Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Jan 2021
Research article |
| 06 Jan 2021
| 06 Jan 2021
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Sjoukje Y. Philip
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Mathias Hauser
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Mike Hobbins
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratories, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Niko Wanders
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Karin van der Wiel
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Ted I. E. Veldkamp
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Joyce Kimutai
Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi, Kenya
Chris Funk
U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA
Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
Friederike E. L. Otto
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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- Assessing rainfall variability, long-term trends, and drought incidences in the Tanzania part of the Kagera River sub-basin N. Tibangayuka et al. 10.1007/s12145-025-01699-y
- Hyper-resolution PCR-GLOBWB: opportunities and challenges from refining model spatial resolution to 1 km over the European continent J. Hoch et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1383-2023
- Extreme climate events in sub-Saharan Africa: A call for improving agricultural technology transfer to enhance adaptive capacity A. Ayanlade et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100311
- Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution G. van Oldenborgh et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7
- Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability P. Palmer et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x
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- Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer T. Beck et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2
- Focal-TSMP: deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation M. Shams Eddin & J. Gall 10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024
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- Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change F. Otto 10.1146/annurev-environ-112621-083538
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- Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa J. Kimutai et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100745
- Systemic risk and compound vulnerability impact pathways of food insecurity in Somalia L. Thalheimer et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100570
- Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on Future Unprecedented Droughts in California: Insights From Multiple Indices and Multi‐Model Projections Z. Zhou et al. 10.1029/2023EF003856
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- Projection of droughts in Amu river basin for shared socioeconomic pathways CMIP6 O. Salehie et al. 10.1007/s00704-022-04097-2
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- A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses S. Philip et al. 10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020
- Deciphering Impacts and Human Responses to a Changing Climate in East Africa L. Thalheimer et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.692114
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Latest update: 15 May 2025
Short summary
Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from observations and climate models to explore trends (1900–2018) in eastern African (EA) drought measures. However, no discernible trends are found in annual soil moisture or precipitation. Positive trends in potential evaporation indicate that for irrigated regions more water is now required to counteract increased evaporation. Precipitation deficit is, however, the most useful indicator of EA drought.
Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from...
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