stabilising the natural world is derailed by the worsening instability of societies. But, conversely, instability can also provide opportunities for positive change. Acting on derailment risk is needed to ensure positive change can win out and so is critical for avoiding catastrophic outcomes.
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