Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 06 Nov 2020
| 06 Nov 2020
Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years
Jonas Van Breedam
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Heiko Goelzer
Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
now at: NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for
Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Philippe Huybrechts
Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
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Cited
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw J. Deutloff et al. 10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
- A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt M. Petrini et al. 10.5194/tc-19-63-2025
- Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate R. Greve & C. Chambers 10.1017/jog.2022.9
- Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet change (2011–2021) derived from CryoSat-2 S. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2023.100940
- Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method R. Greve et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.41
- Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios D. Höning et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2129
- Modelling evidence for late Eocene Antarctic glaciations J. Van Breedam et al. 10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117532
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. 10.1126/science.abn7950
- ESD Ideas: A weak positive feedback between sea level and the planetary albedo B. Marzeion 10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021
- SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios V. Couplet et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025
- Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods C. Yue et al. 10.3390/atmos12121569
- Hysteresis and orbital pacing of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023
- Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet N. Bochow et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
- Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse L. Pan et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abf7787
- A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0 J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021
- Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions D. Höning et al. 10.1029/2022GL101827
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of action M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae004
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw J. Deutloff et al. 10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
- A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt M. Petrini et al. 10.5194/tc-19-63-2025
- Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate R. Greve & C. Chambers 10.1017/jog.2022.9
- Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet change (2011–2021) derived from CryoSat-2 S. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2023.100940
- Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method R. Greve et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.41
- Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios D. Höning et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2129
- Modelling evidence for late Eocene Antarctic glaciations J. Van Breedam et al. 10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117532
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. 10.1126/science.abn7950
- ESD Ideas: A weak positive feedback between sea level and the planetary albedo B. Marzeion 10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021
- SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios V. Couplet et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025
- Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods C. Yue et al. 10.3390/atmos12121569
- Hysteresis and orbital pacing of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023
- Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet N. Bochow et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
- Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse L. Pan et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abf7787
- A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0 J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021
- Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions D. Höning et al. 10.1029/2022GL101827
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of action M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae004
Latest update: 17 Sep 2025
Short summary
We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in...
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