It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will ultimately increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.

Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.

We analyze storms over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the German Bight and how their statistics change over past, present, and future. We look at data from many different climate model runs that cover a variety of possible future climate states. We find that storms are generally predicted to be weaker in the future, even though the wind directions that typically happen during storms occur more frequently. We also find that the most extreme storms may become more likely than nowadays.

A critique of Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history: First, the proposition that real gross domestic product (GDP) should go to zero in a steady-state economy is falsified. Second, the hypothesis that "the long arm of history" influences the present is shown to be more complex over the past 2000 years than initially presented. Further work on this hypothesis may yield important results for the relation of monetary value to energy. Of interest to economists, anthropologists, & archeologists.

The evolution of irrigation under climate change is analyzed between 1950 and 2100. Results indicate that the influence of irrigation on evapotranspiration in irrigated areas increases in the future (compared to an historical period). Also, the effect of irrigation on water resources is also higher in the future than in the historical period. Finally, we identify areas where future hydroclimate conditions can limit irrigation, or areas where irrigation can increase tensions around water use.

The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.

We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to compute the future rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST) for radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and tropospheric aerosols, provided by the IPCC AR5 and AR6 reports. We show that the AR6 updates to RF lead to a 0.2 to 0.4 °C rise in GMST at the end of this century, for the same underlying Shared Socioeconomic Pathway emissions projections of GHGs and aerosols, relative to GMST found using RF from AR5.

A computationally inexpensive climate model analog method yields skillful climate predictions across timescales, from seasons to multiple years, complementing existing climate prediction systems and potentially providing valuable information for sectors like agriculture and energy.

This study explores the climate impact of reduced Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets using the Late Pliocene as an analogue for future climate. Results reveal a 9.5 °C rise in Antarctic surface temperature, 16 % sea ice loss, and increased precipitation. The simulations highlight weakened Antarctic Bottom Water formation and Southern Annular Mode persistence. By isolating albedo effects, this research provides insights into global climate dynamics and feedbacks.

Dynamic climate change metrics are more robust to get strong sustainable designs. This work aims to support adoption of such metrics by environmental assessment communities thanks to a: 1. clear and pedagogical presentation of up-to-date climate equations, climate parameters and associated uncertainties, 2. open-source assessment tool release, 3. dynamic metrics interpretation support. Adoption of new characterisation factors for temperature change metrics are recommended in future IPCC report.

In this context, our study uses reprocessed monthly remote sensing data as observational references to assess the long-term trends and seasonal variations of simulated data by models in China from 2003 to 2019. Our findings reveal that while the DGVMs generally capture the seasonality of LAI and GPP, there are notable discrepancies in their spatial accuracy. Specifically, our results indicate a tendency to underestimate forested areas, overestimate grasslands, and misrepresent cropland dynamics.

Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variance. Three distinct phases of physical variability are identified: from 1850 to 1990, internal variability dominates; from 1990 to 2050, dynamical adjustment related to AMOC decline takes over; after 2050, differences between forcing scenarios become dominant. Beyond these physical factors, model variability remains the major source of uncertainty.

Predicting sudden changes in ecosystems is a major challenge in ecology. Using a new framework called the non-equilibrium landscape and flux theory, we studied how ecosystems shift between stable states. Focusing on coral reefs, we identified early warning signals that detect critical transitions earlier than traditional methods. This approach could help predict catastrophic changes in various ecosystems, offering valuable insights for conservation efforts.

We add a new dynamic component – an ice sheet model simulating the Greenland ice sheet – to an Earth system model that already captures the global climate evolution including ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice. Under a strong warming scenario, the global warming of 10 °C over 250 yrs is dominating the climate evolution. Changes from the ice-climate interaction are mainly local yet impacting the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet. Hence, ice-climate feedbacks should be considered beyond 2100.

We conducted a study on the long-term effects of northern high-latitude permafrost responses and feedbacks under scenarios where temperatures either stabilize or overshoot. Our findings indicate that the additional warming due to permafrost carbon emissions is significantly greater during the cooling phase of temperature overshoot scenarios. Moreover, we discovered that the sensitivity of permafrost area to global warming is not uniform; it peaks between 1.5 °C and 2 °C.

This study highlights how the representation of the vegetation in a climate model triggers the atmospheric feedback controlling the top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Using simulations of the mid-Holocene and the preindustrial climates, we analyse cascading effects involving local snow-vegetation interactions, as well as tropical atmospheric water content. The relative roles of bare soil evaporation, photosynthesis and critical temperature for boreal tree regeneration are discussed.

This study examines how changes in Earth's ice volume influence geomagnetic events, such as reversals and incomplete reversals, over the past 49 million years. We find that increased ice volume correlates with more frequent geomagnetic events, while rapid ice sheet melting under future warming could reduce their occurrence. These findings enhance our understanding of Earth's magnetic dynamics and their potential link to climate change.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element in the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Under varying freshwater flux forcing parameters or climate change, the AMOC may collapse from a relatively strong state to a substantially weaker state. It is important to understand the dynamics of the AMOC collapse in the CESM. We show that the stability of the AMOC in the CESM is controlled by only a few feedback processes.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is sensitive to changing surface forcing conditions. Under future greenhouse gas emission reductions, it was shown in a conceptual model that it may be possible to avoid a collapse of the AMOC. Using a detailed global ocean model, we clarify the physics of the collapse and recovery behaviour of the AMOC. The potential to avoid an AMOC collapse is tightly linked to a delicate balance of salt fluxes in the northern North Atlantic.