A new process-based modelling framework, FLaMe v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane version 1.0), is developed to simulate methane (CH₄) emissions from lakes at large scales. FLaMe couples the dynamics of organic carbon, oxygen and methane in lakes and rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach for the simulation of CH₄ emissions across a large number of lakes. The model evaluation suggests that FLaMe captures the sub-annual and spatial variability of CH₄ emissions well.

Vegetation and fire regimes have changed over the last 21,000 years. Here, we compile pollen and charcoal records from the Neotropics to assess tree cover and fire activity trajectories and identify their main controls. We found that landscapes were shaped by an interplay of temperature, atmospheric CO₂, precipitation, vegetation-fire feedback, and human impacts. These drivers varied in importance across regions and time periods, leading to distinct responses under different boundary conditions.

We present 30 year long initialized climate predictions run with the EC-Earth3 model. The predictions show high skill in most regions for near-surface temperatures, with some added skill from initialization for the first decade, but only very limited added skill beyond. The predictions exhibit drift associated with a persistent slowdown in Atlantic Meridonial Overturning Circulation , leaving the initialised predictions in a different climate state than the historical climate simulations.

We investigate multi-year predictability of hot-dry compound events, and their univariate hot and dry contributions, using the CMIP6 multi-model decadal hindcast experiments, focusing on the forecast years 2–5. We find that hot-dry compound extremes and hot extremes are skillfully predicted in many regions, but lower skill is found for dry extremes. The skill is largely due to long-term trends in response to external forcing, while the added skill from initialisation is limited to a few regions.

Global temperatures will continue to increase over twenty-first century; in contrast to rainfall, where the sign of change is unknown in some regions, such as New Zealand. These uncertain rainfall projections have great implications for future drought. In a wetter future, the increases in rainfall offset some of the temperature induced drying, leading to a small increase in drought severity. In a drier future the reduction in rainfall exacerbates the drying due to increasing temperatures.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element in the Earth System that affects the global climate. We often use models to understand how the AMOC tips. However, these models are flawed. Here we study the effect of these flaws on the AMOC multistable regime in a climate model. We artificially add additional flaws to the model. We find that AMOC stability can be affected by such flaws and a reductionof such flaws in climate models is therefore thought to be essential.

It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will ultimately increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.

Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.

We analyze storms over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the German Bight and how their statistics change over past, present, and future. We look at data from many different climate model runs that cover a variety of possible future climate states. We find that storms are generally predicted to be weaker in the future, even though the wind directions that typically happen during storms occur more frequently. We also find that the most extreme storms may become more likely than nowadays.

A critique of Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history: First, the proposition that real gross domestic product (GDP) should go to zero in a steady-state economy is falsified. Second, the hypothesis that "the long arm of history" influences the present is shown to be more complex over the past 2000 years than initially presented. Further work on this hypothesis may yield important results for the relation of monetary value to energy. Of interest to economists, anthropologists, & archeologists.

The evolution of irrigation under climate change is analyzed between 1950 and 2100. Results indicate that the influence of irrigation on evapotranspiration in irrigated areas increases in the future (compared to an historical period). Also, the effect of irrigation on water resources is also higher in the future than in the historical period. Finally, we identify areas where future hydroclimate conditions can limit irrigation, or areas where irrigation can increase tensions around water use.

The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.

We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to compute the future rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST) for radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and tropospheric aerosols, provided by the IPCC AR5 and AR6 reports. We show that the AR6 updates to RF lead to a 0.2 to 0.4 °C rise in GMST at the end of this century, for the same underlying Shared Socioeconomic Pathway emissions projections of GHGs and aerosols, relative to GMST found using RF from AR5.

A computationally inexpensive climate model analog method yields skillful climate predictions across timescales, from seasons to multiple years, complementing existing climate prediction systems and potentially providing valuable information for sectors like agriculture and energy.

This study explores the climate impact of reduced Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets using the Late Pliocene as an analogue for future climate. Results reveal a 9.5 °C rise in Antarctic surface temperature, 16 % sea ice loss, and increased precipitation. The simulations highlight weakened Antarctic Bottom Water formation and Southern Annular Mode persistence. By isolating albedo effects, this research provides insights into global climate dynamics and feedbacks.

Dynamic climate change metrics are more robust to get strong sustainable designs. This work aims to support adoption of such metrics by environmental assessment communities thanks to a: 1. clear and pedagogical presentation of up-to-date climate equations, climate parameters and associated uncertainties, 2. open-source assessment tool release, 3. dynamic metrics interpretation support. Adoption of new characterisation factors for temperature change metrics are recommended in future IPCC report.

In this context, our study uses reprocessed monthly remote sensing data as observational references to assess the long-term trends and seasonal variations of simulated data by models in China from 2003 to 2019. Our findings reveal that while the DGVMs generally capture the seasonality of LAI and GPP, there are notable discrepancies in their spatial accuracy. Specifically, our results indicate a tendency to underestimate forested areas, overestimate grasslands, and misrepresent cropland dynamics.