Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Jan 2019
Research article |
| 24 Jan 2019
| 24 Jan 2019
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake
Nicole S. Lovenduski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Stephen G. Yeager
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Keith Lindsay
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Matthew C. Long
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
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34 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Toward Regional Marine Ecological Forecasting Using Global Climate Model Predictions From Subseasonal to Decadal Timescales: Bottlenecks and Recommendations S. Minobe et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.855965
- Can we provide appropriate tools to measure the effectiveness of climate agreements? The Paris agreement and the role of the European External Action Service U. Brandt & G. Svendsen 10.1007/s43545-023-00800-w
- Multi‐Century Changes in the Ocean Carbon Cycle Controlled by the Tropical Oceans and the Southern Ocean M. Chikamoto & P. DiNezio 10.1029/2021GB007090
- Ocean biogeochemical reconstructions to estimate historical ocean CO2 uptake R. Bernardello et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024
- Detecting Regional Modes of Variability in Observation‐Based Surface Ocean pCO2 P. Landschützer et al. 10.1029/2018GL081756
- Large spread in interannual variance of atmospheric CO2 concentration across CMIP6 Earth System Models V. Martín-Gómez et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00532-x
- Simulations With the Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) M. Long et al. 10.1029/2021MS002647
- Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model H. Li et al. 10.5194/esd-14-101-2023
- Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales G. Meehl et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x
- Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean K. Krumhardt et al. 10.1029/2020GB006531
- Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects S. Power et al. 10.1126/science.aay9165
- Predictable Variations of the Carbon Sinks and Atmospheric CO2Growth in a Multi‐Model Framework T. Ilyina et al. 10.1029/2020GL090695
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- Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans C. Rousseaux et al. 10.3390/rs13061051
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- Dynamic partitioning of tropical Indian Ocean surface waters using ocean colour data — management and modelling applications J. Schwarz 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111308
- Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models J. Terhaar 10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024
- Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) D. Smith et al. 10.3389/fclim.2022.955414
- Multi-temporal variability forecast of particulate organic carbon in the Indonesian seas A. Wahyudi et al. 10.1007/s10661-023-10981-9
- Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean S. Mogen et al. 10.1029/2023EF003605
- Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System R. Brady et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x
- Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 R. Séférian et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0
- Quantification of Chaotic Intrinsic Variability of Sea‐Air CO2 Fluxes at Interannual Timescales M. Gehlen et al. 10.1029/2020GL088304
- Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictability F. Fransner et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00386
- Global Carbon Budget 2023 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023
- External Forcing Explains Recent Decadal Variability of the Ocean Carbon Sink G. McKinley et al. 10.1029/2019AV000149
34 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Inherent uncertainty disguises attribution of reduced atmospheric CO2 growth to CO2 emission reductions for up to a decade A. Spring et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abc443
- Omega-3 fatty acids accelerate fledging in an avian marine predator: a potential role of cognition J. Lamarre et al. 10.1242/jeb.235929
- Toward Regional Marine Ecological Forecasting Using Global Climate Model Predictions From Subseasonal to Decadal Timescales: Bottlenecks and Recommendations S. Minobe et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.855965
- Can we provide appropriate tools to measure the effectiveness of climate agreements? The Paris agreement and the role of the European External Action Service U. Brandt & G. Svendsen 10.1007/s43545-023-00800-w
- Multi‐Century Changes in the Ocean Carbon Cycle Controlled by the Tropical Oceans and the Southern Ocean M. Chikamoto & P. DiNezio 10.1029/2021GB007090
- Ocean biogeochemical reconstructions to estimate historical ocean CO2 uptake R. Bernardello et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024
- Detecting Regional Modes of Variability in Observation‐Based Surface Ocean pCO2 P. Landschützer et al. 10.1029/2018GL081756
- Large spread in interannual variance of atmospheric CO2 concentration across CMIP6 Earth System Models V. Martín-Gómez et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00532-x
- Simulations With the Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) M. Long et al. 10.1029/2021MS002647
- Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model H. Li et al. 10.5194/esd-14-101-2023
- Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales G. Meehl et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x
- Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean K. Krumhardt et al. 10.1029/2020GB006531
- Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects S. Power et al. 10.1126/science.aay9165
- Predictable Variations of the Carbon Sinks and Atmospheric CO2Growth in a Multi‐Model Framework T. Ilyina et al. 10.1029/2020GL090695
- The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 S. Yeager et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022
- Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers T. Frölicher et al. 10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020
- Estimation of Ocean Biogeochemical Parameters in an Earth System Model Using the Dual One Step Ahead Smoother: A Twin Experiment T. Singh et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.775394
- Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect‐Model Framework A. Spring & T. Ilyina 10.1029/2019GL085311
- Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle A. Spring et al. 10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
- NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP I. Bethke et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021
- Integrating human dimensions in decadal-scale prediction for marine social–ecological systems: lighting the grey zone J. Melbourne-Thomas et al. 10.1093/icesjms/fsac228
- Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans C. Rousseaux et al. 10.3390/rs13061051
- High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system N. Lovenduski et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c55
- Dynamic partitioning of tropical Indian Ocean surface waters using ocean colour data — management and modelling applications J. Schwarz 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111308
- Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models J. Terhaar 10.5194/bg-21-3903-2024
- Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) D. Smith et al. 10.3389/fclim.2022.955414
- Multi-temporal variability forecast of particulate organic carbon in the Indonesian seas A. Wahyudi et al. 10.1007/s10661-023-10981-9
- Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean S. Mogen et al. 10.1029/2023EF003605
- Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System R. Brady et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x
- Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 R. Séférian et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0
- Quantification of Chaotic Intrinsic Variability of Sea‐Air CO2 Fluxes at Interannual Timescales M. Gehlen et al. 10.1029/2020GL088304
- Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictability F. Fransner et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00386
- Global Carbon Budget 2023 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023
- External Forcing Explains Recent Decadal Variability of the Ocean Carbon Sink G. McKinley et al. 10.1029/2019AV000149
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years in advance. This is important because fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide is largely responsible for anthropogenic global warming and because carbon dioxide emission management and global carbon cycle budgeting exercises can benefit from foreknowledge of ocean carbon absorption. The promising results from this new forecast system justify the need for additional oceanic observations.
This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years...
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