Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-321-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-321-2022
Research article
 | 
08 Feb 2022
Research article |  | 08 Feb 2022

The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Josep Cos, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Martin Jury, Raül Marcos, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Margarida Samsó

Data sets

GPCC U. Schneider, A. Becker, P. Finger, E. Rustemeier, and M. Ziese https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V2020_025

CRU I. Harris, T. J. Osborn, P. Jones, and D. Lister https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.04/cruts.2004151855.v4.04/

JRA55 S. Kobayashi, Y. Ota, Y. Harada, A. Ebita, M. Moriya, H. Onoda, K. Onogi, H. Kamahori, C. Kobayashi, H. Endo, K. Miyaoka, and K. Takahashi https://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html#reanalysis

ERA5 H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P.Berrisford, S.Hirahara, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, S. Abdalla, X. Abellan, G. Balsamo, P. Bechtold, G. Biavati, J. Bidlot, M. Bonavita, G. De Chiara, P. Dahlgren, D. Dee, M. Diamantakis, R. Dragani, J. Flemming, R. Forbes, M. Fuentes, A. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. Healy, R. J. Hogan, E. Hólm, M. Janisková, S. Keeley, P. Laloyaux, P. Lopez, C. Lupu, G. Radnoti, P. de Rosnay, I. Rozum, F. Vamborg, S. Villaume, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

BerkeleyEarth E. Muller, R. Muller, R. Rhode, Z. Hausfather, J. Sissener, M. Mossimann, and K. Hulac http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Gridded/Complete_TAVG_LatLong1.nc

HadSLP R. Allan and T. Ansell https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3937.1

CMIP5 Multiple research centers (refer to the ESGF data repository) https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/

CMIP6 Multiple research centers (refer to DOI) https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/cmip6-liu/?source_id=ACCESS-CM2,ACCESS-ESM1-5,AWI-CM-1-1-MR,BCC-CSM2-MR,CAMS-CSM1-0,CAS-ESM2-0,CESM2-WACCM,CIESM,CMCC-CM2-SR5,CNRM-CM6-1,CNRM-ESM2-1,CanESM5-CanOE,EC-Earth3,FGOALS-f3-L,FGOALS-g3,FIO-ESM-2-0,GFDL-ESM4,GISS

JRA55 output JMA https://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html#reanalysis

ERA5 output ECMWF https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5

CRU (v4.04) output UEA https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.04/cruts.2004151855.v4.04/

GPCC (v2018) output DWD https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V2020_025

BerkeleyEarth output BerkeleyEarth http://berkeleyearth.org/data/

HadSLP2 output UKMO https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Gridded/data.hadslp2.html

WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) ESGF https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/projects/esgf-liu

Model code and software

ESMValTool (v2.2.0) B. Andela, B. Broetz, L. de Mora, N. Drost, V. Eyring, N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, B. Mueller, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Zimmermann, K. Adeniyi, E. Arnone, O. Bellprat, P. Berg, L. Bock, L.-P. Caron, N. Carvalhais, I. Cionni, N. Cortesi, S. Corti, B. Crezee, E. L. Davin, P. Davini, C. Deser, F. Diblen, D. Docquier, L. Dreyer, C. Ehbrecht, P. Earnshaw, B. Gier, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P. Goodman, S. Hagemann, J. von Hardenberg, B. Hassler, A. Hunter, C. Kadow, S. Kindermann, S. Koirala, L. Lledó, Q. Lejeune, V. Lembo, B. Little, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, R. Lorenz, T. Lovato, V. Lucarini, F. Massonnet, C. W. Mohr, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Amarjiit, N. P. Pérez-Zanón, A. Phillips, J. Russell, M. Sandstad, A. Sellar, D. Senftleben, F. Serva, J. Sillmann, T. Stacke, R. Swaminathan, V. Torralba, and K. Weigel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4562215

ESMValCore (v2.3.0) B. Andela, B. Broetz, L. de Mora, N. Drost, V. Eyring, N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Zimmermann, L. Bock, F. Diblen, L. Dreyer, P. Earnshaw, B. Hassler, B. Little, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, S. Smeets, J. Camphuijsen, B. K. Gier, K. Weigel, M. Hauser, P. Kalverla, E. Galytska, J. Cos, I. Pelupessy, S. Koirala, T. Stacke, S. Alidoost, M. Jury, and S. Sénési https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4947127

Mediterranean projections (Version~3) J. Cos https://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.01b483fa953241b2b2d8f5242cae6e8c

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Short summary
The Mediterranean has been identified as being more affected by climate change than other regions. We find that amplified warming during summer and annual precipitation declines are expected for the 21st century and that the magnitude of the changes will mainly depend on greenhouse gas emissions. By applying a method giving more importance to models with greater performance and independence, we find that the differences between the last two community modelling efforts are reduced in the region.
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