Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 28 Apr 2022
| 28 Apr 2022
MESMER-M: an Earth system model emulator for spatially resolved monthly temperature
Shruti Nath
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Quentin Lejeune
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
Lea Beusch
Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
now at: Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
now at: MeteoSwiss, via ai Monti 146, 6605 Locarno Monti, Switzerland
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys) and Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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Cited
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Emulators of Climate Model Output C. Tebaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012125-085838
- STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations C. Tebaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022
- Breaching 1.5 °C: Give me the odds J. Vera-Valdés & O. Kvist https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.07.004
- TIMBER v0.1: a conceptual framework for emulating temperature responses to tree cover change S. Nath et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023
- A Climate Intervention Dynamical Emulator (CIDER) for scenario space exploration J. Farley et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1809-2026
- Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models A. Snyder et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024
- Advances in land surface forecasting: a comparison of LSTM, gradient boosting, and feed-forward neural networks as prognostic state emulators in a case study with ecLand M. Wesselkamp et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-921-2025
- Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022 S. Nath et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671
- Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the rapid impact model emulator (RIME) E. Byers et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adee3d
- A machine learning approach to rapidly project climate responses under a multitude of net-zero emission pathways V. Kitsios et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01011-0
- Combating heat stress through urban planning: Integrated case studies for Lisbon and Islamabad N. Souverijns et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2026.105621
- Climate overshoot implications for local adaptation planning E. Theokritoff et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2025.2502111
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
- STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations A. Snyder et al. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.05525
- Emulating grid-based forest carbon dynamics using machine learning: an LPJ-GUESS v4.1.1 application C. Natel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4317-2025
- Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture Y. Quilcaille et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023
- Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: spatially explicit Earth system model emulation for monthly precipitation and temperature S. Schöngart et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024
- Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information P. Pfleiderer et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01597-w
- A new precipitation emulator (PREMU v1.0) for lower-complexity models G. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1277-2023
- Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS): A customizable dataset of emulated Earth System Model output B. Kravitz et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000159
- A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) C. Mathison et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025
- Framework for global emulation of extreme precipitation along global warming trajectories L. Pierini et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae5fad
- MESMER v1.0.0: consolidating the modular Earth system model emulator into a sustainable research software package V. Bauer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5669-2026
- RIME-X v1.0: combining simple climate models, Earth system models, and climate impact models into a unified statistical emulator for regional climate indicators N. Schwind et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6797-2026
- GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios R. Muñoz-Sánchez et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05496-6
- Climate variability can outweigh the influence of climate mean changes for extreme precipitation under global warming K. Nordling et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025
- METEORv1.0.1: a novel framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses M. Sandstad et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8269-2025
- An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields G. Geogdzhayev et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Emulators of Climate Model Output C. Tebaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012125-085838
- STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations C. Tebaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022
- Breaching 1.5 °C: Give me the odds J. Vera-Valdés & O. Kvist https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.07.004
- TIMBER v0.1: a conceptual framework for emulating temperature responses to tree cover change S. Nath et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023
- A Climate Intervention Dynamical Emulator (CIDER) for scenario space exploration J. Farley et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1809-2026
- Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models A. Snyder et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024
- Advances in land surface forecasting: a comparison of LSTM, gradient boosting, and feed-forward neural networks as prognostic state emulators in a case study with ecLand M. Wesselkamp et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-921-2025
- Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022 S. Nath et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671
- Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the rapid impact model emulator (RIME) E. Byers et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adee3d
- A machine learning approach to rapidly project climate responses under a multitude of net-zero emission pathways V. Kitsios et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01011-0
- Combating heat stress through urban planning: Integrated case studies for Lisbon and Islamabad N. Souverijns et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2026.105621
- Climate overshoot implications for local adaptation planning E. Theokritoff et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2025.2502111
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
- STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations A. Snyder et al. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.05525
- Emulating grid-based forest carbon dynamics using machine learning: an LPJ-GUESS v4.1.1 application C. Natel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4317-2025
- Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture Y. Quilcaille et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023
- Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: spatially explicit Earth system model emulation for monthly precipitation and temperature S. Schöngart et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024
- Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information P. Pfleiderer et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01597-w
- A new precipitation emulator (PREMU v1.0) for lower-complexity models G. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1277-2023
- Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS): A customizable dataset of emulated Earth System Model output B. Kravitz et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000159
- A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) C. Mathison et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025
- Framework for global emulation of extreme precipitation along global warming trajectories L. Pierini et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae5fad
- MESMER v1.0.0: consolidating the modular Earth system model emulator into a sustainable research software package V. Bauer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5669-2026
- RIME-X v1.0: combining simple climate models, Earth system models, and climate impact models into a unified statistical emulator for regional climate indicators N. Schwind et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6797-2026
- GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios R. Muñoz-Sánchez et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05496-6
- Climate variability can outweigh the influence of climate mean changes for extreme precipitation under global warming K. Nordling et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1659-2025
- METEORv1.0.1: a novel framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses M. Sandstad et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8269-2025
- An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields G. Geogdzhayev et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 10 Sep 2026
Short summary
Uncertainty within climate model projections on inter-annual timescales is largely affected by natural climate variability. Emulators are valuable tools for approximating climate model runs, allowing for easy exploration of such uncertainty spaces. This study takes a first step at building a spatially resolved, monthly temperature emulator that takes local yearly temperatures as the sole input, thus providing monthly temperature distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments.
Uncertainty within climate model projections on inter-annual timescales is largely affected by...
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