Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Jan 2019
Research article |
| 24 Jan 2019
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake
Nicole S. Lovenduski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Stephen G. Yeager
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Keith Lindsay
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Matthew C. Long
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
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Cited
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Estimation of Ocean Biogeochemical Parameters in an Earth System Model Using the Dual One Step Ahead Smoother: A Twin Experiment T. Singh et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.775394
- Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect‐Model Framework A. Spring & T. Ilyina 10.1029/2019GL085311
- Inherent uncertainty disguises attribution of reduced atmospheric CO2 growth to CO2 emission reductions for up to a decade A. Spring et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abc443
- Omega-3 fatty acids accelerate fledging in an avian marine predator: a potential role of cognition J. Lamarre et al. 10.1242/jeb.235929
- Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle A. Spring et al. 10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
- Multi‐Century Changes in the Ocean Carbon Cycle Controlled by the Tropical Oceans and the Southern Ocean M. Chikamoto & P. DiNezio 10.1029/2021GB007090
- NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP I. Bethke et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021
- Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans C. Rousseaux et al. 10.3390/rs13061051
- Detecting Regional Modes of Variability in Observation‐Based Surface Ocean p CO 2 P. Landschützer et al. 10.1029/2018GL081756
- High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system N. Lovenduski et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c55
- Dynamic partitioning of tropical Indian Ocean surface waters using ocean colour data — management and modelling applications J. Schwarz 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111308
- Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction W. Merryfield et al. 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1
- Simulations With the Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) M. Long et al. 10.1029/2021MS002647
- Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales G. Meehl et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x
- Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean K. Krumhardt et al. 10.1029/2020GB006531
- Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects S. Power et al. 10.1126/science.aay9165
- Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System R. Brady et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x
- Predictable Variations of the Carbon Sinks and Atmospheric CO 2 Growth in a Multi‐Model Framework T. Ilyina et al. 10.1029/2020GL090695
- Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 R. Séférian et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0
- Quantification of Chaotic Intrinsic Variability of Sea‐Air CO 2 Fluxes at Interannual Timescales M. Gehlen et al. 10.1029/2020GL088304
- Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictability F. Fransner et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00386
- External Forcing Explains Recent Decadal Variability of the Ocean Carbon Sink G. McKinley et al. 10.1029/2019AV000149
- Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers T. Frölicher et al. 10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Estimation of Ocean Biogeochemical Parameters in an Earth System Model Using the Dual One Step Ahead Smoother: A Twin Experiment T. Singh et al. 10.3389/fmars.2022.775394
- Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect‐Model Framework A. Spring & T. Ilyina 10.1029/2019GL085311
- Inherent uncertainty disguises attribution of reduced atmospheric CO2 growth to CO2 emission reductions for up to a decade A. Spring et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abc443
- Omega-3 fatty acids accelerate fledging in an avian marine predator: a potential role of cognition J. Lamarre et al. 10.1242/jeb.235929
- Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle A. Spring et al. 10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
- Multi‐Century Changes in the Ocean Carbon Cycle Controlled by the Tropical Oceans and the Southern Ocean M. Chikamoto & P. DiNezio 10.1029/2021GB007090
- NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP I. Bethke et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021
- Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans C. Rousseaux et al. 10.3390/rs13061051
- Detecting Regional Modes of Variability in Observation‐Based Surface Ocean p CO 2 P. Landschützer et al. 10.1029/2018GL081756
- High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system N. Lovenduski et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5c55
- Dynamic partitioning of tropical Indian Ocean surface waters using ocean colour data — management and modelling applications J. Schwarz 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111308
- Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction W. Merryfield et al. 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1
- Simulations With the Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) M. Long et al. 10.1029/2021MS002647
- Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales G. Meehl et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x
- Potential Predictability of Net Primary Production in the Ocean K. Krumhardt et al. 10.1029/2020GB006531
- Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects S. Power et al. 10.1126/science.aay9165
- Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System R. Brady et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x
- Predictable Variations of the Carbon Sinks and Atmospheric CO 2 Growth in a Multi‐Model Framework T. Ilyina et al. 10.1029/2020GL090695
- Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 R. Séférian et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0
- Quantification of Chaotic Intrinsic Variability of Sea‐Air CO 2 Fluxes at Interannual Timescales M. Gehlen et al. 10.1029/2020GL088304
- Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictability F. Fransner et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00386
- External Forcing Explains Recent Decadal Variability of the Ocean Carbon Sink G. McKinley et al. 10.1029/2019AV000149
- Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers T. Frölicher et al. 10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020
Latest update: 28 Mar 2023
Short summary
This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years in advance. This is important because fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide is largely responsible for anthropogenic global warming and because carbon dioxide emission management and global carbon cycle budgeting exercises can benefit from foreknowledge of ocean carbon absorption. The promising results from this new forecast system justify the need for additional oceanic observations.
This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years...
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