Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with ESD-related topics, the recent preprints posted in ESD’s discussion forum, as well as final revised papers published recently in ESD.
27 Jun 2025
A simple physical model for glacial cycles
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025
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26 Jun 2025
Peat oxic and anoxic controls of Sphagnum decomposition rates in the Holocene Peatland Model decomposition module estimated from litterbag data
Henning Teickner, Edzer Pebesma, and Klaus-Holger Knorr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 891–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025, 2025
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24 Jun 2025
Historical Climate and Future Projection in the North Atlantic and Arctic: Insights from EC-Earth3 High-Resolution Simulations
Mehdi Pasha Karami, Torben Koenigk, Shiyu Wang, René Navarro Labastida, Tim Kruschke, Aude Carreric, Pablo Ortega, Klaus Wyser, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Agatha M. de Boer, Marie Sicard, and Aitor Aldama Campino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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23 Jun 2025
Simulating regional impacts of irrigation on the atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle using Earth System Model physics
Pierre Tiengou, Agnès Ducharne, and Frédérique Cheruy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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18 Jun 2025
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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16 Jun 2025
Understanding European Heatwaves with Variational Autoencoders
Aytaç Paçal, Birgit Hassler, Katja Weigel, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Jun 2025
Improving Terrestrial Carbon Flux Simulations With Machine Learning and Global Earth Observations
Christian Seiler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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12 Jun 2025
Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes
Yigit Uckan, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Kelley De Polt, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 869–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025, 2025
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12 Jun 2025
Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments
Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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11 Jun 2025
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
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11 Jun 2025
Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model
Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 841–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025, 2025
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04 Jun 2025
Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 753–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, 2025
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04 Jun 2025
The effect of noise on the stability of convection in a conceptual model of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
Koen J. van der Heijden, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Anna S. von der Heydt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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02 Jun 2025
Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model
Bertrand Decharme and Jeanne Colin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 729–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025, 2025
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28 May 2025
ESD Ideas: Near-real-time preliminary detection of carbon dioxide source and sink areas using a Laplacian filter
Yana Savytska, Viktor Smolii, and Nils Weitzel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 721–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-721-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-721-2025, 2025
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28 May 2025
Enhanced Climate Reproducibility Testing with False Discovery Rate Correction
Michael E. Kelleher and Salil Mahajan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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27 May 2025
Setting up the physical principles of resilience in a model of the Earth System
Orfeu Bertolami and Magnus Nyström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2163,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2163, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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21 May 2025
Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics
Stéphane Vannitsem, X. San Liang, and Carlos A. Pires
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025, 2025
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19 May 2025
Catalogue of Strong Nonlinear Surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6
Joran R. Angevaare and Sybren S. Drijfhout
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2039,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2039, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 May 2025
On defining climate by means of an ensemble
Gábor Drótos and Tamás Bódai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2030,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2030, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 May 2025
Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm
Jerome Sauer, François Massonnet, Giuseppe Zappa, and Francesco Ragone
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 683–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025, 2025
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06 May 2025
Unravelling the future role of internal variability in South Asian near-surface wind speed
Cheng Shen, Hui-Shuang Yuan, Zhi-Bo Li, Jinling Piao, Youli Chang, and Deliang Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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05 May 2025
Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 667–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025, 2025
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05 May 2025
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2,https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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30 Apr 2025
Remote carbon cycle changes are overlooked impacts of land cover and land management changes
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 631–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, 2025
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