doi:https://doi.org/

The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with ESD-related topics, the recent preprints posted in ESD’s discussion forum, as well as final revised papers published recently in ESD.

05 Aug 2025

Physical characterization of the boundary separating safe and unsafe AMOC overshoot behavior

Aurora Faure Ragani and Henk A. Dijkstra

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1287-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1287-2025, 2025

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04 Aug 2025

Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention

Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Tom Powell, Ashish Ghadiali, Ben Smith, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, 2025

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01 Aug 2025

Diagnosing aerosol–meteorological interactions on snow within Earth system models: a proof-of-concept study over High Mountain Asia

Chayan Roychoudhury, Cenlin He, Rajesh Kumar, and Avelino F. Arellano Jr.

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1237–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025, 2025

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01 Aug 2025

Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC

Amber A. Boot and Henk A. Dijkstra

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1221–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025, 2025

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30 Jul 2025

Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change

Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1197–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, 2025

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29 Jul 2025

Dynamical System Metrics and Weather Regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European Heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Ines Dillerup, Alexander Lemburg, Sebastian Buschow, and Joaquim G. Pinto

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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28 Jul 2025

Nitrogen deposition and climate drive plant nitrogen uptake while soil factors drive nitrogen use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems

Helena Vallicrosa, Katrin Fleischer, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Jakub Černý, Di Tian, Angeliki Kourmouli, Carolina Mayoral, Diego Grados, Mingzhen Lu, and César Terrer

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1183–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1183-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1183-2025, 2025

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25 Jul 2025

Challenges and Opportunities for Understanding Societal Impacts of Climate Extremes

Gabriele Messori, Emily Boyd, Joakim Nivre, and Elena Raffetti

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3451,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3451, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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25 Jul 2025

Explain the Black Box for the Sake of Science: The Scientific Method in the Era of Generative Artificial Intelligence

Gianmarco Mengaldo

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3509,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3509, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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25 Jul 2025

Accounting for empirical global soil organic characteristics and moisture heterogeneities in soil organic decomposition scheme of land surface models

Elodie Salmon, Bertrand Guenet, and Agnès Ducharne

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3511,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3511, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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23 Jul 2025

Quantifying changes in seasonal temperature variations using a functional data analysis approach

Eva Holtanová, Jan Koláček, and Lukas Brunner

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3360,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3360, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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22 Jul 2025

The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review

Florian Ulrich Jehn, John-Oliver Engler, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Magdalena Wache, Ekaterina Ilin, Laura Cook, Lalitha S. Sundaram, Frederic Hanusch, and Luke Kemp

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1053–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025, 2025

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21 Jul 2025

| Highlight paper

Leveraging the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 to understand the climatic trend regimes relevant for solar energy applications over Europe

Abhay Devasthale, Sandra Andersson, Erik Engström, Frank Kaspar, Jörg Trentmann, Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff, Jan Fokke Meirink, Erik Kjellström, Tomas Landelius, Manu Anna Thomas, and Karl-Göran Karlsson

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025, 2025

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18 Jul 2025

Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds

Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1153–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025, 2025

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18 Jul 2025

Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors

Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1135–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025, 2025

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18 Jul 2025

Bridging Science and Practice on Multi-Hazard Risk Drivers: Stakeholder Insights from Five Pilot Studies in Europe

Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padron, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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17 Jul 2025

Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution

Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025

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17 Jul 2025

A causality-based method for multi-model comparison: application to relationships between atmospheric, oceanic and marine biogeochemical variables

Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025, 2025

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17 Jul 2025

Yalalt Nyamgerel, Yeongcheol Han, Soon Do Hur, Hyemi Kim, Songyi Kim, Jangil Moon, Barbara Stenni, and Jeonghoon Lee

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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16 Jul 2025

On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations

Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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15 Jul 2025

Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025

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14 Jul 2025

A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1001–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025, 2025

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11 Jul 2025

| Highlight paper

Delineating the technosphere: definition, categorization, and characteristics

Eric D. Galbraith, Abdullah Al Faisal, Tanya Matitia, William Fajzel, Ian Hatton, Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann, and Dominik Wiedenhofer

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 979–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025, 2025

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10 Jul 2025

The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements

Gideon Futerman, Mira Adhikari, Alistair Duffey, Yuanchao Fan, Jessica Gurevitch, Peter Irvine, and Claudia Wieners

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 939–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025, 2025

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08 Jul 2025

Trends and spatial variation of oceanic dimethyl sulfide under a warming climate revealed by an artificial neural network model

Lyu Yan and Wei-Lei Wang

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3185,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3185, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 3 comments)

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08 Jul 2025

Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation

Arim Yoon, Cathy Hohenegger, Jiawei Bao, and Lukas Brunner

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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04 Jul 2025

The Preseason Warming of the Indian Ocean Resulting in Soybean Failure in U.S.

Menghan Li, Xichen Li, Yi Zhou, and Yurong Hou

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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01 Jul 2025

Improving historical trends in the INFERNO fire model using the Human Development Index

Joao C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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27 Jun 2025

A simple physical model for glacial cycles

Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025

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26 Jun 2025

Peat oxic and anoxic controls of Sphagnum decomposition rates in the Holocene Peatland Model decomposition module estimated from litterbag data

Henning Teickner, Edzer Pebesma, and Klaus-Holger Knorr

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 891–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025, 2025

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24 Jun 2025

Historical Climate and Future Projection in the North Atlantic and Arctic: Insights from EC-Earth3 High-Resolution Simulations

Mehdi Pasha Karami, Torben Koenigk, Shiyu Wang, René Navarro Labastida, Tim Kruschke, Aude Carreric, Pablo Ortega, Klaus Wyser, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Agatha M. de Boer, Marie Sicard, and Aitor Aldama Campino

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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23 Jun 2025

Simulating regional impacts of irrigation on the atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle using Earth System Model physics

Pierre Tiengou, Agnès Ducharne, and Frédérique Cheruy

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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18 Jun 2025

The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system

Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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16 Jun 2025

Understanding European Heatwaves with Variational Autoencoders

Aytaç Paçal, Birgit Hassler, Katja Weigel, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Veronika Eyring

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)

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16 Jun 2025

Improving Terrestrial Carbon Flux Simulations With Machine Learning and Global Earth Observations

Christian Seiler

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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12 Jun 2025

Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes

Yigit Uckan, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Kelley De Polt, and René Orth

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 869–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025, 2025

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12 Jun 2025

Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments

Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442, 2025

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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11 Jun 2025

Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6

Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025

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11 Jun 2025

Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model

Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 841–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025, 2025

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