Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
Research article
 | 
14 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 14 Nov 2023

Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition

Laurie Laybourn, Joseph Evans, and James Dyke

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Short summary
The worsening effects of climate change and other environmental problems impact the ability of societies to tackle the causes of these problems. We term this "derailment risk": the risk that the path to re-stabilising the natural world is derailed by the worsening instability of societies. But, conversely, instability can also provide opportunities for positive change. Acting on derailment risk is needed to ensure positive change can win out and so is critical for avoiding catastrophic outcomes.
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Tipping points in the Anthropocene
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